Deutsche Bank Report on Electric Vehicles
I accidentally came across a high-priced Deutsche Bank report on the future of electric transportation, sold to hedge fund managers and other heavyweight investors willing to pay big bucks for solid, well-researched advice. When I opened the piece, I expected to find what I do in the mainstream news: the systematic downplay of the importance of EVs based largely on erroneous calculations on their environmental impact, news about possible shortages of lithium, demagoguery on the “socialist” agenda of the Obama administration, etc.
But this piece was much more in line with reality as I see it, predicting steep declines in the cost of batteries, and the consequent rapid adoption of EVs by a public anxious to cut its spending on gasoline. The predictions were far more bullish than what most people are reading, and suggested impressive EV sales volumes in the coming decade — even if federal and state government subsidies go away.
It certainly served as another reminder of the adage popular a century ago, “Don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers.”
This is some VERY good news, Craig.
I also heard some talk about the figure of 90% in relation to the portion of the globe’s rare earths that are in China, and are needed for these new techs, but also that a lot of the mining has been shut down in the US because of various cost and legislative barriers (and environmental protections, etc.). The gist of the commentary was that we may have undiscovered reserves of these materials domestically.
Have you heard or read anything on this?
No, but (not to sound cavalier) mineral shortages don’t scare me. We didn’t think there was oil down there either until we started looking for it.
Not only do I agree that there is likely to be “steep declines in the cost of batteries” but from what I’ve read is coming out of the labs I also think there’s likely to be a steep incline in their performance in the coming decade or two.
Yes, that’s correct. This is hotly debated, but I believe that battery technology will follow Moore’s Law (exponential decrease in cost and increase in functionality).