Posts Tagged by electric vehicle
Honda Announces Plug-in Hybrid and EV Commuter for 2012
| November 5, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Am I the only one who was a bit stunned at Honda’s announcement today? CEO Takanobu Ito outlined the company’s plans to introduce both a mid-size plug-in hybrid and an electric commuter vehicle in the U.S. and Japan by the end of 2012. He told Reuters, “It’s starting to look like there will be a market for electric vehicles. We can’t keep shooting down their potential, and we can’t say there’s no business case for it.”
So what so weird about this?
In the first place, Honda’s longstanding commitment to its current alternate fuel vehicle, the hydrogen fuel cell F6 Clarity, which, of course, is an electric vehicle; batteries and fuel cells are simply two different ways of providing portable electrical energy. Perhaps Ito simply misspoke, but that strikes me as a mistake that the CEO of Honda would be most unlikely to make. Read More
GE’s Electric Vehicle Charging Station
| July 20, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
There’s a lot to like about GE’s design (announced just the other day) for their electric vehicle charging station. It looks cools, offers “Level 2″ (240 Volt) charging, and provides its customers with “future-proofing,” easily swapping in new technology when it becomes available.
But the most important feature GE’s product is that it exists at all. As I reported in my piece Tough Realities for Renewable Energy Businesses, I urge people to look at the actions of Fortune 25 companies as indications of the underlying truth in the world – and this is a fabulous example. A company with revenues of $157 billion is extremely unlikely to make a commitment to a product space whose revenues will come from a small minority of tree-huggers. This announcement is further evidence that the public and private sectors and moving very quickly – in lock-step with one another – to move electric transportation ahead.
The Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve in New York City
| May 30, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
In response to my piece about the EV adoption curve in New York City, Josh Levin writes:
Eighty percent of the adults who live in Manhattan do not own motor vehicles, and rely on buses, subway, taxis to get around — plus their own two feet … Manhattan is a rather atypical place. My guess is that only 1-2% of the US population lives in Manhattan or similar center-city areas.
Thanks for writing, Josh. You’re certainly right that Manhattan is atypical re: the issues facing car drivers. Every few years, I’ve been unlucky enough to find myself driving a car in The City that I love — but the driving climate that I royally hate. And yes, with the traffic, the parking prices, the super-aggressive pedestrians and bicyclists, the taxi drivers from hell, ultra-complex signs and rules, rudeness, double and triple parking — they have FAR bigger driving challenges than transitioning from ICEs to EVs.
To me, the EV slam-dunks of the world are places like Bermuda (thus my team’s concentration on bringing EVs there): low speeds, short drives, narrow roads, great incentives, ridiculously high gas prices, and an eco-sensitive and wealthy population. As I joke with my friends, if I fail with EVs there, I’m jumping off a bridge.
Adoption of Electric Vehicles – Deloitte's Washing Machine Scenario
| May 24, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
It looks like Deloitte Consulting has taken another stab at predicting the EV adoption curve – this time pointing out a comparison to the long consumer acceptance cycle of the common clothes washer. Deloitte cleverly notes that 80 years were required to reach 80% of households in America. From this they suggest that electric cars will follow a similar long, slow, shallow growth curve.
I suppose, depending on the comparison you choose, one could suggest essentially any adoption curve at all. As I recall, people had a tough time selling LP records and turntables within about a microsecond of the advent of the CD. And we sure snapped up those cell phones in one hell of a hurry. On the other hand, mankind had footwear for many thousands of years before the introduction of the left and right shoe in the Nineteeth Century (that’s true, btw).
But one wonders: why did Deloitte choose to make a comparison to a technology that – due to a combination of unusual factors almost a century ago – was slow to take root? Who’s being served by this? Can anyone possibly think that this is a fairminded and sensible report?
Electric Vehicle Start-ups
| May 24, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Abhishek writes in:
“… electric vehicle startups require large amounts of capital to go into production. The continuous need for large capital infusions makes partnerships with established companies with large balance sheets essential. I think some of these ventures would eventually be absorbed by the Hondas and Toyotas of the world.”
Good points, Abhishek — thanks for writing in. And yes, you’re right that a great deal of consolidation is in the cards. But I guess I always thought there was a place for the start-up EV manufacturer — but so far there has been essentially nothing but carnage.
I’m wondering what’s behind all this failure. I’m reminded of the numerous “Plug In” conferences I’ve attended, expecting a feeling of exuberance in the air — but instead sensing a kind of dread. And that dread is simply what you’re talking about: the fear that the big guys will do this at their leisure — and then crush the start-ups like so many grapes.
Having said this, we need to acknowledge that starting a car business from scratch is a lofty endeavor. I’m amazed to see that CODA just raised $58 million in series-C money. Those are some bold investors, I can tell you that.
If I were giving advice, I’d suggest aiming for a niche. Compete in a space that is well-defined – probably one that is too small to receive the attention of the large OEMs.
Quality Issues with Chinese Electric Vehicles
| May 6, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
I just had an interesting experience that I thought I’d share. I’ve mentioned that I’m a partner in a company that imports and sells electric vehicles into island nations – starting with Bermuda. And what’s not to like about that? You’ll work hard to find a better set of factors militating toward EVs anywhere in the world: expensive gas, huge tax incentives, low speed limits, short drives, wealthy people, etc.
But here’s an interesting wrinkle: What to sell? Sure, the big OEMs are near to their proposed launch dates for cars like the Nissan LEAF and the Chevy Volt – and dozens of others are right behind them. But here’s an opportunity to sell something right now – if we can find the right car. Of course, there are several Chinese EVs rolling off the assembly lines, so why not consider them? In a word: quality.
I just got off the phone with a friend who has a relationship with Chinese manufacturer that’s been cranking these out for years. In fact, we bought one a year ago for a test in the real-world conditions in Bermuda. After about 14 months in that salty environment, it has rust holes the size of baseballs.
“Oh, I think what we have now is far better,” he told me. “You think?” I asked. “Sure, he replied. Why don’t you inspect the new model for yourselves.” Dude: we’re not metallurgists; we’re car dealers.
“Well, you can have some tests done,” he offered. But since when did it become the responsibility of the dealer to test the quality of the cars he sells? Isn’t that what manufacturers do? I know there are issues with China generally, but give me a break. Can he seriously expect us to distribute a product whose quality issues are completely unknown? How many Honda dealers would there be if Honda shifted the responsibility of QC to its dealers? Our job is to sell high-quality, high-value cars. His job is to make damn sure that the cars he’s selling us meets those criteria — regardless of what it takes to do that.
I’m unwilling to paint an entire nation and all of its product with the same brush, but we really do have a quality issue here. Any suggestions?
The EPA Asks: How Much Pollution Do Electric Vehicles Create?
| April 6, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
In his blog, my friend Paul Scott has written a marvelous post on calculating the pollution caused by charging electric vehicles with energy from fossil-fuels. He makes several astute comments and suggestions regarding how the EPA should, in fact, make this determination fairly.
He asks such questions as:
How do you compute the amount of pollution generated from coal and natural gas? Do you take the national average for a kilowatt hour of energy? I’ve read it’s just over one pound of CO2 per kWh. Or do you allow for regional variation? California is among the best in terms of per capita efficiency and a low CO2 grid, and we’ll be the first state to mass adopt EVs. Oregon and Washington have an even cleaner grid and will match CA in per capita EV ownership. Seems only fair to allow for our cleaner grid in the calculations.
In my estimation, a far bigger factor here is that the vast majority of the energy used to charge EVs comes off-peak, where it would largely be wasted (dumped back to ground) anyway. Therefore, even EVs powered by the dirtiest of coal-fired power plants represent very little additional pollution. We could put an estimated 90 million EV on the road this afternoon without the need for a single additional power plant — coal, nuclear, or whatever. Thus this issue, I believe, is largely moot.
But don’t expect the EPA to grasp this point too quickly. These are the same people who are still trying to determine the MPG ratings for a plug-hybrid like the Chevy Volt. Apparently, the fact that this is number that has no possible definition (it could be 50, 500, 5,000 or 50,000 depending on how the car is driven) does not deter them from spending many man-years studying and debating the issue. It makes just as much sense to argue about the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.
In any case, I applaud Paul for his incisive and fair-minded article, and I encourage readers to check it out here.
Thoughts on the EV Adoption Curve
| March 16, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Every so often, I like to write a short article that gets us thinking about the rate at which electric vehicles will be assilimated into our culture and brought onto our roads, replacing internal combustion engines. Here are a few ideas to consider.
1) What does Big Auto think (or, at least, claim that they think) about EV production rates? Considering there are 230 million cars on the road in the US alone, the needle will not be moving in the short-term:
Nissan: Has pre-orders for 56,000 LEAF all-electric cars.
GM: Last year, had 50,000 expressions of interest in the Chevy Volt, though presumably that figure is somewhat larger now.
Mitsubishi: Bumped up its 2011 production schedule of the i-MiEV from 8,500 units to 9,000.
Better Place: Placed an order with Renault for 100,000 electric vehicles based on the Fluence ZE for its deal with Israel.
2) But is there any reason to believe anything coming out of Detroit?
Today, the population of Detroit is about half of what it was in 1950. The city has 33,500 empty homes and 91,000 vacant lots. A recent AP article asserts that vacant property totals 40 square miles. But Big Auto is not at all apologetic for the meltdown, and points out they couldn’t have foreseen the dynamics of oil prices that created sharp inflection points in the demand for fuel-efficient vehicles in favor of the Hummer and other gas-guzzlers. If this is false, they’re disingenuous; if it’s true, they’re incredibly obtuse. Either way, it’s hard to trust what they’re saying.
One thing for sure: there is nothing good in EVs for the big OEMs. They are happy to drag this transition out for decades, selling gas- and diesel-based cars and trucks as long as possible.
3) The Department of Energy apparently is not bullish on pure (battery) EVs.
Check out this report on the future of the automobile. Although the author sees lots of hybrids in our future, he really doesn’t see any pure EVs. Remarkable. I have to think this is simply a mistake.
4) Industry analysts are hedging their bets.
As reported in EV World, Accenture recently performed a survey that showed that six out of 10 consumers are more likely to buy a hybrid or electric vehicle “only when it is superior to gasoline-only models in every way.”
I understand that merely “being green” isn’t good enough for the vast majority of car buyers. But this report strikes me as the usual MBA malarky — a consultant who reads your watch and then tells you what time it is. What about the other 40%? Isn’t that a substantial market? And what exactly does “superior in every way” mean, exactly? How will the typical consumer react to a value proposition that includes dramatically lower fuel cost and huge reductions of other pieces of his total cost of ownership?
My belief: Give me a freeway-speed battery EV with comparable fit and finish to a garden-variety 5-passenger sedan, a 75-mile range, and price tag under $25,000 after rebate, and you won’t be able to manufacture enough of them.
Helping Electric Vehicle Companies Expand
| March 3, 2010 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
In addition to my work at 2GreenEnergy, I’m a partner in two companies related to electric vehicles. One is the largest website on Earth dedicated to EVs — an 11-year-old website with 225,000 unique vistors a month — EVWorld.com. I’ve very proud of the work that Bill Moore, my fine friend, has done through the years in forwarding the cause of clean transportation.
Another partnership of which I’m happy to be a part is its subsidiary, EV World Associates. I’m trying to create a video to tell our story there, the first vesrion of which you can see below. You’ll see at a glance that the images are too low-res and that it needs help in a million different directions. But I think that the basic message is clear: we’re here to serve.
Just Got Fooled Again
| November 14, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
This week’s news in electric transportation calls to mind the auto companies’ deceit a decade ago with California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle mandate. According to the Automotive News, Chrysler has disbanded the engineering team that was working to bring three electric models to market as a rush job. This program, of course, was the basis on which they got every man, woman and child in the United States to bail them out with $12.5 billion in taxpayer money. And I suppose we have to add in the $70 million in grants that Chrysler took from the U.S. DoE to develop a test fleet of 220 hybrid pickup trucks and minivans — vehicles that are now scrapped as well.
I was speaking with my friend Bill Moore (of EV World fame) just now about how cheesed off we should all be by this. I mentioned that $12.5 billion is quite a heist. “Isn’t that one of the biggest burglaries in history?” I asked. “Yes,” Bill said. “But they’re too big to arrest.”
Jay Leno, move over.
