Neither You Nor I Know What the Future of the Energy Industry Looks Like
Don’t we all chuckle to ourselves when we hear people explain what the energy industry is going to be like in the year 2100? Our world changes so fast today—and that rate of change is only accelerating—that it makes very little sense to speculate on what flavor of renewable energy will be in vogue 85 years hence—or what flavor of anything else will define the world at that time: the state of the art in medicine, information technology, warfare, geopolitics, life elongation, space migration, etc.
We’ve all seen that our lives, individually and collectively, take radical and unforeseeable twists. In particular, the things that worry us most never happen, and the things that cause us the most pain totally blindside us.
I was reminded of this by the video linked here that a friend sent me. This idiot, doing something that would have killed 999 people out of every 1000, walked away. At the very same moment somewhere else on Earth, a thoughtful and kind human being was diagnosed with terminal cancer. Yet somehow, we all feel we need to make sense of a nonsensical world.
I certainly admire those who live their lives emulating the loving character of Christ; I’ve often written about the Quakers and their staunch position on nonviolence, loving their enemies, and so forth, all of which are based on the notion that we’re all equal in the sight of God. In fact, this piece I wrote on William Penn somehow wound up in my old school’s quarterly magazine and helped me reconnect with many old friends; I’m very grateful for that.
At the same time, we need to think about what people like mathematician, logician, and philosopher Bertrand Russell said on the subject, and enable this to stimulate our thinking as well. Here’s an excerpt from a lecture he gave in 1924:
We want to stand upon our own feet and look fair and square at the world — its good facts, its bad facts, its beauties, and its ugliness; see the world as it is and be not afraid of it. Conquer the world by intelligence and not merely by being slavishly subdued by the terror that comes from it. The whole conception of God is a conception derived from the ancient Oriental despotisms. It is a conception quite unworthy of free men. When you hear people in church debasing themselves and saying that they are miserable sinners, and all the rest of it, it seems contemptible and not worthy of self-respecting human beings. We ought to stand up and look the world frankly in the face. We ought to make the best we can of the world, and if it is not so good as we wish, after all it will still be better than what these others have made of it in all these ages. A good world needs knowledge, kindliness, and courage; it does not need a regretful hankering after the past or a fettering of the free intelligence by the words uttered long ago by ignorant men. It needs a fearless outlook and a free intelligence. It needs hope for the future, not looking back all the time toward a past that is dead, which we trust will be far surpassed by the future that our intelligence can create.
As always, I take no stand on the subject of religion. But I do suggest that we tend to fritter away a great deal of time wondering what God’s plan for us could possibly be, given all the frantic chatter and chaotic nonsense in the world around us. It comes at the expense of our working on the things that matter most: living lives of compassion, the best way we can according to our own lights, and trying to make the world a better place in the blink of an eye while we’re here on Earth.
the fact is neither you nor I nor any of the weather forecasters have any idea of what the weather will be like in 80 yrs either. Their models have proved they haven’t a clue.
Oh, I don’t think you’re right there. I’ve spent some time with this guy: http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/, and I’m quite convinced that the models that he and his people have developed are very accurate.
From Bertrand Russell’s quotation:
“When you hear people in church debasing themselves and saying that they are miserable sinners, and all the rest of it, it seems contemptible and not worthy of self-respecting human beings.”
That sort of thing is much less common than it was in 1924 When Russell wrote that. For example, in the Prayer of Humble Access in the previous Episcopal Book of Common Prayer, there was the phrase “and there is no health in us.”. That is no longer there.
It is good to recognize one’s failures and imperfections, but there should be a reasonable balance.
If people convince themselves that they are basically evil and no good, they are more likely to act accordingly, at least to some extent. That attitude is basically destructive.
Years ago, I got to the point of being more concerned with how people treat each other than with what they believe. I suspect that God is also.
Lots of thought provoking strands here Craig. First the title. I am extremely wary of any sentence that begins with “Neither you nor I know…” Many times I have stood at a meeting when someone gets up and says “no one knows how to do this….” What am I supposed to think while standing there knowing exactly what to do. It is a comment too often intended to silence rather than encourage discussion and solutions. It is a comment too often made by someone who feels that if they don’t have the answers no one else should.
It is curious that we feel the need to speculate about the future when it is clearly uncertain. It is not unlike the process of invention. We are attempting to push back the darkness and reveal some certainty that we did not formerly possess. There is an interesting variation of this within a discussion of electric vehicles. We compare the future technology with the present technology of ICE vehicles (or nothing at all,) when the technology is continuing to develop for the EV but is relatively static for the ICE. And so we hear comments that EV batteries are this or range issues are that when tomorrow all this could dramatically change.
Similarly we know what the technology of the fossil or nuclear fueled thermal power plant is like and it is possible to make some estimates of what we know and what where we expect unusual or disruptive events to take place. We have lived with the Rankin cycle for almost 300 years. Unlike consumer goods or even electric cars, power plants can be expected to last 50 to 80 years plus. The ones we have and are being built now are not going to simply disappear in 30 or 40 years. The grid capacity grows and they will likely become a smaller percentage of the energy mix but change from this avenue will be relatively slow.
If we developed some amazing power plant technology tomorrow: sustained nuclear fusion it would likely take 10 years to develop the first commercial application and perhaps 20 years to see any real percentage difference in the grid mix. Along the way we can expect to see an expanded use of magnetohydrodynamics up to replacing some of the present generating equipment.
Solar PV is making percentage changes but not on a scale that will fundamentally disrupt the energy mix. Land based, offshore and possibly aerial wind turbines will make some difference but not completely eliminate fossil fuels.
There are potentially disruptive changes and likely places that they will occur that can have a deep impact on fossil fuel use. When we start with what we know we narrow down the field of what we don’t know. Like this the art or science of predicting the future becomes less magic or guesswork that might be only based on a reputation and becomes more a solid analysis. It is not “knowing” in a Divine sense, but it is using basic talents and skills.
To not make the attempt, is to deny our talents Bertrand Russell encourages us to use, but to do so with hubris is to fail to recognize the power of the unknown (or you might say randomness or chance.) When we combine our best skills with a certain humility in the face of the unknown and perhaps Divine we make the best use of our talents.
The long term future is certainly unpredectible but we must have a long term road map that will help our next generation to enjoy their lifes as Jesus love the childern this gives us a clear that the future is our responsiplty.
Jiries Alatrash
Reality is a maelstrom of events and potentials, isn’t it…
Consider the small: The physical flow and interaction between elements and their compounds, and the biological structures and processes of living organisms…
Consider the large: The interaction between the decisions and actions of over 7 billion people, and the machines they build and operate, and the food and fuel they consume, and the behavior and composition of the global climate and biosphere from which we emerged (and upon which we will always depend)…
On both scales, most of us try to understand something about the nature of these relationships, and to determine our best course of action, whether for personal or collective benefit (or, most wisely, for both).
Some of us try to keep useful knowledge secret, in an attempt to gain competitive advantage. Sadly, knowledge restrained leads to misguided power over others.
Cunning people who seek power and wealth will twist anything to serve their purposes – scientific knowledge, religious faith, political ideology, racism, chauvinism and other forms of bigotry, nationalism/patriotism, class divides, cultural differences, fear, love, hope – anything.
If there never were any religion ever at all among humans, there would still be no peace today. If every last one of the people in politics and corporate management took to heart the passage in 1st Timothy, “The love of money is the root of all evil,” they might think and behave quite differently – but then, they wouldn’t make the news, would they…
The God of Abraham is the God of Jews, the Christians and the Muslims alike, and the peoples of all three faiths would do well to keep that fact firmly in mind (and many do).
There societies across the world and throughout history (indeed, almost all in the West, for centuries) where the monarchs or presidents or dictators or priests CLAIMED the blessing of the God of Abraham, or “divine right” or whatever they chose to call it.
Claiming a thing, and its reality, are not the same – obviously. Both the Union and the Confederacy claimed the blessing of God in the “Civil War” …perhaps neither truly.
As Lincoln observed: “How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it a leg.”
Always and everywhere there are so called “authorities” who CLAIM to be religious, and who yet will preach that wealth or hatred are related to godliness. Such ideas are specifically rejected within the books to which they pretend to adhere. Similar hypocrisy occurs in all populations and cultures, and both in and out of religion.
The sad truth is, people in any culture rarely practice what they preach – religious or not – and the more power they have, the more purely true that maxim tends to be.
Nevertheless, the drive is strong in many of us to preserve and pass along what we think we’ve learned, and have therefore come to believe, so that others might benefit from our journey and our observations.
Sometimes these lessons are rendered unnecessary by progress in technology, such as storing milk and meat separately. Others are more enduring, like keeping siblings from breeding.
Ancient traditions, preserved out of what some might call “primitive societies,” are often found to contain quite valuable wisdom developed over many generations. The task remaining to the interested among us today is to sift the grain of value from the chaff of fear and superstition, to identify and transmit the best of that wisdom across cultures and down through the generations.
Examples of such useful lessons might include the following two realizations:
The sharing of knowledge and resources, and the cooperation of different talents and skills, produces a far greater degree of general prosperity and security for all than does self-interest and competition. We learned this as nomadic hunter-gatherers, and the lesson was driven home as we moved as a species toward stable agricultural communities.
Weighing all available information, and considering the potential impact of decisions long into the future, is highly likely to lead to better outcomes than chasing instant gratification and immediate convenience or reward. This basic tenet has long been preserved and reinforced across multiple cultures.
Philosophy means the love of wisdom. In a world of seemingly random conditions and events, and enduring conflict and brutality, preserving such wisdom is key to preserving and advancing civilization itself. These philosophical values are not unique to any one religious tradition, but those traditions of faith have long served to preserve life lessons for future generations that otherwise so often slip away and are lost between generations, as each so briefly passes from birth to death upon the stage.
Each of us has but a few decades to learn, and of those, perhaps one or two to pass on to our loved ones what we have learned. To the extent that central repositories of wisdom exist, they may serve to benefit all, from the simple and dull, to the clever and curious.
I have to say that that quote from Lincoln is incredible. That made my evening.
I’m glad – he had a great sense of humor. I read somewhere that once when, accused of being two-faced, he responded, “Sir, if I had two faces, do you think I’d wear this one?”
The quote has been a little diluted apparently, but the gist is correct… https://timpanogos.wordpress.com/2007/05/23/lincoln-quote-sourced-calfs-tail-not-dogs-tail/
I’m really having a problem accepting the astounding video you linked to, Craig. I would put the odds at way way less than your 1 in 1000 of not only the man surviving as shown, but also someone happening to catch it on a dash camera. I’m pretty sure nobody would be mad enough to attempt something like that on purpose, so my only other guess would be CGA. Do you trust your friend well enough to feel certain that the video is authentic?
Now that you mention it, I accept that this could be CGA, but check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm0ywsD9V88
The old adage holds – a picture is worth a thousand words.
…or is it nine hundred ninety nine…?
This is another funny coincidence: I just got finished showing my wife and her friend the video in the original post, and saying, “Ya know, Ben Wheeler actually could be right here. That’s why I linked to that other video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm0ywsD9V88.
Ben, dash cams are ubiquitous across Eastern Europe, and are becoming increasingly common worldwide. Every year, these capture millions of hours of road time, and thousands of accidents of assorted severity involving all manner of vehicles, animals, and pedestrians.
Some few hundred of these are remarkable spectacles, and many go viral on the net as a result. YouTube is replete with such fodder, viewable for free by hour upon hour. I therefore have little reason to doubt the linked example is genuine.
While it’s certainly possible for such a convincing video to be created using valuable computer graphics resources, I’d strongly question the purpose and utility of such a venture.
I’d also say Craig’s 1/1000 reference is obviously a casual colloquial expression and not remotely intended to be read as a precise statistic. He could easily have said “one in a million” with much the same effect (though far less originality).
What do you think about the themes that Craig is exploring in the post?
It’s so funny you bring that up. I put some thought into that number before filling it in. I was commenting on the probability that he’d get killed, not that he’d land safely on the top of the car. As bad as that crash was, I actually think more than 1/1000 would have survived it (with injuries).
I ride a motorcycle and have viewed many motorcycle accident videos, mainly to get a better understanding of what causes accidents so that I will be better able to avoid them. It’s amazing how often very serious accidents result in no more than minor injuries, but one must not count on that. Wearing full protective gear, and not just a helmet, greatly reduces the likelihood of injury.
Perhaps in a similar vein we should be aware of why past civilizations have collapsed. Sometimes it is the result of their damaging the environment, such as by using irrigation methods which result in salinization of the soil, that destroys them. However, in the past, people had only the ability to damage the environment on a local scale and they could relocate to escape the damage. Now the situation is much more serious.