My thanks to everyone who has participated in the recent 2GreenEnergy survey.  I note that Dr. David Doty, one of the greatest intellects I’ve ever run across, boldly predicted the following for the coming five years:

Oil, coal, and gas will steadily become more expensive at a mean rate of ~20%/year. EVs will have negligible impact on oil usage – for decades.

Global economic growth will still continue at a rate of ~2%/yr, and inflation in the U.S. will remain low.

The gap between the rich and the poor will continue to widen. It will take 10-12 more years of this before something close to revolution (major rioting) comes to the U.S. We will not see another period of sustained strong growth in the U.S. until several years after that happens.

We will not see serious and effective commitment to reduced CO2 emissions until after we’ve seen several years of strong economic growth.

Much of what you’ve written here is so counter to most people’s thinking — not to say that this means it’s wrong.  20% CAGR? That’s doubling every 3.5 years. By “mean rate,” I presume you suggest an average across the three fuels, as well as their price points across the next five years. 

Personally, I don’t see anything right now that would tend to make natural gas or coal climb in price.  The anti-fracking sentiment here doesn’t seem to be gaining too much momentum, and you can still walk through Wyoming and trip over lumps of coal.  I agree about oil, though I believe the oil companies will manipulate the price, and the American sheep-consumer, as long as that’s what’s required to keep us from looking elsewhere for transportation.

I’m even more interested in what you wrote about social chaos. As I’m sure you know, you’re not alone in predicting this.   But you must be aware of our fastest growing industry: criminal justice.  While even college graduates are having the devil’s own time finding work, one segment’s booming – it’s spending a mint in advertising, and creating a whole new subject in which college students can major, like you and I majored in physics, English, history, or whatever.  That’s law enforcement.   Enjoy a rewarding career putting those lawless protesters where they belong: behind bars! 

Sorry to joke about such a lethally serious subject, but I’m not too bullish on the efficacy of civil disobedience here in the US. 

But I do agree with what you write at the end: as long as Americans feel a pinch in their wallets, there will be precious little interest in CO2 emissions.  It’s far too easy for the demagogues to convince voters that environmental responsibility means a sluggish economy and that the adoption of an energy policy that embraces renewables will result in job loss.

Again, my thanks to Dr. Doty and to all the others who have responded so far.  ”Tell your friends,” as they say.

Tomorrow my daughter and I will spend the afternoon on a project for her science class at school: building a model house whose electrical power is delivered with solar photovoltaics.  I have a small solar panel that (I believe) will put out about 5 Watts in the full sun, and a couple of flashlight batteries of different types.  I think I’m going to have to experiment with series vs. parallel circuits, different bulbs, etc., before I get this right.  Should be fun.

I’d like to ask a favor, if I may. We have a quick survey up on the 2GreenEnergy website – one that, interestingly enough,  calls for you to predict the future. Given our current energy policies and the rate at which they’re changing, what do you think the world will be like five years from now? What events do you believe are likely to occur between now and the year 2017? Which do you think are improbable?

As usual, we’ll tabulate the results and offer you a free copy of the report that comes as a result.

And as always, we appreciate your help.

Here’s the link:

http://2greenenergy.com/survey-what-will-happen-in-the-next-five-years/

I think that anybody contemplating a career in clean energy has always to take a look at the engineering and scientific aspects of the field to find a very demanding and yet rewarding career, why because we live in a technical field….There will always be better ways to extract energy from the sun, the wind, earth and the water…. Lawyers, accountants as well as marketers cannot lead the way; they lack the tools and the vision to understand and unleash the forces of nature in our benefit. Cheers, Mate.

Rogelio, thanks very much for this  great insight. It reminds me of my conversations with my fine friend, the extremely senior physicist Wally Rippel, who, when asked to speak in front of a crowd, has been known to offer this challenge:

Raise your hand if you can name a movie actress. Good!

How about an athelete? Excellent.

A famous criminal? Terrific.

A singer in a band? Fabulous.

What about a multi-billionaire? Nice going.

Now, raise your hand if you can name a scientist. Not Albert Einstein, or someone else who’s been dead even longer, but any prominent living scientist.

Each time he does this, the audience looks around at one another sheepishly. Not a single hand goes up.

His point, obviously, is that our society reveres rich people, hot starlets, people who can dunk a basketball, and a few others.  But we really don’t care a whit for the people who, as you put it, are looking for better ways to “extract energy from the sun, the wind, earth and the water.”

Rogelio, I’m sure you would agree that we need to find a way to change this regrettable and self-destructive aspect of our civilization.  Each day we show our approval of the Wall Street masters of the universe, the seven-footers with the obscene tattoos, and the coke-snorting actors.  But our  scientists have simply fallen out of favor.  In the words of Bob Dylan, a hard rain’s a gonna fall.  We’re in the process of getting the society we so richly deserve.

On a far lighter note, you bring up a wonderful point.  I’m looking for a Renaissance here, as I’m sure you are too.  Thanks for writing.  Cheers back to you, Mate!

I’ll be interested in your feedback.

Swap your old appliances for newer ones that have an Energy Star rating. Energy Star appliances are guaranteed to use less energy than those made previously. For refrigerators and freezers, the rating promises 20% less energy used, for dishwashers 40% less energy used, and for washing machines at least 50% less energy used!

Those looking to reduce their energy consumption would be wise to make their own ice. Though automatic ice makers may seem convenient, they often break a lot and waste a lot of energy. Additionally, seals that leak are another common complaint with these devices, and this can lead to a general rise in temperature within the freezer. If you make your own ice, you won’t have these problems.

Thawing frozen foods in your refrigerator is a good way to conserve energy. This is a safe way for thawing food that reduces energy consumption of the refrigerator.

A good benchmark to use when determining how much power a new solar system is likely to generate is the number of hours of sunlight in the winter. This will prevent any unpleasant surprises during the winter months, while leaving you safely ahead of your needs during the summer. Be sure to get a net-usage plan with the energy company so that you can get money from them when you put the surplus energy onto their grid.

Use a solar water heat system to lower water and heating costs. Both natural gas and electricity are inefficient heating methods, while solar water heaters use the sun to constantly heat your water. Even though these upgrades can involve considerable expense, some of them might qualify as green energy tax savings.

Use the light in your oven to conserve energy. Using your oven light instead of opening up your oven to check on your food can save a great deal of energy, as a lot of heat escapes every time you open your oven.

Be sure to learn more about passive and active solar power. Active power is power that is stored to be used for a later time, while passive power doesn’t require power storage cells. Active solar power requires solar panels, cells, and mechanical systems. Passive solar power is simply making use of the sun to keep thermal energy in your walls so you can heat your home.

Try cutting energy usage in your business, as well as your home. Solar arrays can be a great addition to your business plan, while also offering a boost to your marketing strategy by entering the green business arena. Many people choose to support businesses that use green technology to help our environment. Over an extended period of time, the cost of obtaining the solar panels you’ve invested in will pay for itself.

It does not have to be all that complicated to go green. As you have learned from this article there are a lot of ways you can green up your life for the better. Remember to use what you have read here today. It won’t be nearly as hard as you thought, and it will produce some very positive effects.

Information Gathered From Blog Earth 4 Energy

Traditional methods of generating energy are giving way to new environmentally-friendly ideas. Instead of stripping the land for coal mining and clearing miles of land for oil fields or natural gas pipelines, the concept of renewable energy is evolving. The term “renewable energy” is an often-used buzzword, but how does using green energy affect animals in their native habitat?

Saying “No” to Fossil Fuels

Global warming is the biggest threat facing the planet today but sustainable energy is a cleaner and safer way to generate needed power. Everyone has seen the sad images of birds living near the ocean with their feathers matted with slick black oil after an oil spill, or thousands of dead fish washed up on the shore because of water pollution. The use of renewable energy from the sun and wind gives animals a second chance at life.

The use of fossil fuels directly affects the ecosystem and all animals worldwide, from birds, frogs and fish to bats, bears and alligators. Over a one-year period the typical fossil-fueled coal plant generates:

• 193,000 tons of sludge and 125,000 tons of ash from its smokestack scrubber
• 10,200 tons of nitrogen oxide
• 10,000 tons of sulfur dioxide
• 720 tons of carbon monoxide
• 500 tons of small particles
• 220 tons of hydrocarbons
• 225 pounds of arsenic
• 170 pounds of mercury
• 114 pounds of lead
• 4 pounds of cadmium and other toxic heavy metals

The environmental impact of the carbon dioxide generated from a coal powered plant – 3.7 million tons – is equal to cutting down 100 million trees. By comparison, renewable energy has a minimal impact on wildlife.

For a Cleaner, Safer Environment

Harnessing the wind is one example of sustainable energy. In 2010 an environmental group advising the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service drafted recommendations on the best sites for wind turbines. The turbines would be strategically placed in locations to lower the chances of birds and bats flying into them and being killed. The group’s efforts were part of a larger movement to protect the environment.

“Wind energy is an important part of our clean energy future, but for it to be truly successful, we need thoughtful long-term planning that takes wildlife and habitat conservation into consideration,” said Aimee Delach, a member of the advisory committee and a wind energy and wildlife expert. “These draft guidelines will go a long way toward ensuring that future wind energy development is compatible with birds, bats and other wildlife, and we urge Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to adopt them.”

Truly forward-thinking green energy projects are subject to comprehensive environmental reviews and they are located near large metropolitan areas. They are designed to give first priority to existing transmission lines, rather than laying all new grid works. Instead of deforesting large areas of woodlands where animals live, these types of projects are built in areas such as abandoned agricultural areas or former industrial sites.

On May 7, Salazar took another step towards a greener environment when he approved the opening of Silver State North, a 50-megawatt solar power plant built near Las Vegas. The plant was built on public land only after it had undergone an extensive environmental analysis. An advantage of such a solar plant is the lack of harmful emissions. Also, the energy generated is 100 percent renewable.

Thus far there has been no ship strong enough to prevent an oil spill and no manufacturing plant that is completely emission-free. There probably never will be. In order to preserve the environment, the next logical step in generating energy should be in a new direction.

Douglas Santos is a conservation writer who works with NRDC and other organizations to protect our health and environment. He often urges people to stand up and be more vocal in the effort to save the wolves.

Adjust the settings on the thermostat to reflect the various seasonal temperatures. Keep the house at a slightly lower temperature in winter and raise the temperature slightly in the summer. In addition to doing this, try wearing less or more clothing (depending on the weather), and reduce energy usage in your home and keep your temperature reasonable.

Decorate with brighter wall colors to save electricity. If your walls feature darker colors, you’ll need more electricity to make your space as bright as you want it. With lighter colors in place, you will find the need for illumination is decreased. The house will have a lighter feel and look, as you save money.

Turn the heat down in your house. If you find the air a little chilly, put on a sweater or an extra pair of socks. You waste a lot of energy if you put the heat on higher than necessary.

You can improve your home’s energy efficiency by being responsible with your lights. In the months with more sunshine and longer days, try not to turn on lights until it is past a certain hour. You can also install dimmer switches, timers and sensors to help with energy savings.

Research the different energy sources available in your community. Look into the cost of operating your home with each of your options, keeping in mind any recent changes to legislation about energy costs. You may choose, for example, to go from electric to natural gas for heating, or using a well instead of city water.

Think about getting solar powered lamps for outdoor lighting. Solar lamps are relatively inexpensive and can save you a great deal on wiring and electricity expenses. You save a lot of energy in the process. It means that there is no need to run wires outside to hook up lights.

On-demand water heaters are great energy savers. The old-fashioned water heaters run constantly, even running when not needed and that wastes energy. The water heaters that heat on-demand only heat water that is immediatly needed and save a lot on energy costs.

If your feeling industrious, you can produce your very own renewable energy. This will help reduce energy costs and pollution, and you’ll be on your way to becoming energy-independent. Using renewable energy is the best energy source, and now that it has become popular, it is affordable.

Energy efficient appliances will feature the bright Energy Star sticker. The ENERGY STAR guidelines are set by the U.S.
Department of Energy and those of the Environmental Protection Agency. These appliances are usually the only ones that can be used for tax rebates.

What is the best way to use green energy in your home? You now have an arsenal of tips at your disposal! Once you get started, you will be simply delighted and amazed with what happens!

Information Gathered From Blog Earth 4 Energy

Each week I receive several emails requesting my advice on career paths within the clean energy space. I thought I’d take a few minutes and jot down a few of the ideas that I normally try to express in response.

First, I congratulate people who want to work in this industry, especially if their interest is rooted in a love of the natural environment and perhaps a sense of duty, or at least a wish, to do something good for mankind and the other 8.7 million species of life forms here on our home planet. But regardless of motive, clean energy is one of few arenas in which there exists a beautiful confluence of the profitable and the philanthropic; we’re helping mankind whether that’s our aim or not.

It’s a shame that there are so few such opportunities, but that does seem to be the case. We tend to think that we either fight hard to protect the jobs we have, as much as we may detest them — jobs that create pollution, addictions, obesity, junky products designed to be obsolete — or we risk starvation in order to pursue our dreams. For once, good opportunities and good citizenship are running together; let’s begin by noting that.

Next, I point out that picking an exact discipline within the realm of clean energy is tough, for many reasons. For instance, there are dozens of  different clean energy technologies, and it’s hard to know at this point which ones will come to dominate the landscape of tomorrow.

Complicating matters further, we’ve all seen instances in which an inferior product came to lead the market. If you doubt this, you need look no further than the computer you’re reading this piece on, which, in all likelihood, runs a Microsoft operating system. Computer experts in the 1990s (when I was paying closer attention to this subject) described Windows as an “abomination”; some referred to it as “the equivalent of cancer for a computer” — yet it came to command the marketplace.

But even in a perfect world, picking winners is tricky business, because of the huge variety of factors that influence the outcome. As an example, will solar thermal receive the support it needs from the public and private sector such that sufficient R&D will be focused on lowering costs and boosting efficiencies?  Right now, it’s an open question, but it’s a critical one.  If the answer is yes, most observers believe there exists huge potential here; but if the answer is no, it’s essentially doomed to remain a non-event in the energy world.

Then there is the issue of breadth. The science, i.e., the physics, chemistry, biology, engineering, and so forth, is just one aspect to the successful implementation of clean energy. Think of the sheer number of disciplines that are required if we are to make the migration from fossil fuels. Here’s a partial list:

Education, Marketing, Sales, and Public Relations: Someone needs to enlighten a population of people who are currently being told that they should support the “drill baby drill” policy; the world (at least the United States) is being force-fed utter lies about the legitimacy of the oil and coal companies — erroneous beliefs that someone must set right.  We have a very long road ahead of us here — which is sad in a way, though it opens up significant career opportunities.

Manufacturing and Construction: I conducted the first interview in my most recent book, “Is Renewable Really Doable?” with Robert Pollin, Ph.D.,  Professor of Economics and Co-Director of the Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst. Dr. Pollin also functions as a consultant to the Energy Department on implementing the Obama Administration’s stimulus program.

Here’s part of what he told me re: job growth in the energy efficiency sector:

My own estimates are in the range of $800 billion worth of work if you retrofitted basically the entire existing building stock to the level necessary, which of course is not going to happen, but at least analytically, there’s no reason for it not to happen because it does save people money. So that is a big project, and think about it, there’s no way this is importing competition; it has to be done in local communities.

And it’s relatively labor intensive; it offers opportunities for people with relatively low credentials. To retrofit an average project if you spend $1 million, you’ll get about eight jobs directly, and another eight jobs either indirectly—meaning jobs for the suppliers—or jobs created through a multiplier effect, through people having more money because they have jobs and then they’re spending the money. So you’ll get between 16 to 17 jobs per million-dollar expenditure in retrofit projects. Which is good. It’s not the best, but it’s certainly the best in the area of energy.

This is a project that could go on for 20 years and could make everybody save money – and I mean everybody. There are subsidies out there, but the market really hasn’t taken off yet.

Let’s compare spending money on green energy versus fossil fuels. You’re going to get about three times more jobs per dollar of expenditure through clean energy, and here I’m referring both to efficiency and renewable investments. Three to one.

Now yes, part of that is because the pay level and the skill requirements for the clean energy jobs tend to be lower. I don’t see that as necessarily so bad because it creates more entry-level jobs. Some of them have decent job ladders, and the other thing is because you’re creating three times more jobs overall, in absolute terms you’re going to have more jobs of all types, of all quality levels, of all pay levels. That’s something else that I’ve shown.

So yes, proportionately, dollar for dollar you get higher quality, more skill and education requirements through spending in the fossil fuel economy, but that does not compensate for the fact that dollar for dollar you get three times more jobs overall in clean energy; you get more jobs at all levels through the clean energy economy.

Law: The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)  bills itself as the nation’s most effective environmental action group, combining the grassroots power of 1.3 million members and online activists with the courtroom clout and expertise of more than 350 lawyers, scientists and other professionals.

At the end of the day, this breadth is a good thing. What it means is that there are tons of different ways of approaching the subject and involving oneself within it.

As I like to say when I’m asked this question on radio or television interviews: with the possible exception of Scottish Folk Tunes, every single subject that one can take in college has bearing in one way or another on the migration to clean energy.

Think about it: in addition to the science/technological side, we have:

• Sociology – How do groups of people think and act with respect to social and anti-social behavior?

• Anthropology – How has mankind evolved to deal with the long-range planning that is so essential to our survival at this point?

• Psychology – At an individual level, how do people react to the challenge of doing the right thing, even if it’s a bit more expensive?

• Economics – Who will bear the cost of renewable energy and cleantech?

• Political science – How should our elected leaders help to make this happen?

• Philosophy – What are our rights as they relate to common property like the oceans and skies? Our moral obligations?

I suppose I would simply remind career-minded people who are looking into clean energy to choose a discipline that they actually enjoy. Not everyone likes to sell, just as not everyone’s good at thermodynamics. But everyone likes something, and in this case that’s all that matters. My advice:  just pick a “something” that you like – and then get damn good at it.

Frequent commenter Duke Brooks writes in:

Americans who rail against U.S. polluters should probably spend a few days in the world’s most polluted city, Beijing. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander, as they say. But the lack of outrage from the American left over China’s mass particulate output would tend to expose them for what they are: A political, not ecological, movement.

I don’t think anyone argues that China’s building coal-fired power plants at the rate of one a week is anything other than an abomination; there isn’t too much controversy there — regardless of where one stands politically.  Yet China is the world’s leading investor in renewable energy, and they face a far larger challenge than we do in terms of supplying energy to a skyrocketing number of energy-hungry consumers; it’s one that dwarfs ours here in the U.S.

I don’t know whether you saw this report I wrote a few months back in an attempt to make sense of this paradox: China Is Investing in Renewable Energy — But Why?