Moore’s Law and the Trajectory for Renewable Energy
Each year, we come across a new set of discussions on the subject of Moore’s Law — the idea that the potency of technology doubles every two years. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore observed that the number of transistors that could be put onto an integrated circuit doubled with that regularity — and that this exponential growth persisted for an astonishingly long period of time.
Of course, we look upon this “law” figuratively. There is no secret force that makes it apply to every technology – or that requires the period of time in question to be exactly two years. But we’ve all seen adequate proof of the “spirit of the law,” i.e., that many technologies do, in fact, experience some sort of geometric expansion.
As we should have expected, it was only a matter of time until pundits began to debate the relation of Moore’s law to the energy industry. Recently we’ve seen numerous conversations regarding its application to the development of renewable energy technologies.
However, many people say that it simply doesn’t apply in this case, as such projected growth ignores the basic realities of energy: the long-term maturation of technologies, and the hard limits in efficiency that are put on us by more senior laws – namely those of physics itself. But here are a few points to consider:
1) The most exciting part of the energy industry is not about exploration for increasingly scarce fossil fuels; it’s about technology in areas that have nothing to do with oil and gas — and that are in the same nascent state today as IT was in the second half of the 20th Century when Moore was making his now-famous observation. In fact, clean energy is about dozens of different technologies: nano, bio, semiconductor, quantum mechanical, materials science, and nuclear — to name a few. Simultaneous to mankind’s pumping its oil fields dry, today we have frequent breakthroughs in dozens of different areas affecting renewable energy. Why shouldn’t we think that Moore’s Law is at least as applicable to this myriad of technologies as it is to silicon chips?
2) There remain many possibilities for “Black Swan” events in energy. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s theory of Black Swan events looks at the impact of one-off occurrences that are uncomputable and unforeseeable; the disaster of 9/11 and the development of the Internet are two examples that he and other scholars commonly offer. I’m sure you’ve heard people ask, for instance, “What’s the next Google?” I.e., what’s the next paradigm shift? That’s a legitimate question, don’t you think? I personally am quite convinced that the energy industry will experience quite a number of Googles in the coming 50 years or so.
3) Keep in mind the nature and scope of the problem we’re trying to solve. The Earth receives 6000 times more energy from the sun each day than all 7 billion of us consume. All we need is a solution that results in our capturing 1/6000th of this energy as useful work. For the entire continent of North America, we need a distributed solar thermal array totaling about 1/12 the size of New Mexico.
Would this be a challenge? Sure. So was gearing up to win World War II – but we did it. And once this is done, we can all turn our attention to something else — you name it – how about the eradication of poverty, illiteracy, and disease? Does that do anything for you? How about space exploration? My point here is that there is an “end game” – and that I believe we’re actually fairly close to seeing it.
Now, the idea that we’re just around the corner from this end game is good news for most people. But is it good for the traditional energy industry? No. And perhaps that’s why getting there will be so monstrously difficult. But we mustn’t dismiss the idea merely because it perturbs a few wealthy and powerful people who are hell-bent on becoming even wealthier and more powerful – even at the expense of the health and wellbeing of the rest of us. What we must do, on the contrary, is to know that the migration to renewables is a clear and immediate threat to the traditional energy industry – and that this creates political challenges that are 10 times tougher than the technology issues.
It’s going to take some real work getting there. But the prize is — shall we say — considerable.
While I concur that renewable energy sources are the solution to the shortfalls seen in traditional fossil fuel resources, I think that you are stategically missing the opportunity to draw in good folks to your crusade by implying that fossil fuels are bad and renewables are good. There are way too many nuances to be so black and white. Global warming be damned, you are not going to convince everyone that it is caused by anthropogenic inputs to the global system. You are much more likely to convince most everyone that we need to add renewables to the mix to meet increasing demand and let fossil fuels get priced out of the market as they become scarce. Cap and tax is a devisive approach and just puts windfall profits into a different group of fat cats like Al Gore.
We all agree that renewables are the energy sources of the future and we will get their sooner if socialist “progressive” forces will just let this play out in the market. Larry
Larry: Thanks for the note. I agree that there are far more complexities to the story than I acknowledge in this post, and you may be right that I inadvertently drive people away with an occasional oversimplification like this.
And trust me, I would *love* to let this play itself out in the market. The issue, however, is the “level playing field” — or lack thereof. If we can remove the subsidies and other devices that create artificially low prices of fossil fuels, we’ll see the true market demand for renewables; I think you’ll be pretty impressed.
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There is no such thing as an honest oilman. Fossil fuel pushers like BP, Exxon, and the Koch brothers profiteer billions from oil and coal addictions, and spend millions to spread lies that Global warming is not real.
All the money in the fossil fuel industry cannot begin to pay for the Trillions in damages they have done to everyone on the planet, and they know it.
CO2 is now 392ppm and is destroying the environment and causing climate chaos all over the World. We simply must stop burning anything for energy, and need to start removing CO2 from the air and oceans.
A stiff carbon tax would break the addiction to fossil fuels, and that is why Big Oil and Big coal are trying so hard to defeat any tax on carbon.
Carbon Tax and Rebate would actually give 70% of the people a net increase in income, and benefit everyone by ending our fossil fuel addiction.
John: Good to speak with you the other day; thanks for calling in. I too call foul when I find that ExxonMobil spent $40 million specifically to discredit the idea of global warming. I think that ranks with the very most glaring examples of corporate wrongdoing in our history. I have to think that the public scorn that they’ve engendered with this act has made them wish they’d been a bit less deceitful — but you never know. Maybe they see it as a cost of doing business.
Moore’s Law has also come into play on PV solar panels and now with lithium batteries. Each are improving like Moore’s Law but at a little slower pace. Solar has come down in price, up in efficiency at about a 5 year rate, Lithium batteries are getting safer, more dense and lower cost at about a 8 year rate. The only thing that had slowed them down was the lack of interest.
Solar PV was first commercialzed by Bell Labs in 1954 , at 5% efficiency and over $100 a watt, now we have some that are less than a dolar a watt (First Solar) and over 24% efficient SunPower. When will it slow down, I hope never.
Lithiu, batteries are also make great leaps. The magic watts/ kg is getting better each day. Some like Altair Nano lithium are predicted to last over 500,000 mile even charging in under 10 minutes as tested by 3rd party aerovironments. The new Lithium Iron Posphate Maganesse batteries being made by Nissan for the LEAF are another big leap. So good and long lasting at lower cost that Nissan set up an American production location in TENN to make the vehicles and batteries.
The notion that Moore’s law, which is and example of Richard Feynman’s admonition that “there is plenty of room at the bottom,” that is that miniaturization yields productive results, should apply to renewable energy is absurd. Changes in wind generator design do not yield small and more efficient and powerful wind generators. While advantages PV design, may yield some performance improvements, the route forward is by no means certain, and most certainly does not include PV electrical generation at night. Finally Solar Thermal facilities cannot be miniaturized without loss of performance, and in the absence of miniaturization their costs will almost surely increase along with the cost of construction materials and labor. The notion that renewables would be subject to Moore’s law is an example of the sort of wish fulfillment fantasy that motivates the renewables industry. There will be no renewables Black Swan, this is another Renewables myth, that is used to deny the staggering fact that renewables by themselves cannot deliver energy on demand.
Craig, thanks for posting this timely read. Did you catch the recent read/podcast on REWorld?
“The Valley of Death: Why Energy Is Not Like IT
We can draw parallels between energy technologies and information technologies all we want. But the simple fact is that ET is not IT. ”
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/podcast/2010/09/the-valley-of-death-why-energy-is-not-it
I posted my own comments, as well, so I hope it’s okay rehash my thoughts on this topic here…
I like how some sages brought Moore’s Law into the discussion, which I have often heard folks in the RE industry use to suggest how the RE industry will follow Moore’s long-term trend. Naw, ain’t gonna happen.
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I agree with the respondents that cite $/kWh in the PV sector will be a major driving force in more adoption by the masses, why a carbon tax is necessary to level the playing field against the fossil fuel industry, AND, why until there is a catastrophic event/pain for a looooonggggg time to promote change in consumer behaviour, before we will see REs come online on a MASSIVE scale. Then again, if some stealth, sexy, fun technology/game comes along, I’d be down with that, too. We’re in the age of bent on consumerism and poking more holes into our space ship after all. Itisiwhatitis…
I also agree that fossil fuels will continue to be a necessary part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future. Altho I would like to think there could be, I do not think there is an all-encompassing RE panacea–heck, the sun doesn’t shine 24/7/365. Bring on the hybrid RE systems and distributive energy systems, beeby!
Kimberly: Yes, I caught the podcast on RenewableEnergyWorld; in fact, it was that discussion that started me thinking about this whole deal about Moore’s Law as it applies — or fails to apply here. As always, I love the smart but FUN way you write. Thanks for being here!
I have been in the alternative energy biz for twenty eight years. Our primary focus should be conservation of resources thru increased effeciencies and new tech. Any kind of tax will only benefit the government and have loopholes a mile wide. Gore has created a total fiction and has positioned himself thru companies he owns to barter cap and trade on carbon. Let people capitalize on new tech and better effeciencies and keep the government out of our lives. Build nuke plants if you want to cut out coal CO2. Use less but do not tax me more as I am smothered already by taxes. My three favorite quotes are: 1. Ben Franklin, Common sense is an uncommon virtue, 2. Samuel Clemens, Thinkin’s hard work, that’s why so few people do it, and 3. Forrest Gump, stupid is as stupid does. Remember Krakatoa erupted and put out more pollution than any manmade sources.
The Price of Solar PV has dropped like the Computer and Mobile phone prices. The Moore’s Law for there price is effective upto now.Thinfilm Solar PV 55 w panel is available at $1/Wp from QS Solar It will take over and will be competitive like oil and then Coal
http://www.evwind.es/noticias.php?id _not=6770 Solar is a better buy than Nuclear
The True Cost of Solar Power:How Low Can You Go?
http://www.photonconsulting.com/costreport2010/index.php
Please log in and view the webinar PHOTON Consulting – PV Cost Benchmarks: How Low Will They Go? – June 23, 2010
The price that we pay does not include all of the external costs of producing the electricity, such as the real costs associated with smog, acid rain, mercury contamination, thermal pollution, and of course climate change. The costs associated with these impacts show up in different sectors of the economy including increased health care expenditures and reduced recreation opportunities among others. market failures associated with negative externalities should be corrected by imposing a tax on a market exchange equal to the external costs associated with the production and/or consumption of the good or service under consideration.
Then renewables become cost competitive
Concentrated solar with hybrid and stored heat will power 24/7/365 soon. Also please study the proposals of GENI which links all grids of the world and there will be sunshine at least some part of the world any time and so with the Wind the Storage will be minimum!. The hybrid vehicle batteries can be also used to store the required electricity. Energy management will reduce the consumption and use of LED lamps and use of DC for LCD TV’s Computers laptops without many energy conversions will make life cheaper.
People must learn to know the latest information on renewables than being taken away by OIL GAS and Coal suppliers talks.
Using renewables gives you a mental satisfaction that you do noy contribute to the Global warming.
Rudavin, that was really funny, I laughed and laughed.
Seriously the only problem with energy companies is their desire to make a lot of money. Solar energy will be a great way to make our electricity when we stop paying utilities to build solar collection “factories” and avoid buying energy at their tremendous profit. I tell you what I have a spring on my family farm. I will filter that water thru some sand in a box then put it into gallon bottles that cost me 12 cents each, and I will sell the gallon jugs full of water to you for $1.00 each. Hay you are paying more than that for bottled water in the restaurant today!
The best solution is an inexpensive solar array that substitutes for roofing on your house and perhaps garage also. and a battery pack to store the energy for overnight. Make most homes self sufficient for energy and disconnect from the electrical grid. If the weather permits, use wind turbines as well.
Stop trying to use historical designed appliances. Everything does not need to run on 120v. 60 Hz AC. DC works better for most applications. AC was used only to allow transformers to increase long distance transmission efficiency. Darn near everything runs on DC inside, even motors can be run better on it. Our houses need five or more times more insulation on the outside, and a lot of thermal mass inside to moderate the temperature. Our refrigerators and freezers need 3 to 5 times more external insulation. Our lighting needs revision to lower levels for general lighting and higher intensity only for task lighting when and where needed. Stop washing dark walls with light and use lighter colored paints instead. Windows and skylights are a better way to light living space, but they need to have two or three layers of glass not just one.
All these and more are well known technology, just design for Independence instead of higher profits for energy companies. America could lead the way…
Nice article. Moore’s law really doesn’t apply to everything. Take the automobile for instance: Ford model “T” was sold for around $500 when workers were making $5 a day. Now they make an average of $200 and they have to work the same 100 days to buy a decent car…one hundred years later. In my opinion, the Lithium-Ion batteries will have similar fate, as Moore’s law definetely doesn’t apply to electro-chemistry. My motto is: “The secrets of a successful clean vehicle project dwell in the stationary infrastructure rather than in the sophistication of energy storage devices”. Please chesk my web-pages draft:
https://sitecreator.directnic.com/websites/71779_info.ev-motion.com/3.html
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