Solar Industry Bounces Back

Here’s an extremely bullish report on the future of the solar industry from Deutsche Bank, suggesting that the PV industry will be able to stand and grow solely on its own (without government support) by 2014.  Such growth, in the face of continuing price declines in modules and balance-of-system will soon put solar at grid-parity, the point at which an incremental megawatt of solar comes at the same price as a megawatt from other forms of electricity generation in the region. 

Of course, “grid-parity” is a mercurial concept.  So much depends on the region of the world in question; we’re already at grid-parity in certain nations whose energy pricing is high and competitive resources are low. 

In any case, this extremely upbeat report is at odds with the viewpoints of Esplanade Capital’s Shawn Kravetz, whom I interviewed for our recent 2GreenEnergy.com webinar on the solar industry, during which he expressed cautious optimism, as certain factors begin to revert from the precipitous decline the industry has experienced of late.   Of course, Shawn is conservative in the extreme.  To quote what he told me when I challenged him on a certain issue, “I get paid to be pessimistic.”