Migration to Renewable Energy
2GreenEnergy supporter Don Harmon of LiFeBATT, Inc. just sent me this article about the piece that came out of the University of Delaware recently, presenting the possibility of a complete migration to renewable energy by 2030. The discussion that follows is interesting, i.e., the conversation between the supporters and nay-sayers.
A few observations:
• I don’t believe that those who object to solar and wind based on use of land are standing on solid ground. As one commenter calculated (and I’ve done elsewhere), given the efficiencies and capacity factors, we need 0.011% of the land mass of the U.S. to provide us the power we need. I agree that we can somehow spare that, in exchange for an end to fossil fuels.
• I find credible the analogies to the year 1900, a time in which cars would “never” replace horses, and heavier-than-air flight was “physically impossible.”
• Personally, I have no doubt that we’ll get to some combination of clean energy sources that will replace fossil fuels (though 2030 appears optimistic). As usual, the questions are:
In the process, how much damage will we have done? and Who’s going to make a buck?
With you on all of that. We will likely be quite talented in renewables and nuclear and technologies that bring us conservation with little to no downside. Travel is a bit more iffy. We might end up like back in the 60’s when it was a big deal to travel internationally. Unfortunately, the results of climate change will have become a ‘done deal’ in the process.
Unfortunately, there is a great deal of fossil fuel energy already locked into the system – with new generating plants still being built. These are designed for probably 25 to 30 years of use so will still be in use in 2030. The same goes for aeroplanes, trucks, and ships.
I could see there being little or no new production of new fossil fuel power plant by 2030 – but that still leaves a number of years of continuing use of the existing stock. Possibly these generators could be set to run partly on biomass / bio-gas, but there is unlikely to be sufficient to feed all the capacity. The same applies to hybridising with solar thermal (switching between fuel and solar heat for steam generation).
Possibly the vehicles could be adapted to run on synthesised fuels (methanol, ammonia, or hydrogen) from remote renewable power generation sites, but it is in my view unlikely that the whole process globally will go over by to renewables and nuclear 2030.