[The Vector] PV Inverter Demand Booming – For Now

PV - inverters have created a production bottleneck. Picture source: Mhassan abdollahi

Demand for PV inverters continues to boom, according to a report from IMS Research. IMS calculates that 8.3 GW of inverters – worth $2.8 billion – were shipped during 2009. That is a 35% increase in GW terms and 17.9% in cash terms over 2008. During 2009, the price of inverters deciined by around 13% in prices per watt.

In 2010 producers are expected to ship 13.9 GW of inverters – an increase of more than 66% – and the growth would be even greater if a sever component shortage was not limiting inverter production. Prices are expected to stabilize despite the dramatic output growth. 14.6 GW of new PV capacity are expected to be added worldwide in 2010 says The World Market for PV Inverters – 2010’, published July 2010. The figures are based on surveys of inverter suppliers undertaken by IMS Research, together with estimates of demand in 40 countries around the globe.

Utilities reshaping the Inverter market

The development of utility-scale solar plants is changing the shape of the market for PV inverters. Here’s how:

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2GreenEnergy at the Intersolar Show

PhotobucketI’m headed up to San Francisco to the Intersolar show tomorrow morning for a couple of days of meetings, and, of course, checking out the show itself. 

I just realized that I’m entering my fourth decade of attending trade shows now.  I remember seeing a gawky kid with glasses at a show in the early 80s, and someone said, “Oh, that’s Bill Gates. He has a software company.  I wonder if it will go anywhere?” Since then, I can’t count how many events I’m traipsed through in Europe and North America, on some mission or another. 

One thing I find interesting is what I call the “tone” of the show.  Of course, the promoters of all shows represent that theirs is the most exciting event in the universe — even in subject matter areas that most people find dull as dishwater.  But beneath the loud music and the flashing lights, I try to read the true feelings that underlie the show. 

A good example is the auto shows, which I often attend to see the alternate fuel vehicles and to meet the people associated with them.  The car shows in Los Angeles and Detroit these last couple of years still have the glitz and the pretty girls — but there is something palpably wrong: people aren’t buying cars, and the OEMs are obviously scaling way back — on everything: promotions — even entire product annoucements. People still wear smiles — because it’s their job to do so — but you can almost hear them thinking, “Wow, this is terrible.”

It will be interesting to see what Intersolar is like.  Obviously, the solar industry is under some real pressure, with precipitous drops in PV prices with the attendent distressed margins, and a horrible environment for capital formation. Then you have what could be called the recalcitrance of the traditional energy industry. As I’ve often said, these fossil fuel people aren’t going away anytime soon — ecological disaster or no. I would think that this, combined with the overall economic climate, would tend to cast a kind of pallor over the place.

On the other hand, the solar thermal industry — far less mature than PV — boasts some terrific breakthroughs in technologies that are very interesting indeed.

We’ll see what happens — and what that “tone” will be like. I’ll update you on my travels. If you happen to be there and want to say hello, please hit “contact.”

Solyndra – Renewable Energy Cinderella Story

PhotobucketDr. Kelly Truman was good enough to update me on what I have to call a textbook success of the business he started with his partner CEO Chris Gronot.  Solyndra, a venture-capitalized photo-voltaics company, is based in Fremont, CA — and seems to have done essentially everything right.  And that starts with the company’s proprietary PV technology, using cylindrically shaped elements coated with the semiconductor copper indium gallium (di)selenide (or CIGS), which is perfect for large, low-slope roofs, and is targeted mainly to commercial buildings.

There are several features of this technology and its implementation that have come together to form a highly differentiated product that is making a real name for itself around the world in a period of time that is, relative to other similar ventures, unbelievably short. First, because wind blowing through the elements tends to hold the installation on the roof (rather than blow it way) the system can be put in place very easily, quickly, and inexpensively with no penetration of the rooftop itself. Also, CIGS deployed in cylindrical elements results in 25% to 100% more power than conventional thin-film technology installed onto equivalent roofs.

As a business consultant, I’ve lived through dozens of stories of venture-capitalized start-ups, and I have to say that Kelly’s narration of the company’s history makes it sound – to me at least — like one of the smoothest in VC history. The company received its initial venture funding in 2005 and went about the business of building prototypes, working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) which provided the equipment and technology for deposition. Soon the technology was demonstrated, the technical milestones were reached, beta customer feedback was positive – and actually serendipitously helpful; customers would often provide constructive input that none of the principles had thought of — e.g., “Do you realize that this could be used for — (some new application)?”

But the good news goes on: Solyndra took over a facility that Seagate (the hard disk-drive manufacturer) had abandoned when they took their operations overseas, and smoothly completed its third-party testing, validating not only the energy efficiency of its products, but also their seismic and wind readiness. By mid-2008 the first volume customer shipments were coming off the loading docks, and the company has grown in revenue in every subsequent quarter.

Looking for some plot twist or at least some conflict to make this story more interesting, I asked if investors getting antsy for a liquidity event, like an IPO on an acquisition by a publicly traded company. “No,” Kelly says, “They’re wonderfully patient. They know we’re in this to make a real difference against the reality of global warming, and that will require some time for growth. To give you an idea of their patience, we received a nine-figure from the DoE which required us to put up 27%. Even in this financial climate, our investors made sure this happened.”

Kelly Truman and I don’t know one another outside of this one-time encounter, and so I didn’t feel it was my place to ask anything else. When the interview was over, I politely thanked him and hung up. But I have to admit that I was wondering: Do his kids have naturally straight teeth? Are they headed for Ivy League colleges on full academic scholarships? I somehow feel that I want to hang out with Kelly, as he’s obviously doing a great number of things right.

I’m kidding here, of course. What I really mean is this: congratulations.