The Adoption of Electric Vehicles as Covered at the Advanced Auto Battery Consortium

I just came back from an afternoon of presentations at the Advanced Auto Battery Consortium in local Pasadena, CA, which I found quite interesting.

I don’t like to come off as overly skeptical or suspicious. But have you ever had the thought that the presenter you’re watching had formulated his agenda long ago, and has since been working like a dog to find data points to support it, while scrupulously avoiding obvious other data that may conflict?

It was clear that the first speaker wanted to point out that gasoline-powered cars are going to be around for a very long time. He pointed out that the cost of gas, when figured against the CPI (consumer price index), wasn’t really that expensive at all. A few minutes later, he left us with his big conclusion: people are generally risk-averse, and the EV adoption curve will be very slow. “Are people going to want to invest $30,000 in the automotive equivalent of Betamax video?” he intoned.

A momentary hush. Then, as calculated, the audience snickered and moaned.

It was indeed slick. I was impressed with his style. But personally, I’m not sure.

Yes, many consumers really are as ignorant and shortsighted as the speaker suggests. But look at the Nissan LEAF. After rebates, it’s $20,000. A roomy, full-featured pure electric whose first customers (and I know some of them personally) are getting more than the 100 miles per charge they were promised (in fact, up over 120 miles) and will never pull into another gas station. Aren’t a whole bunch of people going to find that compelling?

Let me ask you: Do you drive more than 120 miles per day?  OK, I won’t fault you if you get another gas-powered car. The speaker was certainly right; there will be plenty of them around for the foreseeable future. But for most of us, electric transportation makes a great deal of sense.