Biofuels and Electric Transportation
Glenn Doty’s calculations in the comment on my piece on biofuels and electric transportation compare the costs of energy from solar PV and bioethanol. This is a very good way of looking at the subject. I thank Glenn, as always, for his thoughtful note.
Glenn points out that the PV “farmer” is losing about 19.7% on total revenue. That’s not good. But let me bring four things to his and your attention:
• The installed cost per watt on large systems is currently below the $3.50 he quotes; I’ve seen figures under $3 currently, and they’re still falling.
• Simultaneously, other important parameters are also improving.
• We just happen to be talking about PV; wind is far more cost-competitive.
• Somewhere, somehow, someone is going to put a price on carbon and this will change the calculus here enormously. They’re also going to have something to say about land-use competing with food, with water use causing shortages, with run-off from fertilizers ruining our waterways, etc.
In fact, it’s my fondest hope that we develop the political will-power to “price these things in.” But even if we don’t, there are still good people who will pay a bit extra so as to minimize their impact on the environment around them.
Perhaps you could clarify what you mean by “installed price per watt.”
PV systems do not provide continuous power. Is the installed price per watt the average power delivered over an extended period of time, such as months, or is it the peak power delivered at high noon during the longest day of the year?
I appreciate your interest in the subject, and I’ve noted your dozens of other comments on the subject of solar’s and wind’s intermittency. I would ask you to Google the subject and learn a bit more about it.
The world of renewable energy is acutely aware that the sun does not shine at night and the wind does not blow all the time; the 2.3 million of us (http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5821) who work in this industry, one of the world’s fastest-growing, are pretty-much on top key data points like those. Likewise, the people who are in the process of investing $7 trillion into the industry between 2000 and 2030 (www.newenergyfinance.com/WhitePapers/download/53) didn’t manage to amass that fortune without some level of grasp on the subject either.
Sorry for the sarcasm, but seriously, if you Google “PV installed cost per watt,” you’ll get an answer to your question — and a ton more — immediately.
To summarize a very complicated discussion, intermittency does not mean that renewables have no value, but it does mean that technology needs to be brought to bear if we are to push these sources into much higher proportions of the overall grid-mix.
I appreciate your concern, but, as they say, “We’ve got this.”
Craig,
I’m a renewable energy advocate. I know that wind is cheaper than solar. Wind is actually cost effective.
I also know that emission controls will eventually level the playing field.
But I was responding to a piece in which you stated that solar energy was competitive with biofuels, and I thought it was worth breaking the pricing down to show you how far we still have to go.
BTW, I haven’t seen a single PV farm built for less than $3.50/W. I’ve seen some projections, but once the deals are signed and construction is complete I haven’t seen one that has been made for less than $3.50/W. Are you sure that a lower number isn’t resulting from some state, local, or federal stimulus being added in (my cost breakdown didn’t include subsidies for bio or solar)?
I’d appreciate links if you have them.
Glenn: Please see http://newscenter.lbl.gov/news-releases/2011/09/15/tracking-the-sun-iv/. Lawrence Berkeley Labs mentions $2.90.
Ah. I see.
They’ve released Tracking the Sun V (November).
http://emp.lbl.gov/publications/tracking-sun-v-historical-summary-installed-price-photovoltaics-united-states-1998-2011
The difference in the numbers is whether they are considering dedicated solar farms for grid output, or existing industrial facilities which have their own land and are already grid-tied.
I was considering only the former. Costs go up a bit when you have to patch in several MW into the grid. But the point is moot, I’ll concede that some few installations have seen lower costs due to savings from pre-existing capital.
I will state that even in V (data through Dec 2011) the average price is $3.9/W for ground-mounted systems and $4/W for rooftop.
I understand. We’ll see where this goes from here.