Posts Tagged by Moore’s Law
Moore’s Law — Does It Apply To Renewable Energy?
| February 12, 2011 | Posted by Craig Shields under Renewables - Science |
I often refer to Moore’s Law, which posits that the effectiveness of technology increases exponentially over time. I talk cavalierly about how this “law” (named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, which originally applied to the number of transistors that could be crammed onto a semiconductor chip) can be extrapolated to what we’re all trying to do here in renewable energy.
But how legitimate is all this? Does it apply in some cases, like IT, and not others, e.g., power engineering? In particular, can we use it to predict accurately the results of our driving the technology of renewables forward, as we increase the output of solar, wind, and other forms of clean energy?
If you want a lecture that is anything but cavalier, I present this talk on Moore’s (and Wright’s) Law at the University of Waterloo, Canada. On the other hand, if you don’t like really academic stuff, you may want to skip this one.
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Moore's Law and Renewable Energy
| November 30, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Renewables - Business |
My colleague Bill Moore of EV World wrote an excellent article on the likely trajectory for the price of cars and trucks. In it, he speculated that the prices of electric vehicles (once they are introduced in production quantities) may actually fall steadily, much like the price of consumer electronics — and that this will represent a first-ever event in automotive history.
I agree. In fact, I’m quite certain that we’ll see this effect, as it’s essentially guaranteed by Moore’s Law – (named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore — no relation to Bill — the idea that the sophistication of technology rises and its price falls exponentially over time).
I’m also sure we’ll see this same phenomenon at work driving down in the price of renewable energy. The cost of energy from the burning of fossil fuels is rooted in its ever-shrinking supply, producing prices increases. On the other hand, the price of renewables is all about technology: semiconductors, advanced materials science, nanotechnology, etc. — all areas that can only improve as the years go by.
All we have to do is get over the hump associated with ushering oil and coal off the stage. What do you think it will take to accomplish that, do you suppose?
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Electric Vehicles and Issues with Lithium Ion Batteries
| August 10, 2009 | Posted by Craig Shields under Electric Vehicles |
Alex C. goes on:
In early 1900’s many cars were EVs and then they lost out to gasoline engines due to better cost and performance. 1970’s a large EV wave came in with the fuel crisis that caused gasoline prices to increase greatly…again gasoline won out as fuel prices dropped. Now again we get another EV wave due to high gas prices. Now why will EV win a niche in developed countries? The key enabler is lithium-ion technology that can get the power (he means “energy”) density up for a range that is usable for some consumers and the pack cost will result in economics that work when scale is large enough (500k per year per battery plant).
Yes. And depending on whom you ask, this is really happening quickly. I interviewed an extremely senior engineer and businessman the other day who reminded me that Moore’s Law very much applies to both the cost and energy density of Li-ion batteries. I’d like to think this is true — and it appears that it may, given the last couple of years.
