From Guest Blogger Curt Robbins: On the Green Horizon — Toyota Mirai vs. Chevy Bolt

Anytime you take two hot topics, like green technology and automobiles, Americans are going to take note. We love our cars, regardless of their environmental impact—and probably always will. Thankfully, the automobile is finally beginning to evolve. It’s becoming more sustainable, cleaner, and certainly more efficient. It’s even beginning to cost significantly less to fuel and maintain.

For progressive-minded individuals who want to have their car and drive it, too, it’s an exciting time. The emergence of no-emission, guilt-free driving has led to the beginning of a renaissance of the American love affair with the automobile. Sporty cars like the Tesla Roadster and Model S are only the beginning. Despite their other great attributes, relatively boring vehicles like the Toyota Prius won’t overwhelmingly populate the automotive landscape of the future.

New Iterations

New iterations of green cars from brands like Chevrolet, Toyota, and Nissan—incorporating a variety of technologies to power drivetrains, like lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells—have begun to enter the market and are vying for the dollars of middle class consumers.

Two examples of the quickly evolving vehicular landscape are the forthcoming Toyota Mirai, which debuts in very limited numbers in California in late 2015, and the Chevy Bolt, which is slated to be available in late 2016. Both vehicles will feature zero emissions (except for a miniscule amount of water, in the case of the Mirai) and employ electrical current to spin their wheels. Both will also completely lack an internal combustion engine (unlike Chevy’s current hybrid approach, the Volt).

However, that’s pretty much where the similarity ends. The two largest car companies in the world are taking decidedly different approaches to the challenge of providing clean, affordable transportation to their customers.

Toyota Mirai = Hydrogen

The Toyota Mirai is categorized as a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV), or—as Toyota labels it—simply a Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV). It went on sale in Japan in December 2014 and will become available in California and Europe in September. Unfortunately for fans of hydrogen tech, it will be available in very limited numbers. Only 200 units will be delivered to Southern California by the end of 2015. Toyota projects that as few as 3,000 units will be on American roads by the close of 2017 (mostly on the West and Northeast Coasts).

In a nation where 16.5 million cars are sold annually, it would be easy to declare the Mirai an elaborate media stunt. One of my friends, a NASA project scientist and electric car owner, believes the adoption of hydrogen to power cars may be Japan’s way of staying away from grid-delivered electricity derived from nuclear power following the 2011 Fukushima disaster. It’s certainly a viable theory.

Understanding Hydrogen Tech

Hydrogen-powered vehicles actually use electricity, not hydrogen, as their power source—just like a fully electric vehicle. However, instead of taking electricity that’s generated somewhere outside the car (at a power plant connected to the grid), fuel cell cars utilize hydrogen and oxygen, on board the vehicle, to internally generate the electricity that powers them.

Because a hydrogen vehicle is continually producing electricity, it features a much smaller battery than an all-electric car (which, like a pig at a trough, must cram as much electricity into its battery from the power grid as possible). Because batteries are very heavy, this makes fuel cell cars lighter (the Mirai actually leverages the nickel-metal hydride battery from the Prius). However, this weight savings is typically offset by the reinforced tanks necessary to store the highly pressurized hydrogen (stored at 10,000 psi). Mirai’s use of layered plastic and carbon fiber tanks, instead of steel, helps make the vehicle more efficient.

This hydrogen mechanism is used to generate the electricity that powers an AC motor, which itself is connected to a reduction gear (there’s no conventional transmission). This part of the equation is almost identical to how an all-electric car achieves this feat.

The hydrogen fuel cell stack, where the magic occurs, is a device that incorporates several “filtering” layers (membranes) and effectively splits the hydrogen molecules into protons and electrons. The protons (ions) are capable of traveling through the “stack” of fuel cell membranes. The electrons, however, cannot permeate the stack of membranes, and therefore must travel around it. It’s this “detour” path of the electron flow that generates the electricity that ultimately powers hydrogen vehicles. Basically, the fuel cell generates electricity by oxidizing the hydrogen (not burning it, a theoretically possible—but considerably more crude—option).

Chevy Bolt = All Electric

General Motors on January 12 officially announced the 2017 Chevy Bolt, which—like the Tesla Model S and Nissan LEAF—is an all-electric vehicle featuring a relatively large battery (considerably larger than that found in a hydrogen-powered car). Categorically, the Bolt is an Electric Vehicle, or EV (sometimes called a Battery Electric Vehicle, or BEV). According to Road & Track, “The styling is definitely evocative of the [BMW] i3—which is to say, a refrigerator on wheels.”

Electric tech is considerably more straightforward than that of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Basically, electricity from the power grid is delivered to the vehicle via a plug (just like a laptop computer or toaster), where it is stored in a large lithium-ion battery. The power from the battery then propels the vehicle in an almost identical fashion to the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, by traveling to an AC induction motor and a reduction gear before reaching the driveshaft and wheels.

Pros & Cons

Refueling: In terms of the time required to refuel, the Mirai will win hands down, taking only three to five minutes to fully refill its hydrogen tanks (almost identical to a conventional car featuring an internal combustion engine powered by gasoline).

The Bolt, by contrast, will measure its battery’s recharge time in hours. It should be noted that the charging time of an EV battery can be significantly reduced using advanced charging options, like dedicated public recharging stations (which feature higher voltage) or special adapters intended for one’s home. Charging time is also significantly reduced if homeowners install a 240-volt power outlet in their garage, instead of a default 120-volt outlet (necessary only in the U.S.; 240-volt power is standard in the UK and Europe).

Refueling Locations: This is a category where the Bolt will clearly defeat the Mirai. According to Businessweek, “…a mass market for fuel-cell cars will require big investments in hydrogen fueling stations that may not be forthcoming.” In fact, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, there are currently only 13 hydrogen fueling stations in the United States. Nine of these are in the Los Angeles area, one is in San Francisco, one in Sacramento (about two hours northeast of San Fran), and one each in Wallingford, CT and Columbia, SC.

13 hydrogen fueling stations in a nation where 300+ million vehicles currently roam the roads is nothing. The lack of hydrogen fueling stations in the U.S. is currently the biggest shortcoming of this tech, regardless of its potential green qualities or sustainability.

Driving Range: Driving range is one of the chief advantages of hydrogen vehicles over their EV siblings. The Chevy Bolt is projected to deliver a range of 200 miles, bested by nearly 50 percent by the Mirai’s 300 mile capability (the Nissan LEAF, currently the best-selling EV of all time, delivers only about 84 miles per charge). However, due to the lack of hydrogen refueling stations, this range can’t be realized. If you lived in Los Angeles, for example, you couldn’t drive east 300 miles, refuel, and then drive the 300 miles west, to return home. Instead, a 300-mile range would afford you only about 140 miles away from one of the few refueling stations before you were forced to return.

Also, the Mirai’s superior driving range is largely negated not only by the dearth of hydrogen refueling stations, but also the fact that a Bolt can be recharged at one’s home or office. In theory, the Mirai wins on range. However, in the current real world, its practical range is limited to areas no more than 150 miles from the nearest hydrogen fueling station.

Vehicle Cost: At nearly $60,000, the Mirai is exceptionally expensive, especially considering that it sports a luxury and trim level roughly equal to a high-end Camry (although, because there’s no engine, it’s much quieter) and seats only four. In fact, the base price of the Mirai is $4,000 more than that of the 2015 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray. Considering that many consumers aren’t overly concerned with emission issues and the environment, the Mirai will be a hard sell.

The Bolt is roughly half the price at $30,000. However, according to Chevrolet, this is after tax incentives, which may—or may not—still be around when the Bolt becomes available. Regardless, the Bolt will be a much better value than the Mirai. It could be argued that the Mirai will fail based simply on its high acquisition cost and relatively poor value (personally, I’d go for the $54,000 Corvette Stingray instead).

Fuel Cost: This is another area where the Bolt will easily beat the Mirai. Depending on an owner’s location in the United States and the time of day during which recharging occurs (peak vs. off-peak), recharging the Bolt’s battery will cost between $4 and $10 (to deliver 200 miles of range). This is a far cry from the $50 to refill the Mirai’s hydrogen tanks (which, in fairness, deliver a 300 mile range). Thus, a range-adjusted comparison yields $6-15 for the Bolt and $50 for the Mirai. The Mirai will cost three to eight times more to fuel; not trivial, especially over time and if you drive a lot. In fact, the more you drive, the greater the discrepancy between the Mirai and the Bolt in terms of fuel cost.

Getting It In the End

In the end, Chevy’s all-electric Bolt will have several distinct advantages over the Toyota Mirai. It will cost half as much and will be capable of being recharged in literally millions of locations (including the privacy and safety of your garage or office). The Mirai? 13 refueling locations—most of which are clustered around Los Angeles. This is a non-starter for folks anywhere but the L.A. area, downtown San Francisco or Sacramento, or those who happen to live or work near the lone hydrogen stations in South Carolina or Connecticut.

Granted, the Bolt’s econobox hatchback design isn’t nearly as sexy as the Mirai, and Chevy lost its opportunity to seat five instead of four. Of course, currently, the Bolt is officially a concept vehicle, not a production design. Seating capacity and other characteristics may easily change before it becomes available in late 2016. But Americans like big vehicles. While certainly larger, the Bolt looks more like a Toyota Yaris on steroids than a competitor to the Mirai or the future Tesla Model 3 (due in 2017). This, I believe, will hurt mainstream sales.

Because of chiefly two things, I think the Mirai will get crushed in the American market. First, fuel costs equal to or higher than gasoline will push away all but the most diehard hydrogen or sustainable energy fans. This, combined with the gross lack of hydrogen fueling stations, will conspire to destroy the Mirai’s chances of making it in the United States. General Motors’ Bolt, clearly superior in terms of cost, operational economy, and refueling convenience, will readily defeat Toyota’s FCV offering (although, due to its econobox hatchback styling, it might not fare well against the forthcoming Tesla Model 3 or even a redesigned Nissan LEAF).

But Toyota isn’t comprised of stupid engineers, strategists, and marketing executives. Maybe, as some experts believe, the company is really offering the Mirai only to appease the CARB (California Air Resources Board) mandate and the U.S. government’s CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards so it can continue to sell its other gas-guzzling trucks, SUVs, and sedans into the country’s largest car market: California.

[In my next blog post, I’ll take a “well-to-wheels,” or full energy lifecycle, approach to comparing hydrogen fuel cell and fully electric vehicles to illustrate their relative environmental impacts.]

Curt Robbins is author of Understanding Personal Data Security and other books for Amazon Kindle. You can follow him on Twitter at @CurtRobbins and view his photos on Flickr.