Predicting the Impact of Renewable Energy

I couldn’t make this year’s Renewable Energy Finance Forum – Wall Street, though I did peruse the notes that my colleague Tom Konrad of AltEnergyStocks forwarded to me.  Among the many details, I noticed this rather broad statement: “Historically, we have under-predicted.”  He went on to explain: “NREL’s 1998 prediction of the penetration of renewables for 2020 was only 30% of  the 2013 number.”  In other words, we’re headed to beat the expectation for 2020 by an enormous margin.

Obviously, this is good news for the renewable energy industry – and for you and me and all the other people out there with lungs, who are the beneficiaries of all this clean energy.  But it’s also a reminder of how little we know of the future that lies before us.  I’m reminded of the article by author Rebecca Solnit that I cited in my post Hope, Activism and Climate Change, in which I close:

The most striking aspect of Solnit’s work of art here is a kind of intellectual humility that defines good thinking today.  Our position needs to be: we really don’t know how all this is going to turn out.  Optimists think everything will be fine; pessimists don’t see a way out.  Solnit concludes:  “Will we get (there)? I don’t know. Neither do you.”

Tagged with: , , , , ,
Posted in Renewables - Business
2 comments on “Predicting the Impact of Renewable Energy
  1. Tom says:

    That was not my quote, it was one of the presenters’. I agree with it, though.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Download a free e-copy of Craig’s first book, a #1 best-seller in energy on “Renewable Energy–Facts and Fantasies.”

Want to understand the thorny challenges in technology, economics, and politics that face the clean energy industry? Download the book.




Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 241 other followers

%d bloggers like this: