The Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
Considering all the writing I’ve done on the EV adoption curve over the past 18 months or so, I was interested in the immense amount of discussion on the subject at the “Business of Plugging In” conference in Detroit earlier this week. Here are a few comments, for what they’re worth.
I noted a great deal of speculation about “range anxiety,” i.e., dread of running out of charge away from home or a charging station. There is no doubt in my mind that, until opportunity charging can be made fast, convenient and ubiquitous — a process that will certainly require many decades — there will be some people who will cling fast to their gasoline-powered cars (at least until the demand for gas goes so low that it is no longer supplied). Having said that, the EV owners I’ve spoken with say that they got over this anxiety fairly quickly. You simply have to take a moment and plan ahead to ensure you’re not taking a chance of running out of charge. They say that it’s not altogether different than driving with gasoline; you need to be aware of what that needle reads and plan accordingly.
Another point that I found valuable was the reminder that the communications industry had estimated an approximate 2% penetration of cell phones. They had somehow missed the fact that once people have them, use them, and tell their friends about them, there is a very direct route to everyone’s wanting one.
The case here, I believe, will closely parallel cell phones. EV technology costs are falling, performance is improving, wars in the Middle East are raging, and CO2 levels are rising. I really don’t know what could happen to make this migration happen any faster.
It might sound unreal but I think I have the answer for that migration.
I have been working on a project for the last 13 years with help of engineers employed by the big-three in Michigan, of a five passenger crossover concept EV capable of reaching highway speeds and have a decent range using advanced lead-acid batteries and with a MSRP of under $20 K (batteries included), before gvt. incentives. Range anxiety could be eradicated with construction of swapping stations inside gas-stations without interfering with their normal petro-products business, each capable of serving over 34,000 vehicles a day, non-stop 24/7. Each exchanging session would take a mere couple of seconds. Should any of our future customers get stranded on the highway, no problem, a slighted modified AAA tow truck could come over and do the roadside swapping in a few minutes. Another chapter of the project covers a wiring embedded highway lane which would supply the motors of the EVs. while recharging their batteries during their trip, all in a wireless manner. This idea seems to be too far in the future? IAV from Germany is already working on a project similar to mine and promising to release a test lane pretty soon.
Should we manage to materialize these concept ideas, the migration from fossil fuels could become reality within a very few years.
For more info, write to Roberto DePaschoal
info@ev-motion.com
Roberto:
I’m very interested in speaking with you about this. Please call when it’s convenient.
Thanks,
Craig Shields
Editor
2GreenEnergy
805-693-1017 (office)
805-245-9366 (cell)
http://www.2GreenEnergy.com
Going back to your article, I think you’re dead right on comparing the
EV situation with the beginning of the adoption of cell phone technology.
I would compare the Lithium-Ion battery situation with the VCR’s. After a long
battle for reducing their sizes and make them more affordable (I remember
paying $1,700 for my half-ton Sony Betamax back in 1977) comes along a DVD
system murdering the idea altogether. (Don’t you forget that Moore’s law
doesn’t apply to electro-chemistry).
In my modest opinion, if we focus our efforts and resources in EV stationary
infrastructure, we could use nothing but good ol’lead-acid batteries in our
very affordable cars and have an unlimited range of operation. The only range you need in battery mode is to get to the nearest swapping station or to the entrance of a dedicated highway lane and then travel non-stop from NY to LA.
We would leave all range anxiety to the owners of conventional and polluting vehicles. They watch the needle, and we just have to listen to our GPS equipped hi-tech system; we always have a “full tank” whenever we leave home in the morning, anyway.
Another problem that could be solved with that innovation is highway
gridlock.
Studies confirm that no more than 2,500 vehicles per lane can travel in an
hour at average freeway speeds. Whereas in my concept #5, over 20,000 would go through at the same speed on each dedicated lane. If you fill each vehicle with five persons, you have a flow of 100,000 people traveling per lane on each hour.
The idea could derail most commuter train controverted projects, as amongst many advantages, we are also adding the convenience of an independent mobility on each vehicle before they hit the highway as well as between the last exit and the arrival at the final destination.
As we already have a highway and filling stations network infrastructure, why not use it on a more benign and rational way?
Roberto.