Natural Systems — What We Know and What We Don’t

It’s the birthday author Paul Theroux who said: “Tourists don’t know where they’ve been, and travelers don’t know where they’re going.”

If I may be permitted a liberty here, I would say that perhaps there’s an analogy here to where we’re going with respect to the environment. I.e., there are so many unknowns and complexities in the natural systems that surround us that it’s hard to know how to interpret the data to know exactly how much damage we’re causing to our environment, and what the impacts will ultimately be. For instance, as global temperatures rise – especially at the poles – will there be self-correction? Negative feedback loops (like melting permafrost causing the release of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO2)?

In truth, no one knows with any great precision. But does that give us license to continue our profligate ways? Not in the least. The last time the concentrations of CO2 and methane in our atmosphere rose to this level, the sea levels spiked too – to a point about 45 feet higher than they are today. Sea levels ARE rising as we speak. It’s hard to imagine that people who are alert and responsible will sit around and watch this happen.