I’ve been preparing to make a few videos for newcomers to the subject of clean energy that answer basic questions on renewable energy, fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and the energy-related challenges we face.  I’ll be recording a series of short talks, aided by graphics, that point out that all our energy sources go back to the Big Bang, and come forward through time to us as follows:

Solar power is nuclear, of course, as all that hydrogen that became our sun billions of years ago undergoes fusion and emits enormous amounts of energy. That which we accumulated over hundreds of millions of years as fossil fuels (ancient biomass) we extract and burn as oil, coal, and natural gas. That which we receive right now, or in the very recent past, we have the potential to harvest as renewables: photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, wind, new biomass, run-of-river hydro, ocean current, and wave.

Tidal and geothermal are two energy-related products of the Big Bang that don’t derive from the sun. Tides are caused largely by the moon, which was created by a huge collision shortly after the formation of the Earth. Geothermal energy actually has four different causes (the energy of impacts, friction from heavier elements migrating toward the core, radioactive decay and compression due to gravity) — all of which stem, however indirectly, from the mass and energy released in the Big Bang.

Nuclear energy comes from splitting some large atoms that resulted as simpler elements combined after the Big Bang. Here, I’ll point out that nuclear reactions are perfectly safe when they occur 93 million miles from us – on the sun, where they belong.  Though, as we’re slowly learning, this is not necessarily the case down here where we live.

Coincidentally, Bill Paul, our renewable energy finance guru, has been working along a similar vein, and sent me this masterpiece, a site on environmentalism for kids. I hope you’ll check it out.

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I was disappointed to learn that the gigawatt solar project in Blythe, CA decided to switch from CSP to PV. The issue, at least on the surface, is “bankability,” i.e., maturity of the technology, along with the obvious fact that the price of PV is falling sharply – 30% in 2010 alone. But at a certain point, I’m hoping that someone somewhere sees the awesome potential of CSP and really starts to crank on it.

When that happens, we’ll start to see ideas like Ahura Energy start to come into greater focus, if you’ll pardon the pun.

Solar thermal, of course, comes in many different flavors — some (like Ahura) claiming to have made breakthroughs in cost and/or efficiency.  I’ve met with these people, like the concept as I understand it, but still haven’t been told the details of the secret sauce.

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In light of another stormy winter and plenty of snow falling around the country, there has been more talk about the following question: can PV solar panels work in snow and cold?

Solar PV panels can indeed work in a cold, snowy climate especially if there are sunny days and good exposure of the panels. In fact, several companies point out that PV panels work best in the cold, as the output of silicon can reduce in very hot weather. However, when snow piles up on panels and blocks all sunlight, the panels obviously stop working. Most say this happens after a few inches accumulate, but that a light dusting doesn’t stop functions and the light dusting will most likely melt off in sunlight.  But many areas of the country are getting more than a light dusting of snow.  What to do?

The majority of companies and experienced users say tilted panels are a good defense. Many panels are tilted at an angle to catch the sun and the tilt may often help the snow slide right off and away. Several experts including Canadian company True North Power Systems says that a winter angle of 65% or more is optimal for snow to slide. The sun is lower in the sky during winter and days are shorter, so a winter tilt makes good sense even without snow, says a number of experts.

Another tool against snow that does cover panels? Snow rakes with long handles have been making inroads. These rakes are made for snowy panels and they have a squeegee-like strip on them, helping not to damage expensive solar panels. Snow rakes are more common in New England.

Some users of rakes say beware the avalanche of snow when you sweep. And if you decide to stand on a ladder or use any other precarious position in slippery winter conditions, take care. Keep in mind – if there’s not enough sun to melt off the snow, there’s probably not enough sun to harvest by the panels either. On the other hand, PV panels can get extra power from sunlight reflected off nearby snow.

One PV user said that she did nothing to clear her home roof panels of snow in December and had very low PV production, but had worked out a system to clear the panels with a snow rake and had 25% more production already in January.  However, other bloggers whose panels did not or could not tilt the panels and who had no easy access to clean them reported there was nothing they could do and did not get much solar power.

Founder of Dynamic Solar LLC, Michael Perillo, said that as far as maintenance of solar panels go, bird droppings, bird nests, pollen and squirrels are more of a hindrance than snow to solar panels working properly. Light maintenance is required to keep the panels in good working order in any season, and the investment into the panels means homeowners should work it into an annual maintenance, like with anything.

What about the product Rain-X, which helps to keep car windshields clear during heavy rain or snow?  While some say they have used it on solar panels, a little research shows that a number of solar companies say beware – it is slightly conductive and can cause some electrical problems or affect the framing materials.  Rain-X is apparently for glass only. Most say that simple soap & water works best, though there are some commercial cleaning fluids.  Check with your solar company.

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Accompanying that impression of enormous scope is the feeling that this industry is here to stay, communicated by how many older and established industries have formed strong interconnections. In addition to the dozens of PV and CSP systems (different technologies, configurations, materials, etc.), we have:

Components (uncountable numbers of connectors and subsystems)

Testing and certification (Companies that test everything from bulldozers to Band-Aids now have business practices that specialize in the safety and efficacy of solar.)

Robotics (Machine tools that make cars and printed circuit boards now arrange PV cells into panels.)

Supply chain management. (SAP had its own booth, demo’ing its enterprise resource planning software developed specifically for the solar industry.)

Financing (equity capital, debt, tax, project financing)

State and local government (each extolling the virtues of their region of the world)

Media (online, print magazines, and events)

I’m thrilled to see a trade show of that scope – one which, if it had been held 10 years ago, would have fit nicely in my living room.

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That’s understandable, since if people don’t make money bringing clean energy along, it’s not going to happen. And no one wants to take unnecessary risks, especially in this climate.

The point of “grid parity,” i.e., the point that an incremental megawatt of solar is the exact same cost as an incremental megawatt of gas or coal, is projected to occur somewhere between early 2014 and late 2018. This is based on the fact that although natural gas prices are low and are expected to remain so, the cost of PV is falling steadily.

When this happens, of course, one should expect an explosion of solar development. Even the utilities in the South (great progressive social thinkers that they are) who have routinely said, “Suh, if clean energy means mah costs go up one penny pah kilowatt-hour, we’re not intahrested,” will be buying and selling clean without a problem.

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PV - inverters have created a production bottleneck. Picture source: Mhassan abdollahi

In 2010 producers are expected to ship 13.9 GW of inverters – an increase of more than 66% – and the growth would be even greater if a sever component shortage was not limiting inverter production. Prices are expected to stabilize despite the dramatic output growth. 14.6 GW of new PV capacity are expected to be added worldwide in 2010 says The World Market for PV Inverters – 2010’, published July 2010. The figures are based on surveys of inverter suppliers undertaken by IMS Research, together with estimates of demand in 40 countries around the globe.

The development of utility-scale solar plants is changing the shape of the market for PV inverters. Here’s how:

Demand for utility-scale solutions is growing in the US, but also in China and India. By 2014 the IMS Research report forecasts that 25% of all inverter shipments will be megawatt-sized turnkey substations.

The other market segment forecast to grow very rapidly is multi-string, three-phase 10-18kW inverters. Shipments of these products are forecast to grow very rapidly in Europe due to high demand from integrators and installers wanting small three-phase inverters for mid-sized commercial installations.

There is a danger of overheating in the market. Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic and others plan to reduce or have reduced their feed-in tariffs or other incentives. IMS Research has also found evidence of double-ordering, where companies order inverters from more than one source in order to beat the shortages with the intention of cancelling the second order once the first is delivered. However IMS Research does not expect a crash in PV inverter prices but rather a slowdown and price softening at the start of 2011. They believe that new Asian markets and demand from the US will reduce the impact of the fall-away in demand from Europe. During the first quarter of 2010 demand from Asia (at 365 MW) was almost triple demand in the first quarter of 2009.

According to the report, Chinese PV cell and module suppliers have been hit hard by the depreciation in the Euro against the US dollar and the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (RMB). The bulk of the Chinese suppliers’ costs are in RMB while a substantial portion of their revenues are in Euros. The Euro is worth 15% less in RMB terms than it was six months ago. It is estimated that over 70% of the PV modules produced in China were shipped to Eurozone markets in H1’10.　

The Chinese government responded to the potential crisis with greater support for growth in the domestic market. It announced plans for 13 PV power stations ranging from 20 MW to 30 MW in North and Northwest China and set up bidding auctions for suppliers. The IMS Research report authors believe the Chinese government is likely to come under increasing pressure to launch a national feed-in tariff if Chinese suppliers continue to struggle with unfavorable exchange rates in Europe.　

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I just realized that I’m entering my fourth decade of attending trade shows now.  I remember seeing a gawky kid with glasses at a show in the early 80s, and someone said, “Oh, that’s Bill Gates. He has a software company.  I wonder if it will go anywhere?” Since then, I can’t count how many events I’m traipsed through in Europe and North America, on some mission or another.

One thing I find interesting is what I call the “tone” of the show.  Of course, the promoters of all shows represent that theirs is the most exciting event in the universe — even in subject matter areas that most people find dull as dishwater.  But beneath the loud music and the flashing lights, I try to read the true feelings that underlie the show.

A good example is the auto shows, which I often attend to see the alternate fuel vehicles and to meet the people associated with them.  The car shows in Los Angeles and Detroit these last couple of years still have the glitz and the pretty girls — but there is something palpably wrong: people aren’t buying cars, and the OEMs are obviously scaling way back — on everything: promotions — even entire product annoucements. People still wear smiles — because it’s their job to do so — but you can almost hear them thinking, “Wow, this is terrible.”

It will be interesting to see what Intersolar is like.  Obviously, the solar industry is under some real pressure, with precipitous drops in PV prices with the attendent distressed margins, and a horrible environment for capital formation. Then you have what could be called the recalcitrance of the traditional energy industry. As I’ve often said, these fossil fuel people aren’t going away anytime soon — ecological disaster or no. I would think that this, combined with the overall economic climate, would tend to cast a kind of pallor over the place.

On the other hand, the solar thermal industry — far less mature than PV — boasts some terrific breakthroughs in technologies that are very interesting indeed.

We’ll see what happens — and what that “tone” will be like. I’ll update you on my travels. If you happen to be there and want to say hello, please hit “contact.”

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There are several features of this technology and its implementation that have come together to form a highly differentiated product that is making a real name for itself around the world in a period of time that is, relative to other similar ventures, unbelievably short. First, because wind blowing through the elements tends to hold the installation on the roof (rather than blow it way) the system can be put in place very easily, quickly, and inexpensively with no penetration of the rooftop itself. Also, CIGS deployed in cylindrical elements results in 25% to 100% more power than conventional thin-film technology installed onto equivalent roofs.

As a business consultant, I’ve lived through dozens of stories of venture-capitalized start-ups, and I have to say that Kelly’s narration of the company’s history makes it sound – to me at least — like one of the smoothest in VC history. The company received its initial venture funding in 2005 and went about the business of building prototypes, working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) which provided the equipment and technology for deposition. Soon the technology was demonstrated, the technical milestones were reached, beta customer feedback was positive – and actually serendipitously helpful; customers would often provide constructive input that none of the principles had thought of — e.g., “Do you realize that this could be used for — (some new application)?”

But the good news goes on: Solyndra took over a facility that Seagate (the hard disk-drive manufacturer) had abandoned when they took their operations overseas, and smoothly completed its third-party testing, validating not only the energy efficiency of its products, but also their seismic and wind readiness. By mid-2008 the first volume customer shipments were coming off the loading docks, and the company has grown in revenue in every subsequent quarter.

Looking for some plot twist or at least some conflict to make this story more interesting, I asked if investors getting antsy for a liquidity event, like an IPO on an acquisition by a publicly traded company. “No,” Kelly says, “They’re wonderfully patient. They know we’re in this to make a real difference against the reality of global warming, and that will require some time for growth. To give you an idea of their patience, we received a nine-figure from the DoE which required us to put up 27%. Even in this financial climate, our investors made sure this happened.”

Kelly Truman and I don’t know one another outside of this one-time encounter, and so I didn’t feel it was my place to ask anything else. When the interview was over, I politely thanked him and hung up. But I have to admit that I was wondering: Do his kids have naturally straight teeth? Are they headed for Ivy League colleges on full academic scholarships? I somehow feel that I want to hang out with Kelly, as he’s obviously doing a great number of things right.

I’m kidding here, of course. What I really mean is this: congratulations.

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