The Adoption Curve for Electric Vehicles
Here’s an article that presents some specious logic associated with electric vehicle adoption. In particular, the greening of conventional vehicles militates away from, not towards, the adoption of EVs; the payback in fuel consumption for an EV is far more attractive when the car one’s replacing gets 25 MPG than 60 MPG.
Having said this, I do see a day when the case for electric transportation becomes overwhelming, both for the individual and for society. Imagine, if you will, a time in which:
• EV range issues will have all but disappeared, i.e., ranges of 300 miles have been achieved at a reasonable cost. Other costs have fallen as well, due to economies of scale and advancements in technology.
• In addition to home and the workplace, “opportunity charging” locations are springing up, including fast-charging locations. (Note that this is already happening; see Tesla’s project for travelers.)
• Society decides to “internalize the externalities” of gasoline, i.e., create a landscape in which we pay the true costs of fossil fuel consumption, including the damage to our environment and our lungs — and, dare I say it? — the use of our military to provide access to oil. (While this is anything but a slam dunk, it’s possible; in fact, I argue that it’s becoming more probable every year as more people start to see the horrific impact that fossil fuels are creating on our planet.)
• EVs become fairly innocuous in terms of their impact on the grid. This is not too hard to imagine, by the way. Coal-fired power plants are steadily being retired, starting with the oldest, i.e., dirtiest. I’d hate to see it, but if we really are building more nuclear power plants, that’s 24/7 base-load, and, since EVs are largely charged at night with off-peak power, this is helpful to the case. EVs also create a home for wind energy that is currently curtailed or sold at negative prices.
• The presence of EVs encourages all manner of other futuristic concepts: distributed generation (e.g., mid-sized wind), as well as smart-grid, including vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.
Again, this is “down the road” thinking, but not too hard to envision.
P.S. (written a few days later)
When I wrote above that, “The greening of conventional vehicles militates away from, not towards, the adoption of EVs; the payback in fuel consumption for an EV is far more attractive when the car one’s replacing gets 25 MPG than 60 MPG,” I knew I’d horrify some people. Here’s one such response:
I was horrified to see a kind of fundamentalism that exists on the issue of EV and smart grid developments, that people would not appreciate upgrading from conventional vehicles to hybrids; or the attraction or price advantage or payback would not be justified for going towards EVs. … It almost angered me to the point of thinking of jumping out of the window. Such infighting cannot take us to a sustainable future.
While I understand such thinking, I suggest a sense of pragmatism in the face of the real world. I don’t see this as infighting; I see it as reality. “Solutions” to our problems that are not economically attractive are not solutions at all.
Even if you view that as bad news, here’s the good news: cleantech in all its forms: renewable energy, electric transportation, energy efficiency and smart-grid, etc. – all carry with them extremely powerful economic arguments that are becoming clearer and more forceful with every passing day. Yes, we have some political hurdles we need to cross, but the world is very close to jumping into cleantech with both feet.
If you remain unconvinced, here’s a tiny proof-point. When I attend the Renewable Energy Finance Forum twice a year, I don’t see a few tiny venture capitalists wringing their hands about the prospect of making investments of a few million dollars. I see Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and CitiGroup — real financial institutions, as well as some very, very well-funded venture capitalists and equity investors that are literally putting up billions of dollars. This really is happening.
There. I hope I’ve talked my reader down from his window ledge.
If the price of an all electric car can get anywhere near the price of a fossil fuel car with the right range and battery durability, and adequate charging infrastructure, then it becomes the obvious choice as both fuel and servicing costs are lower.
The Nissan Leaf for example is rated at 4 miles per kWh which in the UK would cost around £0.03 per mile in “fuel” around $0.045. A gasoline fired car doing 40 miles per UK gallon would cost around £0.16 or $0.24 per mile in fuel at UK prices (nearly 6 times more expensive). I am not sure of the US ratio, however the fuel aspect would certainly offer significant savings.
For the moment however batteries for electric vehicles are expensive and likely to need replacement during the car’s lifetime. There is also the question of recycling, which I understand is difficult for Lithium based batteries. (not good with a limited lithium supply). Possibly ambient temperature Sodium or Potassium based battery technologies will emerge eliminating the need for lithium which is relatively rare.
Although it is impossible to know for certain what automotive technologies will be used in the future, electric cars certainly are a possibility. If there were large numbers of electric cars each having batteries which could withstand a large number of deep discharge and recharge cycles, they could be used to mitigate to a significant degree the intermittency problems of renewable power sources. Also, when clean CO2-free power sources are used, which should include nuclear power, electric cars will be non-polluting.
Even though many of our current power sources are dirty, it makes sense to develop electric car technology now, including building recharging stations. One cannot expect the technology to be developed unless people buy electric cars.
Battery chemistry gets better every year. It is already good enough for the urban EV which is, by far and away, the primary use case. I can’t speak for the Leaf issues specifically, but anyone involved in energy dense batteries knows that active management of them is critical – temperature , high and low SOC points, rate of charge, etc. When well managed, they have no trouble with the 8 to 10 year life span we expect. Also note that they might not be recycled but rather more economically re-purposed into stationary applications. A battery at 50-70% capacity still has uses.
I don’t see range being the issue. Culture is the issue – witness the SUV craze if you thought otherwise. Its quite straight forward to prove that its more economic to rent a long distance vehicle for those times you need it, rather than own it. Obviously speaking to the prevailing case here. So, even if you don’t want to be a 2 car family, EVs are still practical.
F-150 is one of the most popular vehicles in america. The vast majority are used for commuting to work with a single rider. The argument is that every once in a while we drive to a big box store and bring home a load of concrete, metaphorically speaking. Complete nonsense in exactly the same sense that one bought an 8 seat Navigator / Hummer / whatever for carrying a team of kids once a month. Americans have very close to zero analytic capability when making their life decisions.
Cost-wise, its true that we are in the early adopter phase. That will change. Burning fossil fuels for personal transportation simply has no long term viability if you care about the long term disposition of the planet.
Finally, anyone motivated strictly by the spread sheet is shopping Honda Fit and other cars of that class and I bow to your sticking to the math.
You make some great points here as always, especially that car-shopping is not based on math, but rather on culture and self-perception. However, I predict that EV-adoption will, in fact, become a cultural phenomenon as soon as the consumer value proposition becomes a bit more favorable — the most important components of which are price and range.
One can rent a truck from Home Depot by the hour and it costs only a fraction as much as the additional cost of driving a truck daily when a car would do the job.
The greening of conventional vehicles militates away from, not towards, the adoption of EVs; (the payback in fuel consumption for an EV is far more attractive when the car one’s replacing gets 25 MPG than 60 MPG). I am Horrified to see a kind of fundamentalism that exist on the Issue of EV and smart grid developments, that they would not appreciate upgrading of conventional vehicles to Hybrids; or the attraction or price advantage or Payback would not be justified for going towards EVs. ..and almost angered me to think of jumping out of the window. Such infighting can not take us to a sustainable future, which I always said lay on the side of Conservation than Methods, as the Global warming would still be there with complete elimination of fossil fuel and Full nuclear grid implementation; because Any New energy produced on earth even if completely clean still adds to the warming of the planet.
The life cycle cost of a car should be printed on the window sticker like the mpg’s are so a better decision can be made for purchasing the transportation.
There is also the introduction of fast capacitors into the market this year, these will help alleviate the issues of recycling, weight, and charging time.
To truly accelerate clean transportation adoption, WE THE PEOPLE should urge our lawmakers to have car companies that were helped with taxpayer money (and are partially owned by we the people) to produce an electric hybrid like the volt, but small to the point of carrying 2 people & 200 pounds of payload, AND be able to charge on a normal 220 outlet.
America is crying out for a small, highly efficient vehicle like this and year after year we get big cars that only BARELY meet mpg requirements. This kind of car is what’s needed to charge off of a home Photovoltaic system for true independence.
That kind of car surely would be suitable as a SECOND car for many people who have two cars.
And one more thing, we need to step down the deduction for mileage on Fossil Fuel travel, writing off your addition to a global problem should not be rewarded with tax payer monies.
It is good to see thinking outside of the square, electric is not the only answer:
Air Hybrid
Talking about Air hybrid (not actually part of my plan originally) has Impressed me for trying out especially on Bigger or Commercial Vehicles, that already has a mini compressor and more tanks can be easily added (although of substantially less pressure); Enough to Try out a Quick hybrid that can be conceived on a PI diagram in few days and actually tried out in One or Two months. My plan would involve Fixing Air motor (with gears) on the back of a Differential (isn’t it so easy) Powered by a set of Air Tanks, a Large storage acting as battery bank and a smaller acting as Ultra capacitor. The smaller tank would keep charging /discharging with a kind of two way Valve employed on air suspension (which can then move on to a Variable valve or Gas knob) The Idea is to Gather as much regenerative energy as possible to prove Newton (first law) right. These kinds can then be put on the existing vehicles and can greatly pull down growing Emissions from a Largest sector (in developing countries at least – especially starting smoke of diesel which is a proven weakness). Another alternative to Battery technology (which is very efficient and must not be out of sight for smaller vehicles) is Employing a kind of Flywheel (you already have a Spare-wheel hanging on the rear) Motor that has to absorb the energy from already popular Retarders on Propeller shaft to assist the Braking. All this and one day we can confidently call Sir Newton to look at our creation. ..but I want somebody to start working on this and Post the Good news. (and once we have done this can move on to 2nd law for a perfect IVT and a Magic)
In regards to an air hybrid, there is a handy source of heat to boost the pressure of stored air captured during regenerative breaking – the exhaust. Adding this extra heat will push the efficiency significantly higher. Alternatively, the stored compressed air could be used as a kind of stored air supercharger allowing a greater quantity of fuel air mix to go through the engine during acceleration and making id possible for a smaller engine to be used.
See! how things started to evolve in collaborative power of internet, we have two of Valuable insights on air hybrid (and Last thing for anyone to ever imagine Exhaust heat recovery in a Truck made possible – actually any heat Radiator, Exhaust, Brake pad adds to the surrounding and Global Warming). Drawing on similarities of using Air power for one segment of vehicles, we could probably try using Hydraulic power for smaller mini truck / SUV class which does not have Air facility but has hydraulic pump for power steering (that is running Idle! most of the time) and Hydraulic motors or pumps have been extensively used in cranes and dumpers and we would only need something to hold or store Hydraulic pressures and there are accumulators readily available for that. So next time for that great pickup or accelerations of those Diesel SUVs, the engines would not be smoking, added to it a great mileage and Green SUVs. Now let everyone agree to not talk about problems ..but Ideas and Solutions.
When we can get Electric car conversion kits are available from small vendors for around $4000 (Example: http://www.grassrootsev.com/cpacks.htm ) , why electric cars from major car manufacturers are so over priced? In order to have a widespread adoption of electric cars, they have to be affordable for middle class people.
MORNING CRAIG,
THE ADOPTION CURVE ARTICLE IS A GOOD ONE.POINT WELL MADE INDEED.
I COME FROM THE DEVELOPING WORLD INDIA WHERE THE FIGURES ARE MUCH LESS FOR A DAILY COMMUTE AND IN MY OPINION EVs are more economicaly suited for developing nations
regards
The Electrics are leading the way with Tesla. They have temperature control so their batteries may last the life of the vehicle. The FORD Focus EV and even the new smaller GM Spark have this important battery feature.
Then add in V2G Vehicle to GRID and you have a vehicle that pays for itself. They already have those features for the LEAF and MiEV in Japan. As a back up it’s great. As a power regulator just selling and receiving a few KwH’s tickles the batteries and pays. Read V2G-101.com for details. It’s get better each day.
Today was my greatest day (after venturing in to making my own small car more out of necessity! than curiosity some 14 years back, eventually showcasing the technology to show how to get more out of less power with a Combination Gearbox with built-in energy storage as prototype – actually too early to find a necessity or attraction at Auto expo 2000 Delhi) that after so much of Noise at Home and elsewhere; I got an upgrade from the Comment Section to inclusion of my words in to the Main Article. Thank you Craig.
Change is sexy, let’s slip into something with a tiny foot print… that doesn’t smell and has batteries! and run a long time… wow, I’m feeling all charged up… I think a comedian needs to help bring about this evolution talking to the population in a language beyond green…maybe Pink!
Ha! You have a good point that comedy can play a role in telling the story. A lot of this stuff really would be funny — if it weren’t so tragic.
I encourage supporters of EVs, for which I am one, to consider the rate of adoption. The means by which we will most benefit from EVs will be when we can charge the cars (“electrify” if you will) where the creation of that charging does not involve pollution or green house gases in the process. It is worth considering that nuclear energy is the most logical choice of energy to use when charging batteries otherwise widespread adoption may never happen. I hate to sound gloomy but AGW is still my biggest objection to leaving Nuclear energy off the list of the renewables. Wisconsin is trying to pass a bill that allows Nuclear plants to be classified as renewable. I think this needs to be our new rant. Let nuclear be classified as renewable.
Here’s a piece I wrote on the subject: http://2greenenergy.com/us-renewable-portfolio-standard/6598/. Yes. Invite them to the party; there is nothing to lose.