Posts Tagged by Deloitte Consulting
Excellence in Market Research
| May 29, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
In response to my complaint about Deloitte’s recent market research study on electric vehicles in which it was clear (to me at least) that they had surveyed irrelevant people as thus missed the mark with their conclusions, a gentleman named Gus wrote:
I believe that the comment “…the same critical mistake that most people do: survey the wrong people…” is at the root of the problem. Who are the right people then? Only the ones who think the way we do?
This is an astute comment. I’m not saying that these “irrelevant” people are not fine human beings. My mother, for instance, is a kind, intelligent and loving woman. But I can assure you, insofar as she’s extremely unlikely to by an electric vehicle – now or ever — any research process that included her opinion on the subject would be, to that degree, misguided.
The reason I regard your comment as astute is that it highlights one of the true art-forms that lies at the base of all good research: walking the tightrope of assumptions. When we assume too little, we wind up with soup – with generalized garbage that does not point the way to answers. Conversely, if we assume too much, we prove little more than we’ve already assumed, and we wind up with equally useless circular logic, e.g., More than 90% of all qualified homebuyers are those with both the current willingness and the ability to purchase a dwelling.
Market research looks easy — until you try it yourself. There are many ways to ruin a project — and until you make some of those errors and learn from your mistakes, it’s really not a piece of cake.
Adoption of Electric Vehicles – Deloitte's Washing Machine Scenario
| May 24, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
It looks like Deloitte Consulting has taken another stab at predicting the EV adoption curve – this time pointing out a comparison to the long consumer acceptance cycle of the common clothes washer. Deloitte cleverly notes that 80 years were required to reach 80% of households in America. From this they suggest that electric cars will follow a similar long, slow, shallow growth curve.
I suppose, depending on the comparison you choose, one could suggest essentially any adoption curve at all. As I recall, people had a tough time selling LP records and turntables within about a microsecond of the advent of the CD. And we sure snapped up those cell phones in one hell of a hurry. On the other hand, mankind had footwear for many thousands of years before the introduction of the left and right shoe in the Nineteeth Century (that’s true, btw).
But one wonders: why did Deloitte choose to make a comparison to a technology that – due to a combination of unusual factors almost a century ago – was slow to take root? Who’s being served by this? Can anyone possibly think that this is a fairminded and sensible report?
