Growth in Microgrids Over the Coming 10 Years
Whenever I come across an article like this on microgrids, i.e., “islands” of distributed energy generation, storage, and consumption that are not connected to a power utility, I look at the numbers. If I were a utility exec, how scared would I be about the incursion of microgrids into my turf?
This article projects that by 2022, microgrids worldwide will total 15 GW. Note that our current generation capacity is 15 terawatts, 1000 times that much. I suppose, putting this in perspective, that if you told me that I would lose 1/1000th of my market to an interloper over the next ten years, I could live with that without too much heartburn – especially considering that the total market itself will grow considerably over that period of time.
The article accurately defines microgrids as:
distributed, small-scale versions of the centralized conventional grid systems. This small local nature has its own benefits, such as reliability, flexibility, and enhanced security. Key technology has been introduced to allow widespread adoption of microgrids. Apart from acting as a generation and distribution source like the conventional grid system, microgrids provide a useful platform to integrate renewable resources on the community level and allow for customer participation in the electricity enterprise.
Here are two of my own predictions:
• Yes, microgrids may remain small, though grid-connected distributed generation – especially things like mid-sized wind – will become quite large.
• Though microgrids may remain relatively unimportant in certain parts of the planet, they’ll have a huge influence in the developing world, bringing electrification to rural areas for the first time. This will make a significant impact on global sustainability, as electrification is critical to health and education. Remember that educated women tend to have far fewer children than uneducated women, thus this whole enterprise will have meaningful impact on population growth.
I am involved with the development of a micro-grid system targeted at small communities in rural parts of the developing world. The system is designed to generate and use very small amounts of electricity extremely efficiently to provide basic electrical services such as lights, phone charging, and possibly a fridge for medicines and vaccines.
Our target communities are unlikely to be served by conventional grids any time soon, and our aim is to provide a useful and expandable level of services for minimum cost.
I don’t see micro-grids taking very much if any market from conventional grids, rather the reverse in which utility executives might buy into micro-grids as a way of expanding their market into communities they are presently unable to serve due to lack of affordability of a grid connection.
Such executives would have the potential to first reach market segments they were previously unable to reach, then expand their systems to provide a more complete electrical service, and finally to connect the expanded system to a conventional grid. Local systems could then to run in island mode when the main grid goes down. Eventually it may be possible for a large number of local micro-grids to be connected to the main grid and so collectively provide a degree of electrical storage support giving a more secure supply for everyone.
I think it would be wise to say that educated people have fewer children than uneducated, if you choose to mention population at all. It can be a fairly distracting thing to put in front of a large, diverse audience. If you are interested in cooperative action plans, it might be wise not to bring it up.