Posts Tagged by adoption curve
Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
| May 10, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Here’s another post on the EV adoption curve that I put on Renewable Energy World in which I claim that range anxiety will have a smaller-than-predicted effect on EV sales.
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Prediction: The Adoption Curve for Electric Vehicles — No Problem for the Grid
| May 7, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
As I mentioned the other day, I’m trying to “get out more” and blog on other sites. Earlier today, I wrote on EnergyBlogs.com that I foresee a world in which those with a reasonable case for EVs simply buy them, charge them in at night, and enjoy eco-friendly, low-cost daily driving—commuting to work, running errands, etc. Only 22% of Americans drive more than 40 miles per day. The market for EVs in the US is huge — but I see no reason to believe that the EV adoption curve will be so steep as to disrupt service, or require ubiquitous charging solutions.
I’m predicting that the technology at stake here at all levels: batteries — as well as the grid is improving at a rate sufficient to make the advent of mass-produced EVs a non-event.
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The Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
| October 24, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Considering all the writing I’ve done on the EV adoption curve over the past 18 months or so, I was interested in the immense amount of discussion on the subject at the “Business of Plugging In” conference in Detroit earlier this week. Here are a few comments, for what they’re worth.
I noted a great deal of speculation about “range anxiety,” i.e., dread of running out of charge away from home or a charging station. There is no doubt in my mind that, until opportunity charging can be made fast, convenient and ubiquitous — a process that will certainly require many decades — there will be some people who will cling fast to their gasoline-powered cars (at least until the demand for gas goes so low that it is no longer supplied). Having said that, the EV owners I’ve spoken with say that they got over this anxiety fairly quickly. You simply have to take a moment and plan ahead to ensure you’re not taking a chance of running out of charge. They say that it’s not altogether different than driving with gasoline; you need to be aware of what that needle reads and plan accordingly.
Another point that I found valuable was the reminder that the communications industry had estimated an approximate 2% penetration of cell phones. They had somehow missed the fact that once people have them, use them, and tell their friends about them, there is a very direct route to everyone’s wanting one.
The case here, I believe, will closely parallel cell phones. EV technology costs are falling, performance is improving, wars in the Middle East are raging, and CO2 levels are rising. I really don’t know what could happen to make this migration happen any faster.
Related posts:
The Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
| August 11, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
More from Alex C:
Consumer research indicates only 5% of American’s are true “greenies.” Remember that most Americans do NOT believe in the global warming scare and that it is a large political war….they don’t care…they will buy EVs if it adds value to their life. Only for a few percent of buyers will that value be related to the “environment.”
Personally, I’m not sure about this. Looking at my own piece (Brass Tack #1) carefully, I see that I equivocate on this myself – even in one short essay. Certainly in bad economic times, people are less likely to take actions for the common good if their personal interests suffer in the process. And you’re right that the oil companies have, incredible as it may seem, succeeded in casting public doubt on the concept of global warming. However, I have to think that my “mink coat” analogy will stand up to some degree. And wait until you see the compelling ads that come out for the Nissan Leaf, the Mitsubishi i-miEV, and the others when they are available in the US. I have to think they’ll make Hummer drivers look pretty shameful; if I were writing those ads, I’d have a field day on this subject.
