Saudi Arabia, Oil, and Renewable Energy
A colleague writes: Kent Moors might be an interesting person to interview at some point–especially in light of global energy developments, both renewable and fossil-based.
Sounds like an astute guy indeed. And he’s onto a very important theme in energy, i.e., Saudi Arabia’s implementation of renewables, enabling them to sell more oil to the rest of the world. It’s rather like the heroin addict/dealer who is strong enough to kick the habit himself, but remains in the super-lucrative business, selling to those who can’t get clean.
The addict/dealer analogy is quite apt.
The one thing that Dr Moors did not consider there is the Saudi Arabian population bomb.
While there recently has been significant (quiet) efforts to reduce fertility, they still have over 27% of their population below the age of 14, and another 19% of their population under the age of 25. Only 7.7% of their population is currently above the age of 55.
That means that in 20 years, >92% of their current population will still be alive, and >18% of their current population will still be women of child-bearing age. If their growth rate continues as it has, they will have a population of over 45 million people.
They are already consuming ~3 million bbl/d of crude. In 2000 it was less than half that. Their export has dropped considerably in that time, even though their production has grown.
They aren’t trying to export more oil. They are recognizing the reality that the combination of their rapidly growing population and the rapid improvement of lifestyle of their population will result in them consuming ever-more oil, and if they don’t shift gears they’ll become a net oil importer despite sitting on the world’s greatest total liquid oil reserves.
That said, if there can be a fad of indoor ski-slopes in the middle of the Arabian desert (that is a level of waste that should shock anyone), then they certainly have the resources to invest heavily in renewable energy. They probably will shift all of their desalination to renewable powered within a decade or less… plus God only knows. They have the money to make themselves net carbon neutral within a single decade – if only as a show of economic force. I doubt they’ll go quite that far, but who knows?
Reblogged this on Energy post.