How Soon Will the Auto OEMs Offer Us Electric Vehicles in Production Quantities?

I was speaking earlier today with a friend whose current business life revolves around making sense of the auto OEMs’ embrace of electric vehicles. “If I were a cynic,” he began, “I wouldn’t see too much sincerity in what these folks are doing. I read what you wrote recently in the 2GreenEnergy blog about the BMW’s stalled electric vehicle plans, and it seems to echo what I see with the Mitsubishi i-MiEV, and the dozens of other players who claim that they’re running as fast as they can in this direction.”

My friend went on to make a couple of points:

1) There is nothing in it for the OEMs to rush into the EV space. From the standpoint of making and selling a profitable car, they all win from dragging this out as long as possible. The lifetime profit associated with a customer who purchases an EV is a small fraction compared to that of one who buys a gas-powered vehicle, since EVs last a relative eternity, and require virtually no maintenance and replacement parts.

2) From the standpoint of overall risk-management, the idea of the OEMs rushing to offer EVs is even more idiotic. Suppose you’re Mitsubishi, with the super-cool i-MiEV whose introduction into the US , for some reason (wink, wink) you keep postponing.  Why not put it off as long as possible? If Nissan wants to lead the way with its LEAF, fine. But what’s the incentive for you (or Ford, or anyone else) to be a leader here? Surely, you have no obligations to anyone but your shareholders; you’re not in the business for any other reason than immediate profits — and that means one word: delays.  Why not let the government, at the peril of those in charge, bring down the costs of batteries and charging infrastructure , and enter the market at your leisure?

I see my friend’s point here, and thus advise this spring’s graduates:  If you think you may want a job with the top auto OEMs so you can make the world a better place, you may want to look for work elsewhere.