In my opinion, this is exciting stuff. The company is looking for investor, btw; if you’re interested, please let me know.

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I agree with a great deal of this, but the figures on the amount of energy and the amount of money are off by several orders of magnitude:  ”A KPMG study expects that electricity consumption in China will rise to 6,400 TWh by 2020, up from 3,600 TWh in 2010. To meet that demand, approximately $2.8 billion in additional investment will be needed, says KPMG.” $2.8 billion won’t cover the cost of the cigars for the bureaucrats overseeing this effort.

In any case, there are some excellent observations made here.

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These same wind turbines have been chosen for the world’s largest wind farm, the 845MW Shepherd’s Flat project in north central Oregon. 338 turbines will be installed; GE says that this turbine yields the highest energy production in its class, building upon its earlier successful 1.5MW turbines (more than 16,000 installed worldwide.) Owned and managed by Caithness Energy, it is estimated that the Shepherd’s Flat farm will power 235,000 average U.S. homes. Operations begin in 2012. GE is a partial financier of the project, along with Google, Sumitoma Corp. and others.  Key components of the new 2.5MW turbines will be manufactured at GE’s plan in Pensacola, Florida.

GE has forged a relationship in China over the years, having previously supplied gas turbines, steam turbines, hydro and wind turbines. Last year, the company announced a new joint venture in China. GE holds 49% and a subsidiary of Harbin Power Equipment holds 51%, and the new company will manufacture GE designed wind turbines for both offshore and near-shore installations in China.

Jack Wen, president of GE Energy China, was quoted as saying. “This is an important investment in China for GE and one that will enable us to participate in the tremendous growth potential of the Chinese wind turbine segment.”  Why would mega-force China, that already has the world’s largest wind turbine sales territory, enter into this arrangement? For one reason, it is anticipated that its market will surge by 500%, with installed capacity soaring from 25 GW in 2009 to 150 GW by 2020. This is thanks to a strong renewable energy plan.

What about solar?

While far behind its wind activity, GE is stepping in to solar. CEO Jeff Immelt identified solar as a key growth platform for the company, saying it could generate $3B in sales by 2015, as reported in the Financial Times (April 7, 2011.) GE announced it will build a 400 MW manufacturing facility in the US by 2013 to produce thin film solar panels. Most current solar modules are made with silicon wafers, but thin film solar panels use different materials that are less expensive and more flexible though not yet quite as efficient as silicon. Researchers are working at thin film technology every day.

GE researchers actually set a world record of 12.8% efficiency for thin film solar panels recently. GE invested in small thin film solar startup company, Primestar Solar, back in 2007. By 2010, the research activities were in full swing with a global team in the U.S., Germany, China and India researching and testing. GE fully expects to exceed the 12.8% mark when its commercial-scale factory opens in 2013. “14% to 15% is in the cards,” said Victor Abate at GE, who oversees solar, wind and renewable energy at the Fairfield, CT base.  Abate said that GE is confident that thin film solar has long-term advantages over other solar technologies.

GE is licensing the company eSolar’s technology using flat mirrors to concentrate sunlight to heat up water in a tank on a tower for steam; the steam runs a turbine and to generate electricity, with the design configuration such that each tower has 4MW capacity (at about 12% efficiency.) GE is using the technology in concert with natural gas for a hybrid power solution. The license is exclusive worldwide (except India and China) which also allows the construction of stand-alone thermal power plants. Solar plants cannot produce energy at night so using this technology allows power plants to cut the use of natural gas. “It’s critical for natural gas to pair well with renewable sources,” said Paul Browning, CEO of thermal products at GE Energy.

A few other projects to mention

This year, GE joined an alliance with other companies to develop the U.K. smart meter market, to help meet a government goal to install 53 million smart meters in homes and businesses by 2020. Last March, the U.K. government announced this plan to help cut electricity use and lower greenhouse emissions, which can ultimately save money. This may end up being a $6.2B market, reported Bloomberg news (June 22, 2011.)

LED lights are another interesting story at GE. Walmart engaged GE around the world for LED lighting systems inside and out. “The normally high costs of outdoor lighting can be turned into an energy efficiency bellwether for the company and the industry as a whole,” said Charles Zimmerman, VP at Walmart (GE website.) Lighting can take nearly one-third of a Walmart store’s energy consumption.  To start the project, Walmart made a 22 store in Puerto Rico – all stores now use GE’s LED lights for parking lots, which is expected to save up to 48% of the electricity use previously in place, less maintenance costs and bring a 10 year life, much longer than the traditional lighting that was used before. LED lights are also transforming the retailer’s displays indoors, and is expected to eventually transform the retail industry.

In an open letter to all on the GE website, Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt and Mark Vachon, VP of ecoimagination, write that ecoimagination is working. It is, they say, GE’s business strategy to create new value by solving energy, efficiency and water problems through innovation.

In 2010, it has met each of the goals set including $5B of clean tech research investment, $85B in revenue from ecoimagination products, 30% reduction in water use and $130M in energy efficiency savings.  The company helped drive adoption of electric cars by purchasing 25,000 EVs and launching the WattStation chargers; and of course, it held the ecoimagination Challenge and helped launch 22 new ecoimagination products in 2010.

What are the GE ecoimagination goals set for the next five years?

According to Vachon and Immelt:

• Double green-tech R&D investment to $10B
• Grow ecoimagination revenue at twice the rate of GE revenues
• Reduce energy intensity by 50% and greenhouse gas emissions by 25%
• Reduce water use by 25%

What else does GE’s Immelt see on the horizon?

In a speech in Washington D.C. earlier this year, CEO Immelt weighed in on energy policy and business. He said, “Energy policy is controversial and it’s unlikely that the U.S. will lead. But how many times do we have to watch massive energy price volatility before we do something. I truly believe that the U.S. can achieve energy security through investment in energy infrastructure and R&D, and I also know we can create jobs through energy efficiency retrofit programs and other programs…”

We need, he continued, to “…improve the collaboration between government and business. History I think has proved the superiority of market economies where private initiative and individual choice are the great engines of progress. But business and government can work together to improve our competitiveness. Government should encourage business as it seeks to revitalize our manufacturing competitiveness with incentives for investing in R&D, opening new markets to our goods and trade agreements, and changing tax policies that discourage business from investing over-seas earnings back in the U.S.”

 All eyes will continue to follow GE.

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CSP would be a much better match for air-conditioning driven peaks, and could be “big,” too. But maybe a tiny country like Abu Dhabi does not have enough domestic land for CSP, and aren’t willing to import electricity from a neighboring emirate.

Yes, CSP would be incredible, given the synchronicity with the load, which, as I mentioned, is a whopping 85% air conditioning.  But I’m sure you’re right about the landmass.

And what you say about their not wanting to buy power reminds me of the unique rules, idiosyncrasies, traditions, and hidden relationships that exist in each of the 180+ countries on Earth. Even within our 50 states, there is a daunting number of regional, state and local rules that were put into place to make money for the energy industry, while regulating that industry so consumers didn’t get totally fleeced.

Now enter renewables, with their own set of variables: intermittencies, grid-tie and transmission issues, environmental consequences, suitability for certain kinds of storage, etc. It’s really going to require a whole new set of thinking.  Are we intellectually capable — and honest enough to make all this happen?  It remains to be seen.

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Frequent Commenter John F. Robbins writes this marvelous response to the 2GreenEnergy survey on renewables:

The most missing question or comment in your survey and most of this blog is how to move away from the current energy-guzzling nature of our culture. Almost all the old-wave renewable energy discussion (prior to 2000) was heavy and serious on how to use less prior to or while trying to convert to renewables. Yet now, under the mantra of “creating jobs” or “increasing profits and tax collection” or just “new-wave RE advocacy”, RE is being pushed with almost no inclusion or demand that energy guzzling be actually reduced.

If we cut energy use first, that would be the most cost-effective solution ranked according to $/energy. That first step would also reduce how much and what scale of RE and storage are needed, thereby lowering those costs substantially.

As long as we allow, tolerate or are part of a culture of ever-increasing energy demand and use, both the futures of conventional and renewable energy are diminished, even bleak. The current energy model cannot exist ad infinitum, simply because it is based on infinite supplies at perpetually low prices.

Even if we didn’t move more quickly to RE, the price of future conventional will certainly be erratic and inflationary, especially as certain sources like oil become more depleted sooner. Natural gas will likely be second to deplete or become super-expensive to deliver in the current scale of demand.

Deceased thinker Donella Meadows often wrote about how our culture was operating beyond its physical limits. We need solutions which go beyond specific technologies and deal with our culture, how to change it so we can use and demand far less energy. Then the prognosis for energy futures gets better faster.

Thanks, John. All this is completely true, and you’re right; I most definitely fall into a faulty manner of thinking re: conservation and efficiency.  There is no doubt that, as a culture, we simply hog far too much energy.

This is why Vaclav Smil says, as he contemplates the effect that two billion more people will have on the Earth, “It depends. Will they use energy at the rate of the North Americans, or the Japanese?”

What I’ve noticed living here in the good ol’ USA is that virtually no one does anything that doesn’t benefit himself or his immediate friends and family. We’ve been programmed to ignore the needs of others, and that programming has been enormously effective. (It wasn’t always like this, btw. When we really became a consumer society after World War II, the idea that economics was an indifferent and often cruel taskmaster controlling all of us was vigorously drummed into our heads.)

Be this as it may, we live in a society in which the vast majority of people will not even consider sacrificing a pleasure for the good of someone else – regardless of how trivial the sacrifice or how enormous the benefit to the other.  In the main, we turn off our lights, replace our incandescent light bulbs, and install low-flow showerheads (when we do), because of our utility bills.  We buy more fuel-efficient cars because of the objectionable price of gasoline.

At the end of the day, if you want to save energy, you have to make it expensive. However, here in the US, we make it artificially cheap. If we had any sincerity about weaning ourselves off coal and oil (which we don’t) we would simply begin to force the producers and consumers of energy from those sources to pay the true and comprehensive costs. If we were to do that, you’d see an enormous change in people’s behavior – not next year, but this afternoon.

Here’s a start. Just take this list of subsidies we give the big oil companies and make them go away.

• Construction bonds at low interest rates or tax-free
• Research-and-development programs at low or no cost
• Assuming the legal risks of exploration and development in a company’s stead
• Below-cost loans with lenient repayment conditions
• Income tax breaks, especially featuring obscure provisions in tax laws designed to receive little congressional oversight when they expire
• Sales tax breaks – taxes on petroleum products are lower than average sales tax rates for other goods
• Giving money to international financial institutions (the U.S. has given tens of billions of dollars to the World Bank and U.S. Export-Import Bank to encourage oil production internationally, according to Friends of the Earth)
• The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
• Construction and protection of the nation’s highway system
• Relaxing the amount of royalties to be paid – apparently, we get about 40% of revenues from oil on public land vs. 60% – 65% in most other countries

Then get the oil and coal companies to pay the increases in healthcare costs caused by aromatics, absorb the cost of the long-term environmental damage. All of this garbage would be gone in a heartbeat.

Again, thanks for your comment.

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I was the guest on a really good hour-long radio interview this afternoon on KMMS-AM, a popular talk/news station in Bozeman, MT.  Host Larry Stancil and I didn’t agree on everything (in fact, we agreed on very little) but we got along fine, and I think everyone learned a great deal. We only had one caller, and he was extremely civil.

To be honest, I was surprised; I was braced for a brouhaha, as I had been told that some of those folks don’t like environmentalists telling them they can’t shoot wolves, etc. But cooler heads prevailed. I’ll post a link to the show when I receive it.

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My appointments on this trip are mainly attempts to refine my approach to raising investment capital for companies in various phases of development in clean energy and electric transportation.  In particular, I remain convinced that I can put into place a financial instrument that will provide early-stage capital for a dozen or so promising ideas — all in one package — a kind of mutual fund for those who are looking for upward exposure from this sector, but do not wish to have all their eggs in one basket.

I have a number of high-powered “friends of friends” to see — within walking distance of one another in the “city that never sleeps.”

I’ll let you know how I do.

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In an average month, I get about a dozen business plans for my review, submitted by entrepreneurs all over the world. Fortunately, most of these represent business concepts are based on technologies that I understand fairly well, and thus it takes only a few minutes for me to evaluate the relative strength of most of these ideas.

Some, however, leave me wondering. Maybe the business is to be based on a claim to a “breakthrough” fuel additive, biomass-to-energy technology, battery chemistry, or any of several other regions where my knowledge base is thin and my “BS Meter” doesn’t function with sufficient accuracy.

I’d like to set up a small group of folks whose combined expertise could speak quickly but effectively to the entire gamut of technologies relevant to clean energy and alternate fuel transportation.  If you know of someone who has a specific and fairly deep area of expertise and wouldn’t mind if I forwarded an occasional email asking for an opinion (in a sentence or two – nothing elaborate is required), please let me know. 

Thanks in advance.

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Thanks for your inquiry about the radio show. Per your request, here is a short write-up of some preliminary ideas.

I believe I would simply make this an extension of the radio and television broadcasts – and live panel discussions – that I’ve done over the past few years. Folks ask me anything they care to about energy and transportation, normally pertaining to the many issues our civilization has with fossil fuels and internal combustion engines, and the cost/benefit of the different flavors of renewables and electric vehicles.

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As I learn more about the electric power utilities, I’m surprised at their large range of readiness with respect to both renewable energy and electric transportation.  Here’s a message that I’ll soon be aiming at senior executives in the power companies, hoping to target especially those that may be somewhat “behind the curve.”

Two questions, if I may:

1) Where will renewables be in your grid-mix in five years?  What about 20?

2) What has your team accomplished with respect to the adoption curve of electric vehicles?

Hello, I’m Craig Shields.  Over the past three decades, I’ve brought strategic business advice to IBM, H-P, Fedex, Sony, 3M, Xerox, GM, Microsoft, AT&T, and hundreds of other enterprises.  Recently, I’ve dedicated myself to the migration to clean energy and electric transportation.

My team and I stand ready to:

- review strategic business concepts

- weigh in on brand identity and messaging

- lead senior management discussion with respect to these and other topics related to sustainability

If you’re interested in speaking with me, I hope you’ll write or call shortly.

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