Don’t Predict a Smooth Adoption of … Anything

For those who predict a smooth, predictable adoption of renewable energy, electric transportation, or anything at all, I enter into evidence this graphic showing the importance of social media in our world today.

As this is the day of Facebook’s IPO, it seems fitting to write a few words on the subject and ask: Did anyone forecast that social media would come to this position of cultural and financial dominance a few years ago? Of course not. Nor did anyone suggest that, even a few years ago, that there would be five billion cell phones on Earth.

It’s reminiscent of the Black Swan theory of Nassim Talab, i.e., that we consistently underestimate the impact of unlikely, unforeseeable events in our lives. Put another way, we think we know more about what our future will look like than we actually do. “Epistemic arrogance,” as the intellectuals call it.

So what does that mean about the world of the future 30 years hence? Only that it’s unknowable.

I suppose the only thing we can say about the subject is that it depends a great deal upon you and me and what we do here and now. Yet once more, I’m reminded of the 20th Century anthropologist Margaret Mead, who said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”

And as always, my thanks to you for being one of those thoughtful, committed citizens.