Predicting the Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q7prldEBpo&w=425&h=349]
Here’s the presentation — including the audio track — that I made to the Electric Vehicle Summit at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles last week.
In essence, my point is that, though I’m bullish on the EV adoption curve, and I’m excited that for once, the good guys have a chance to win big, there are several open questions. In particular, there are so many variables here that have the potential to turn the world upside down, that it seems a bit foolish to me to think that predictions that go out 40 years have any real meaning.
Having said that, EVs are vitally necessary to the well being of all of us. Sustainability (generally) can only come from national security, which requires energy security, which in turn requires weaning ourselves off of oil. And there are other imperatives as well:
Health: We spend $250 billion a year dealing with the lung damage caused by the inhalation of the aromatics of fossil fuels.
Peak oil. We’re running out of oil.
Long-term environmental damage: Global climate change and ocean acidification.
Yet I grant that EV naysayers have some good points:
Drivers demand absolute freedom, and will not deal well with range anxiety.
Consumers are risk-averse; no one wants to invest $30,000 in the automotive equivalent of the Betamax.
Most (though not all) consumers refuse to pay extra for a benefit that accrues to everyone (eco-friendliness).
Even if this weren’t the case, there is widespread confusion and apathy about the true ecological benefits. I’m astonished by the effectiveness of the PR team that has convinced a significant number of Americans that global climate change does not represent an important problem. Morally, they’re certainly not very upright people, but I have to respect their effectiveness.
So, how to promote EVs in the US? I would consider appealing to a sense of patriotism, as there is nothing one can do that is better for the strength of our country as a whole than ceasing our reliance on oil. Simultaneously, this would:
Reduce the power, and thus the threat, of terrorism,
Remove a great deal of the motivation for war, and
Stop the outflow of US cash to the tune of $1 billion per day.
In any case, I hope you’ll enjoy the presentation.
No reason to compare yourself to Shai Aggasi. Your talk is a giving while his talk is a taking.
Hat off. I really liked your honest speech.
Thanks for the extremely kind words!
What are the REAL factors delaying the adoption of Electric Cars?
Electric Transportation is a strongly disruptive technology, which is the sole reason, why none of the big players wants to jump on the wagon. There is so much capital “tied up” in the production lines of petrol vehicles and the associated products, that if they would start a new vehicle platform it would make the shareholders nervous at the least, but more likely would seriously threaten the global economic viability of the entire industry with all involved major players – and that sounds pretty serious, since a good part of worldwide industrial revenue comes out of the automotive industry.
The Electric Utility Grid is no problem. Many people argue, that once the market for EV’s is booming, loads of new power stations will have to be built to satisfy all of those greedy little, “Electron – Eaters.” Well – the opposite is the case: Production of one liter of petrol consumes 2kWh of energy in the refinery operation – the total consumption is about 4kWh from well to wheel. Small ICE cars need about 5 liters/100km – totaling 20kWh of energy just to produce the fuel for 100km. And how many ICE cars do you know that need only 5 liters/100 km? Not that many! Already available EVs operate at 10 to 15kWh/100km and these are not especially set-up for high economy, low energy consumption. So, unless we start building EV’s with driving resistances like brick walls and the weight of a battle tank, we will be able to reduce the overall installed grid capacities in the long run. Charging over night helps balancing the grid in most scenarios – and that is completely without vehicle to grid considerations.
According to recent studies from England, Germany and France, range anxiety is only an issue in the first two weeks of ownership of an EV. For more than 97% of the users taking part in the testing, range restrictions where not relevant at the end of the survey.
Well understood, is the reluctance to accept new things. However, market penetration of EV’s will be governed by different factors than other “life-changing technologies” such as the light bulb or computers.
There was a change from using electric cars to petrol driven cars in the beginning of the 20th century. Well, that change happened within only a few years and the gas station infrastructure was not built first. Today most houses have an electric outlet or several, connected to the grid – infrastructure is there at your hands. To go back to the somewhat simpler technology we used before petrol cars should not really take longer than that. Once the show gets out on the road, we will be all driving electrics far faster than anybody anticipates.
Edited by: Dennis Miles, from a dissertation by: Mr. Roland Hamann of Germany. July, 2011.
Survival of a species is due to the ability to adapt. People in nations that adapt to change that favor life on the planet will survive. The Cosmos doesn’t care about Chrysler or Ford. They can go the way of the Dinosaurs, which we now know morphed into bird and chickens, or they can go the way of creatures who left no genetic contribution to the planet as we know it [at this point]
Love the talk. Where did you get the number that the oil industry employs 7,000 lobbyist? Im just curious and would like to see it substantiated. thanks so much.
Hmmm. I can’t find it, and I can’t remember where it came from, so I’ll stop using it. Here’s a very detailed treatment on the subject: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-and-Misinformation-The-Truth-about-Oil-Companies.html. See point #8 in the article.
EV is a good but very expensive think. There is alternative solution of using other ways of energy storage for cars – compressed air storage converted to energy in Arov static pressure engine (under development presently and crying presently for support in prototyping), not completely new idea but with a twist that new engine is 10 times more effective than presenntly used in Australia development. Allows small tank with compressed air to drive 1000 km.
Anyway, good article, but know where future is.