More Discussion on the Old “Limits to Growth” Subject
Reader “Alan” writes:
I suggest you read Brian Czech’s “Supply Shock” on the thermodynamics of why we can’t grow or profit our way out of our onrushing date with extinction. Naomi Klein’s “This Changes Everything” is another essential book to read.
Thank you, Alan. I’m very familiar with Naomi Klein, less so with Brian Czech, though I did just watch his video in which he summarizes his book.
To be honest, I’m not at all compelled by this. It’s fine to be a fan of Donella Meadows and the other “limits to growth” theorists over the last half century, but I’m not impressed with people who simply restate those ideas without adding any new proof or other forms of value on top of them.
I know lots of people, e.g., Nate Hagens, who support this idea in a far more credible and academically rigorous way–and even that doesn’t have me convinced.
I don’t carry the credentials (i.e., a PhD) like these people do, but I see no reason to disbelieve the counter arguments, i.e., that it is possible for humankind to build a “third industrial revolution” around cleantech.
Craig,
I’m not familiar with either Brian Czech or Nate Hagens… so a little more of a summary of the theory might be useful here. But it sounds like these are just more incarnations of the ghost of Malthus.
The problem with neo-Malthusian thought is that it is invariably correct… but the very fact that it is correct then serves to invalidate it.
Peak oil is a powerful teaching example here: Peak oil was absolutely true: Hubbert was correct. We saw conventional oil decline in North America starting in the 70’s, and we saw global conventional oil peak some time around 2005. But the fact of that peak lead IMMEDIATELY to an economic supply/demand forcing which increased the price of oil… Once the price of oil got high enough, NGL condensate production, biofuels refining, GTL, CTL, fracking, tar sands, ultra-deep-drilling, and deep-water drilling all became economically advantageous and all of these production methods started to receive rapid investment. Now, 9 years after the peak of conventional oil, global supply has increased more than 10% from the 2005 levels, and our production growth has outstripped global economic demand and led to another oil market crash (albeit still at a much higher price point than pre-2005).
The same goes for everything – a global shortage in food is immediately followed by heavy investment in farming… Malthus was right until he was wrong….
The same cycle will likely play itself out in renewable energy development, Every cycle of global tightening will result in a higher price point in which more alternative energy platforms will be able to comfortably compete – and investment will pour in out of global need… and there will again be enough.
If I’m off base on the subject, feel free to fill in more details about Brian Czech or Nate Hagens’ prophesy of doom.
🙂
Craig,
You had posted something further on this issue… and I replied. Now your root post and my reply have been removed.
This is the first instance that I’ve seen where you have removed an entire post.
What happened?
Sorry. My mistake. It’s back now.