I’m proud that Tom Konrad, famed stock market analyst and editor of AltEnergyStocks.com, offers his comments here frequently. In a post yesterday, he offered me guidance in wrapping my wits around the issue of green jobs, directing me to his thoughtful article on Forbes.com, linked below. There, Tom looks at the issue from the standpoint of basic microeconomics’ “production function” which suggests that labor can be freely substituted for capital and energy. He provides examples recently, including this one: 

Shifting people out of their cars and onto mass transit will create jobs because there will have to be drivers and people managing the transit system, where before no one was paid to drive. To the extent that the transit system can be paid for out of the reduced fuel costs and car ownership costs of the former drivers turned riders, the number of jobs created will be a pure economic gain.

But I wonder if it’s that simple. Even in this apparently straightforward example, doesn’t one have to ask about all the people associated with the shrinking auto industry? Moving individuals out of their cars and onto buses also affects everyone associated with the petroleum industry and the entire auto aftermarket: tires, smog checks, brake jobs, etc.

Having said this, from everything I’ve read on the subject, I’m convinced that “going green” represents a huge net gain in jobs, at least in the short-term. I can’t imagine how anyone can argue that the process of retrofitting our buildings for energy efficiency will not employ many times more people than will be lost in producing the electricity that is currently being wasted; principally these are people working in coal and natural gas.

It’s equally hard to argue that installing PV, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, hydro, and biomass facilities won’t employ more people than will be lost from the ranks of the traditional sources of energy – at least for a period of time. But that’s where it gets complicated, and I’m not sure anyone has the answer. What happens when all this stuff is installed and operational? Sure, there’s maintenance, but it’s minimal, since the fuel is free – and most of it’s coming at us non-stop from a hot yellow ball in the sky 93 million miles away.

And what about electric transportation? The migration from internal combustion engines to EVs is going to require a ton of people in batteries, smart-grid, telematics (the information and communications technology – “ICT” — connected with all this), not to mention the manufacturing of the EVs themselves. But now you have vehicles that go 500,000 miles before they even need a tune-up. That’s a lot of displaced auto mechanics.

Here’s a conclusion that’s fairly safe: The vast majority of what you read on this subject is horribly slanted. In most of what I’ve come across, figures are presented out of context (or made up out of whole cloth) to support a certain political ideology. The idea, for instance, that environmentalism is at odds with economic prosperity, a concept so dear to right wing demagogues, is totally specious, yet it’s easy to make that point and convince an audience of ignorant and angry people if you present certain numbers and omit others.

But let’s be honest with ourselves: it’s equally disingenuous to suggest that every innovation in clean energy and transportation will add jobs. Renewable energy is about technology, and technology has a tendency to displace human labor.  At the end of the day, the real imperative to move to clean energy and transportation is the health and safety of every living thing on Earth.  That’s at least somewhat important, isn’t it?

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Here’s a wonderful article that gets at an issue I come across constantly: the implication that environmentalism and job growth are opposed to one another.  Considering we have the option to put literally millions of people back to work in renewable energy, energy storage, electric transportation, smart-grid, etc., I’m always stunned when I hear politicians peddling the idea that eco-friendliness must come at the expense of the economy.  

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Here’s an article about a breakthrough in solar power efficiency, which serves as a reminder of an important fact: the cost of renewable energy can only fall, while the cost of fossil fuels can only rise.

I’m not saying that there is no technology involved in extracting fossil fuels and building nuclear power plants; in fact, quite the contrary. But renewable energy is completely based on technology, principally materials science and engineering, focused mainly on developing more efficient ways of converting the energy from the sun, in one form or another, into useful work.

Insofar as the Earth receives 6000 times more energy from the sun each minute than all 7 billion of us are using, it’s only a matter of time until breakthroughs like the one above get us to the point where we have an abundance of clean, cheap power.

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I spoke at the Mark Taper Auditorium in downtown Los Angeles (pictured here) yesterday, introducing 2GreenEnergy to an audience of entrepreneurs, each of whom came with an idea, looking for investment capital. It’s always exciting to get behind a microphone and belt out the message:

 • Figuring out where we’re going vis-à-vis energy is fascinating, but it’s not easy. We face tough realities in terms of the technology, the economics, and the politics.

 • I’ll do everything I can to take good ideas forward, presenting solid business plans to an ever-growing set of investors, each hungry for exposure into clean energy and electric transportation.

This went really well; I got a lot of compliments on the talk, and met some terrific people on some fantastically important missions.

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I’m speaking at the “TechBrew MegaMixer” this Saturday afternoon at the Mark Taper Auditorium in downtown Los Angeles. If you happen to live locally and are looking for something to do, please feel free to stop by. There is no charge for admission, and, having attended these events in the past, they’re really pretty cool. The basic concept is getting good entrepreneurial ideas for cleantech products and services in front of potential investors. Sounds like a legitimate concept, doesn’t it?

The event runs from 1 PM – 5 PM; I hope to see you there.

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Assessment of energy investment in the world shows a clear path to bigger investment in renewable than non renewable. Clean energy technology is making clear progress globally, in some countries current and planned deployment of renewable far outstrip investment in non renewable energy.

More aggressive clean energy policies are required, including the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and implementation of transparent, predictable and adaptive incentives for cleaner, more efficient energy options. Due to government support and investors strategy for capital returns, solar PV and wind power are achieving strong growth. However for many developing countries where the natural potential for solar and wind power is even higher, much effort is needed in solar and wind power deployments.

Progress is in all countries of the world in the market for some key energy‐efficient products, such as energy saving fluorescent light bulbs. Much more policy effort and investment is needed to capture the array of energy efficient devices in households, offices, farms and industry. Procurement of energy saving devices has been notably low in developing countries, where energy economy challenge will still be wastage and energy shortage.

Electric vehicles are truly taking off. Major economies have announced targets that together would reach about 7 million vehicle sales per year by 2020.
Investment in procurement of electric vehicles is required in all nations, with the bigger vehicle demand in the worlds developing countries, demand of electric vehicles will be globally high, billions of dollars is waiting for pockets of procurement gurus, all nations are placed in the market place.

Renewable energy market success has been driven by policy support, which has grown considerably in the last decade. Policies continue to evolve to address
market developments. In the case of solar energy, all countries now have sizeable domestic markets for home solar, some countries have deployment of grid solar now dependable national energy supply.

Both utility‐scale and rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) generation have seen a major growth. Wind power also experienced dramatic growth over the last decade;
global installed capacity at the end of 2010 was around 194 GW, up from 17 GW at the end of the year 2000.

Global trend is that wind power will have global annual average growth of 17 percent and solar power 22 percent. These levels have been exceeded in the recent years and currently in many countries.

- Joshua Okomo, Proprietor Environment Stores & Logistics

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As I do most Sundays, I took a bit of a hike the other day – my normal jog/walk, in this case from my home in Santa Ynez, CA (USA) to neighboring Los Olivos, where I had a beer and caught the last quarter of a football game on TV with a few dozen others. I don’t watch too much football, but after seven miles, a bit of numbing feels legitimate. And I tell you what, the folks in the Los Olivos Café and I became fast friends, as we all screamed out loud watching some terrific action, including one of the most spectacular plays in the history of sport.

On my way up there, however, my heart had not been as light, as my thoughts ran to putting my career in perspective. How is it possible that I was so well-embraced in my “past life” as a marketing consultant for high tech, where now I seem to be challenged to get others to see the importance of my ideas?

Several reasons, I’m sure. In the late 20th Century, my job was generating demand for various forms of information technology.  In essence, my task was selling the Fortune 2000 on the idea that they should be using IT as a strategic business weapon, and then showing them how to do it most effectively, using my clients’ products and services.  But how hard was that? At the risk of appearing immodest, I played an important role in making a lot of this happen — but wasn’t a big part of this simply being in the right place at the right time? My clients applauded my work, but how good did it really need to be, given the auspicious circumstances?

Here, I’m swimming upstream, trying to sell a solution to a problem that most people don’t believe exists at all. When you fill up your gas tank, your car goes another 300 miles.  When you flip a switch, your lights come on.  This is all pretty dependable stuff.  And does it cost the ratepayer or driver an arm and a leg? Not really. There are artificial mechanisms in place to make sure everything is nice and affordable.

Yes, there are long-term health and ecological consequences to what we’re doing here — potentially lethal to all living things.  But this is very unlike most of the problems that motivate us to take action.  First, it affects other people.  I live in California.  We don’t burn a single molecule of coal here (though we buy electricity generated from coal in Nevada and Arizona).  Sure there are hundreds of thousands of people getting sick and dying from the aromatics of coal — but, as a lucky Californian, I’m not one of them.

Neither am I a soldier, risking my life to maintain my country’s access to foreign oil.  

So here we have a problem a) that affects other people, and b) whose most terrible effects will be experienced in the future.  Apparently, lots of people wonder:   Is that really a problem at all? In polls, Americans rank environmental issues close to the bottom in terms of importance, and rally around politicians whose themes include dismantling the Environmental Protection Agency and closing the Department of Energy.

I need to come to grips with the fact that my new career as clean energy advocate and business liaison, while it’s richly rewarding, is rather like pushing a rope, climbing a mountain, swimming upstream — call it what you will.   

So an occasional distraction from reality is most certainly in order.   I loved the hike, the football game, and the cold beer.

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Today, January 23, is the 1st day of the Lunar Festival, meaning the Chinese new year, the year of the “Golden Dragon,” with my cell phone buzzing nonstop with messages of Greetings and Good Tidings from Beijing.

In these five days, travelers in China are returning home to celebrate with their families. This once-a-year occasion is most auspicious and important, perhaps like Thanksgiving and Christmas in the United States.

During these five days, the volume of travelers is equal to Amtrak passengers for a year — more than 500 million people, not to mention those returning to work in two weeks’ time.

All over China most companies and manufacturing are closed or all running on skeleton staff.

This is the year for the brave entrepreneur to take ‘leaps of faith’ or ‘leaps of confidence.’  Dragon Years should be good for business, new beginnings and innovation. The Dragon is regarded as the luckiest sign; and there will be a baby boom in China this year.  The fortune-tellers say “There’s no time to waste;  quick action is needed to derive maximum benefit – no sitting on the fence.”

Deng Xiaoping and Vladimir Putin are all well-known dragons, famous for getting things stirred up.  I checked; it’s actually the year of the “Water Dragon”…water is the representative of intelligence and wisdom, flexibility, and softness, yet can also wield great power.

I thought you might want a little bit of information on Chinese tradition.

I will keep you in the loop with my discussions of the three investment opportunities we’re working on.

 

Ken: Yes, thanks very much for writing; I love learning more about the Chinese culture, and I’m sure readers will appreciate this as well.

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Lining up a trip back east for the week of February 13th that includes Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York, and potentially Boston. Will be conducting interviews for “Renewable Energy – Following the Money,” but also meeting several clean energy entrepreneurs I’d like to help along their way. Will also stay with an old college buddy – and maybe a second. Should be quite a tour. Renting a car and hoping for good weather.

It’s amazing how certain things are dirt-cheap nowadays, while other prices have skyrocketed. I normally buy one-way plane tickets, since my itineraries are flexible. One-way from Santa Barbara to Dulles International (Washington, DC): $171. Makes me glad I’m not Greyhound, trying to sell a $126 ticket for a bus that takes almost three days to arrive.

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David is one of the world’s top experts on the water industry, an arena with many obvious ties to energy, e.g., water is a critical ingredient in generating most forms of energy, and it takes energy to pump and purify water.  A shortage of one means a shortage of the other. And, of course, they’re both inextricably tied to a third issue of some importance: the world food supply.

Fascinating, yet scary stuff. More later.

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