Posts Tagged by Chevy Volt
Predicting the Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
| August 4, 2011 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Here’s the presentation — including the audio track — that I made to the Electric Vehicle Summit at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles last week.
In essence, my point is that, though I’m bullish on the EV adoption curve, and I’m excited that for once, the good guys have a chance to win big, there are several open questions. In particular, there are so many variables here that have the potential to turn the world upside down, that it seems a bit foolish to me to think that predictions that go out 40 years have any real meaning.
Having said that, EVs are vitally necessary to the well being of all of us. Sustainability (generally) can only come from national security, which requires energy security, which in turn requires weaning ourselves off of oil. And there are other imperatives as well:
Health: We spend $250 billion a year dealing with the lung damage caused by the inhalation of the aromatics of fossil fuels.
Peak oil. We’re running out of oil.
Long-term environmental damage: Global climate change and ocean acidification.
Yet I grant that EV naysayers have some good points:
Drivers demand absolute freedom, and will not deal well with range anxiety.
Consumers are risk-averse; no one wants to invest $30,000 in the automotive equivalent of the Betamax.
Most (though not all) consumers refuse to pay extra for a benefit that accrues to everyone (eco-friendliness).
Even if this weren’t the case, there is widespread confusion and apathy about the true ecological benefits. I’m astonished by the effectiveness of the PR team that has convinced a significant number of Americans that global climate change does not represent an important problem. Morally, they’re certainly not very upright people, but I have to respect their effectiveness.
So, how to promote EVs in the US? I would consider appealing to a sense of patriotism, as there is nothing one can do that is better for the strength of our country as a whole than ceasing our reliance on oil. Simultaneously, this would:
Reduce the power, and thus the threat, of terrorism,
Remove a great deal of the motivation for war, and
Stop the outflow of US cash to the tune of $1 billion per day.
In any case, I hope you’ll enjoy the presentation.
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2GreenEnergy Video Report: Electric Transportation
| April 12, 2011 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Here, 2GreenEnergy Video Report host George Alger interviews me on the subject of electric transportation. We cover fuel-cell and battery EVs, the most likely consumer adoption curve, and the imperative on the part of the OEMs to begin to produce EVs.
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[The Vector] Chevy Volt – A Vehicle with Scarcity Value
| February 24, 2011 | Posted by Aedan-Kernan under Electric Vehicles |
For all the attention it is receiving, the Chevrolet Volt is not going to change much about the typical vehicle GM sells.
Chevrolet Volt Marketing Director Tony DiSalle said on July 2 that they plan to produce 10,000 Volts by the end of 2011, and an additional 30,000 Volts during 2012 at its Detroit-Hamtramck facility. In Europe, a sister car, the Ampera, is due to go into production roughly 12 months after the Volt.
During 2011 and 2012 GM will produce approximately 7 million vehicles that run on hydrocarbon fuels. Read More
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Electric Vehicles Offer a Bright Future
| December 3, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
I notice that 17 people have responded with comments thus far to my recent piece on Renewable Energy World in which I discussed plug-in hybrids and the Chevy Volt in particular. Although the purpose of my original article was to call for a simplification of our industry jargon, I can now see that there is a certain amount of inherent complexity to the whole concept of electric transportation and how clean it is.
Readers may wish to wade through each of these comments; it’s certainly an instructive exercise. But I would summarize the situation as follows: Read More
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Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Their Enemies
| November 28, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
I note a certain level of confusion surrounding plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. And I can certainly understand some level of bewilderment, as there are numerous variations on the plug-hybrid theme – as well as jargon that, in my opinion, serves to make the matter even worse — BEVs, ZEVs, PHEVs, REEVs, etc. But it’s clear that the enemies of electric transportation, whose motives remain unclear to me, are capitalizing on this moment of confusion to seize the day and turn people away from an important advancement in clean transportation.
In particular, I noted the recent fracas that resulted when GM announced the specifics behind the Chevy Volt’s drivetrain. Conservative columnist George Will loudly accused GM of deceit. “It’s just a hybrid!” he and his fellow cynics screamed last week, somehow overlooking the fact that many Volt drivers will never need to put a drop of gasoline in their cars.
I have to say I was stunned. Isn’t George Will an intellectual? Read More
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Comments to "GM and the Chevy Volt – Can They Be Trusted?"
| November 1, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Renewables - Business |
I received no fewer than 19 comments (and counting) to the post I put up on Renewable Energy World on “GM and Chevy Volt – Can They Be Trusted?” I knew this would be a hot topic.
I notice how many people use metaphors and other comparisons to make their point.
“The EV industry is in the same state as the auto industry was when man carved wheels out of rock,” one writes, in an effort to show how much further the relevant technologies are bound to improve. Not bad; I can see that.
Then you have a guy who refers to “Who Killed The Electric Car” as “propaganda” and compares it to the work of Joseph Goebbels in Nazi Germany. I don’t know, pal. Everyone’s entitled to his own opinion, and I appreciate your flair for the dramatic, but that’s really out there.
One reader worked hard to make the case against distributed power generation, and found an original way to point out the need for scalability that comes from centralization. ”Do you raise your own sheep for wool, and cows for slaughter?” he asks. That’s some creative reasoning, but spurious as an analogy.
In any case, I love the dialog. Let’s keep it flowing.
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Can We Trust General Motors?
| October 15, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
You’ll travel far to find someone with more provocative and important observations on the subject of transportation than Chelsea Sexton. Read More
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Electric Vehicles and the "David and Goliath” Metaphor
| August 25, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
We certainly see a great deal of the old “David and Goliath” metaphor in our conversations in this industry – especially in electric transportation. Though a number of EV start-ups have gone belly-up over the past few years, there are still many such Davids, feverishly ramping up to take on the Goliaths of Nissan, GM, and the other traditional automakers.
Bob Lutz, former co-chairman of GM, said on CBS’s 60 Minutes about a year ago that only experienced carmakers have the background to deliver electric vehicles. Horse hockey. That’s self-serving garbage, and he knows it. Obviously they have an advantage – especially since they’re approaching the problem with $85 billion of your (taxpayers’) money. But we’re about to see exactly what a whole slew of nimble companies with good ideas and cutting-edge technology can do, in competition against the stodgy behemoths.
I know I’m not alone in wishing that this weren’t the worst period in history for capital formation since the Great Depression. But even in their hamstrung condition, we’re about to enter some exciting times in the electric vehicle market. In addition to Tesla – a company that garners an astonishing amount of ink each week, we have Phoenix Motorcars, Coda, BYD, Fisker, and many others right behind them.
I’m wondering what effect this new, competitive environment – and a true paradigm shift in driving – will have on the GM IPO. What’s investors’ forecast for a company like GM, selling into an auto consumer base that doesn’t think or act like the baby boomer generation? Where will the modern car-buyer go who wants a high-quality automobile that doesn’t make him a slave to the oil companies? I guess we’ll see shortly – but I see another rock to the head coming for Goliath.
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What’s Wrong Inside Toyota?
| July 29, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
I spoke with a couple of the people promoting the 2012 release of the Prius plug-in hybrid yesterday at the 2010 Plug-In show. Gosh, this seems like a strange concept. Its all-electric range? 13 miles. The net effect for the typical customer? A bit better gas mileage. “This is what Prius customers want – a more efficient Prius,” one guy told me.
I was incredulous. Maybe they want that now, pal. But do you honestly think they’re going to want that two years from now, when they can have a LEAF, an I-MiEV, a Mini E, a Volt, or half a dozen other EVs of various sizes and types? You’re going to ask them to go through the exercise of plugging their car in, just to get slightly better gas mileage?
This is a truly terrible idea. I have to think something has gone terribly off the rails there. Unless they make a major change, I predict that Toyota’s decade 2005 – 2015 will be the biggest single meltdown in automotive history.
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Where Is the Electric Vehicle Industry Going? Judging by the 2010 Plug-In Show…
| July 29, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
The 2010 Plug-In show, featuring the latest in electric transportation, is now in the books. I spent yesterday at the event, meeting people, interviewing key industry players, and taking in all that the show offered. But while I enjoyed the experience, I was totally unprepared for what I saw.
In a word: small. The main impression that anyone would take away was how incredibly and unforeseeably tiny the event was compared with those of past years. I can’t be precise about this because, in truth, I never stopped to measure, for instance, the 2008 event, held in the same place (San Jose’s McEnery Convention Center). But yesterday, we had 38 exhibitors (down from many hundreds) in a floor space that could have accommodated a tennis match, and (I’m guessing) perhaps only a thousand or so attendees.
So what happened? I’m not 100% sure, but I have a guess.
Read More
