Posts Tagged by electric vehicle
Electric Vehicles – Batteries and Fuel Cells
| November 11, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Honda’s Steve Ellis is one of the world’s foremost authorities on the subject of alternative fuel vehicles and their commercial trajectory. He happened to be a fellow speaker at last month’s AltCarExpo in Santa Monica, and I’m proud to count him among my friends. We’ve have had several meetings over the past year or so, from which I’ve learned how much more there is to the subject of fuel cells than most people realize. In an interview last night, Steve reviewed the subject with me from top to bottom, forming the basis of an important chapter in my book on renewables.
While they were fresh in my mind, I thought I’d note a few of the most interesting highlights from Steve’s presentation:
- Of those who know anything at all about fuel cells, most have opinions that are based on sources that have made essentially no effort to treat the subject fairly.
- It is true that the process by which hydrogen (the “fuel”) is electrolyzed from water and then, in the car, recombined with oxygen to form water is less efficient that the process of storing electrical energy in a battery and converting it to kinetic energy in an electric motor. However, this is largely missing the point; there are far more important factors that affect fuel cells’ utility in transportation that are normally overlooked.
- Both types of electric vehicles (fuel cell and battery) offer the potential for completely clean transportation; the issue is how the energy is generated in the first place.
- Over the past few years, the efficiency of fuel cells has improved faster than the relevant statistics (energy density and cost) of batteries.
- Technologies by which drivers can refuel their cars for longer trips will bedevil the battery electric vehicle market for the foreseeable future. Better Place is not a good fit for the US, and ubiquitous quick-charging is many decades away, if it ever comes at all. So if you want clean vehicles that can be refueled in a matter of a few minutes (versus many hours), hydrogen is your only answer.
I guess the most memorable moment of the interview was the concept of personal emotion and politics. Steve is at a loss to understand why people with a sincere devotion to environmental stewardship would manipulate the facts to denegrate a technology that is strategic to moving us in the right direction. “This is truly strange behavior. Fuel cell advocates don’t try to derail the battery industry. It’s obvious that both have strengths and weaknesses, and form complementary paths in our journey to clean transportation.”
I guess we’d all like to think that meeting the challenges of reducing our carbon footprint are purely technological, rather than political. Or — if the challenges in fact do have political components that it’s “the good guys against the bad guys” — and that there is a kind of “brotherly love” among the fans of renewable energy and electric transportation. But my recent interviews have suggested that this is not the case. All I can say is what I remind my kids of constantly: This is not going to be easy. Let’s not fight among ourselves and make it impossible.
Electric Vehicles and the Power Utilities
| October 25, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
The 2009 “Business of Plugging In” conference also featured a great deal of discussion on the readiness of the utilities to support EVs. Although some people were horribly cautionary and indicated that this was a major impediment, a few key speakers cleared the matter up nicely:
EV’s are generally charged at off-peak periods when the power is usually discarded anyway. (Approximately half the electrical energy generated each day is wasted because it is not used and cannot be stored cost-effectively.) The opportunity to sell power that is otherwise thrown away provides additional revenue for the utilities at very little cost, which is, of course, a help rather than a hindrance.
Most people initially will charge at 110 volts and 15 amps. This is the power of a hair dryer, and will put very little strain on the grid. Only over time will a sizeable percentage of people upgrade to more robust chargers that will shorten the time necessary to charge their cars. But one astute person asked, “If you start charging your car at 11 PM, how important is it to you that’s it’s fully charged by 1 AM?” This slow migration to fast charging will provide ample time for the utilities to prepare.
Most of the audience came away with the (fortunately correct) idea that there is a natural fit between the development of the EV, the grid, and the increasing adoption/demand rate of EVs that we see from the consumer. None can proceed without the other two. Yet there seems to be a unforced harmony between the growth of each one.
And here’s another piece of good news from the conference. One elderly corporate speaker said to a standing-room-only break-out session of about 400 people, “We had EV conferences like this one a few years ago, and we were lucky to have 10 people in the room. Take a second and look around.”
The Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
| October 24, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Considering all the writing I’ve done on the EV adoption curve over the past 18 months or so, I was interested in the immense amount of discussion on the subject at the “Business of Plugging In” conference in Detroit earlier this week. Here are a few comments, for what they’re worth.
I noted a great deal of speculation about “range anxiety,” i.e., dread of running out of charge away from home or a charging station. There is no doubt in my mind that, until opportunity charging can be made fast, convenient and ubiquitous — a process that will certainly require many decades — there will be some people who will cling fast to their gasoline-powered cars (at least until the demand for gas goes so low that it is no longer supplied). Having said that, the EV owners I’ve spoken with say that they got over this anxiety fairly quickly. You simply have to take a moment and plan ahead to ensure you’re not taking a chance of running out of charge. They say that it’s not altogether different than driving with gasoline; you need to be aware of what that needle reads and plan accordingly.
Another point that I found valuable was the reminder that the communications industry had estimated an approximate 2% penetration of cell phones. They had somehow missed the fact that once people have them, use them, and tell their friends about them, there is a very direct route to everyone’s wanting one.
The case here, I believe, will closely parallel cell phones. EV technology costs are falling, performance is improving, wars in the Middle East are raging, and CO2 levels are rising. I really don’t know what could happen to make this migration happen any faster.
Electric Vehicles – The Business of Plugging In
| October 21, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Renewables - Business |
As the name suggests, “The Business of Plugging In” conference in Detroit this week was about business — the profit motive — and there is nothing wrong with that. Yet, though there is widespread agreement that the world should migrate to electric vehicles, there is considerable disagreement as to exactly how this should happen and who should profit as a result. There are a great number of directly competitive strategies in terms of products, business models, and charging infrastructures…..and guess what happens when you put their representatives on a stage in the hopes of calmly and dispassionately discussing these issues? Can you say “rabid dogs?”
I’m kidding; it’s all been fairly professional here, but generally, this is a forum for the presentation of ideas that serve the speaker’s ultimate profit-making agenda, so one hears some pretty wild, and, in my way of thinking, unsubstantiated ideas.
George Patacki, Governor of New York from 1995 – 2006, moderated the opening panel, and made what I thought was the single most important point of the day on Tuesday: we live in a country that has wind energy in the plains, solar energy in the southwest, and geothermal in the mountains — but no infrastructure — physical or regulative — to enable our nation to provide all this wonderful capacity to consumers. He’s supporting legislature that will bypass the boundaries of the literally 2000 local and regional utilities and upgrade the grid at a national level and make possible the sharing of renewable energy.
This Week in Detroit: "Business of Plugging In"
| October 20, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
My partner at EV World and good friend Bill Moore and I convene in Detroit this week for the “Business of Plugging In” show, which runs through Wednesday. Upon my return, I’ll deliver a full report on who’s doing what. For now, I can tell you that the show has been sold out for quite a while, and that the interest in this subject is at an all-time high.
Driven by technology breakthroughs in batteries and ultracapacitors, aggressive policy-making at the federal and state levels, and, of course, the formation for capital enabling thousands of businesses to enter the supply chain at all levels, there is no doubt that electric transportation is coming in a big way, and that it will not be derailed this time.
It won’t be long until consumers all over the world join the early adopters in saying, “No plug? No deal.”
Electric Vehicles and the AltCarExpo
| September 21, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
I’m honored to be a panelist at the AltCarExpo in Santa Monica, CA, October 2nd and 3rd.
This is a truly special event for several reasons, one of which is obvious: The world is running at top speed in the direction of alternative-fuelled transportation. The buzz in the electric vehicle world is so loud and so constant that it’s almost deafening. The migration to clean transportation is the most important trend in the international business world right now, and this is an opportunity to learn more, and to jump in with both feet.
The other is the uniqueness of Santa Monica itself – one of the most progressive municipalities on earth in terms of environmental responsibility. Attendees will have the opportunity to meet the city’s fleet superintendent Rick Sikes, whose passion for sustainability has driven him to create a vehicle array that is 87% alternatively fuelled.
It’s hard to find words to express how impressed I am with the dedication of Christine Dzilvelis and her incredible staff who have worked tirelessly to put this all together.
I hope that readers within a reasonable distance will attend. My group — the ELECTRIC VEHICLE INFRASTRUCTURE PANEL convenes at 3:30 Friday; please come and throw softballs at me — just kidding — feel free to pepper me with tough questions.
Electric Vehicles and Lithium Ion Battery Chemistry
| September 17, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Obviously, the gating factor to the electric transportation industry is battery technology. Yet costs are falling and energy density is increasing, and I think we all have the sense that the battery packs that we see in the EVs of today will look pretty ridiculous in a few years due to steady improvements in technology.
Making this whole area even more interesting are the battery management systems (BMS) that are required to control the charging and discharging of today’s cutting edge lithium ion batteries. The various lithium chemistries, e.g., lithium iron phosphate, offer a huge range of advantages over lead acid (small in size and weight, flat discharge curve, etc.) but are quite sensitive and often simply fail to perform in real-world applications. A state-of-the-art BMS, like the one offered by our client Lithium Balance, is really the only way to guarantee any degree of reliability from a lithium ion battery pack.
I spoke with Lorne Hatchard of Los Angeles-based Li-ion battery supplier POWERFORCE just now, who explained that his company is attempting to develop its own BMS, and that its products are built at a variety of facilities in Asia, imported, and then triple-checked to ensure that they perform to their specifications.
Again, energy density (the amount of energy that can be stored per unit of volume or mass) is a central issue. And from what I’m reading, it looks like breakthroughs in lithium battery chemistry will continue for some period of time, since:
Lithium, the lightest of the metals, also has the highest standard potential of all the metals, at over 3 V — some of the lithium cell designs have a voltage of nearly 4 V.
Where, as a metal, lithium reacts violently with water, as well as with nitrogen in air, this is not the case with many lithium compounds – thus the name lithium ion.
Energy density and current-carrying capacity are functions of surface area, and, because lithium ions are no small, there are advanced ways of increasing surface area, versus simple flat plates. In particular, the battery terminals can be made from graphite (a layered crystal) into which certain lithium compounds are “intercalated.” While I had POWERFORCE on the phone, I asked one of its engineers to explain this further. He told me that this is based on the concept that small ions like lithium can fit in the spaces in a graphite crystal. Not only that, but these metallic atoms can go farther and force the graphitic planes apart to fit two, three, or more layers of metallic atoms between the carbon sheets. This is a great way this is to store lithium in a battery—the graphite is conductive, dilutes the lithium for safety, is reasonably cheap, and does not allow unwanted crystal structures to form.
Given the number of incredibly bright people who are working on this all over the world (many of them supported by enormous funding), it’s really no surprise we’re seeing a great deal of progress in this arena.
The Greening of Bermuda
| September 4, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Renewables - Politics |
Over the next few days, I’ll be posting a few articles on my company’s work with the island nation of Bermuda. From the standpoint of the raw facts, Bermuda is probably the best candidate on the planet to “go green” in a big way. As a people, they’re wealthy and enlightened. As a tourist destination, they’re anxious to make a statement. As a physical locale, they suffer from the pollution of their power plant’s historic reliance upon diesel. And as a candidate for electric transportation, can anything be more auspicious than expensive gas, high tariffs on internal combustion engine cars, short driving distances and low speed limits?
At this point, I would like to introduce you to the Bermuda Electric Light, Power & Traction Company or BELCO – the power utility that is wrestling with a great number of alternatives to fossil fuels: solar, wind, tidal, etc. I invite you to read the reports of the vendors that have been asked to create proposals for five different green technologies. As you read these documents, perhaps you’ll be thinking along the same lines that I am: How many do they really need? Isn’t one better (probably FAR better) than the other four?
I’m always amused by the pundits who say that we in the US need to blend many different alternative fuels. Outside of politics, exactly why? Given the configuration of our land mass vis-à-vis the sun’s path, our predominant wind patterns, the location and depth of our subterranean pockets of heat, the flow of our rivers, and the nature of our ocean currents, isn’t there one best solution? I think so.
Electric Vehicles for Commuters
| September 2, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
I just had the pleasure of speaking with Rick Woodbury, CEO of Commuter Cars. Rick and his highly pedigreed team of auto designers and strategists have assembled a business plan surrounding the Tango, the small and unique commuter car. There are numerous write-ups floating around on the subject – most notably those on EV World — that I won’t try to paraphrase. In my mind, the facts are simple, and besides, the picture here tells the story quite well:
A super-quick, fun-to-drive NHSTA-approved EV needs to be designed from the ground up, at the considerable expense that one would associate with such a project. The car will meet the needs of commuters who will be asked to pay a premium over an ICE-equivalent for a narrow, short, two-person car that they can maneuver through stop-and-go traffic and park easily (parallel or even perpendicular to the curb).
Other quick details:
a) The Tango is the only enclosed and protected vehicle in the world at this time that can lanesplit, i.e., drive between lanes of stopped or slow-moving traffic, legal in California and most of the world for motorcycles, some of which are 5-inches wider than a Tango.
b) Tandem 2-seater, only 39-inches wide and 8-foot 5-inches long; the same width as a police Harley, and 5-inches narrower than a Honda Gold Wing
c) Most of its weight (batteries) is under the floor, providing a static rollover threshold equivalent to a Porsche 911.
d) With over 1,000 ft lbs of torque, and a zero to 60 acceleration in under 4 seconds, it can out-accelerate most supercars.
Obviously, the demand for such a vehicle has yet to be established. In fact, one could argue, it would be impossible to ascertain such demand with any accuracy, since the car represents disruptive technology; it’s SO different than anything available today that it’s hard to imagine the value of a focus group or quantitative market research effort in pointing to a reliable assessment of actual consumer acceptance.
I think it’s obvious that commuters outside of places like New York City, Washington DC, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Paris, London – etc. will have little appetite for the car, considering that its price – even with a good economy of scale in production, will be unlikely to be under $25,000. I’ll grant that it’s a blast to drive, but the real appeal is the convenience of a far faster commute, and much easier parking once that commute is over. This is a proposition that seems quite real to me for those in extremely congested areas. But the company is left with the challenge of selling this idea to investors with some fairly deep pockets and willingness to take significant risks.
I enjoyed Rick’s bright mind, his optimism, and the fact that he wasn’t in the least put off my “devil’s advocate” questioning. “Oh don’t worry about that,” he quips; “I’ve heard far worse.” Rick points out that, if a significant number of Tangos were deployed, the entire volume of traffic would decrease for everyone. Of course, I noted, this in and of itself skirts the issue that people do not make purchases based on the welfare of the society. Fortunately, as Rick responded, the value proposition for the consumer himself is considerable: less time in his car commuting to and from work; that society wins too is a lucky side-benefit.
Some current customers who have well over $100,000 apiece for hand-assembled kits include George Clooney, and the Google Founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Of course, that there are a few celebrity environmentalists who can afford to do anything they like does little to convince anyone of the ultimate market demand. Yet I have to agree that there are millions of people who deeply resent their commute, are looking for creative new options — and wouldn’t mind doing the right thing in the process if it proves to be possible. The Tango certainly fits the bill.
Electric Vehicles and Opportunity Charging
| September 1, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Tina Juarez writes:
I get the impression that folks don’t really understand the cost of electricity to charge an EV… When the local Costco decided after years of letting my charge my EV while shopping that I was stealing too electricity from them, I called the local power company got their commercial rate and figured out my 3 hour shopping spree cost them about $.45.
Actually, what seems to be happening here to me is the opposite: mall owners are establishing free charging stations to encourage their customers to stay longer (and thus spend more).
But you bring up a critically important point concerning the facilitation of the migration to electric transportation. I.e., an important factor is the use of information technology (based on the Internet) to square up for the purchase of electrical power when one is away from home.
You’ll be happy to know that dozens of people and organizations are working hard to bring this about. You will probably not be as happy to learn that by my wits, there is very little cooperation and sharing of knowledge between them. In fact, many of them seem to be deliberately working against one another, each seeking to establish a different “standard”, each fighting for leadership and ultimate market dominance. This, of course, would be no different than cell phone technology, computer hardware (Mac vs. PC), software (Microsoft vs. Linux/Unix) or any of dozens of different ways that corporate giants profit at the expense of the consumer.
I’ll ask Brian Wynne to comment on this more directly, as he’s in a unique position to look into this process and to comment on what I wrote here.
