Dubious Market for Small Wind

A reader who claims to have a great improvement in wind-turbine design on a per-kW basis sent me a fairly detailed treatment of his invention.  I respond:

Thanks for this very interesting analysis.  Here’s the problem, to stay with your analogy that you are (and I won’t dispute it) the “Porsche of the small wind industry.”  But that’s like being the “Rolls Royce of sealing wax,” or the “Ferrari of buggy whips.” It appears that there is a very limited market here in the U.S., because:

• (Most obviously) the industry has heretofore been dominated by snake oil salespeople

• The ROI for the typical customer is abysmal.  A 30% ITC (which may not last too much longer) improves this, but not nearly enough to make the investment attractive

• The LCOE (levelized cost of energy), considering the maintenance, is likewise dreadful

• The typical wind conditions are far worse than the average customer seems to think; most people believe it’s windier where they live than it actually is

If there is a market for these products in today’s world, it’s one of niche’ application.  That doesn’t mean it’s bad; it just means that vendors of small wind should focus on certain places where they can win:

The prime target as far as I’m concerned is cell towers, especially in the developing (off-grid) world, which currently powers their electronics with diesel generators.  The generators are targets for theft, and they’re expensive to maintain and fuel.  And guess what cell towers offer for free?  Altitude!  The one ingredient required to improve the output by perhaps a factor of 5 is yours for the asking.

There are a few companies still trying here, but they don’t seem to be taking my advice here; I don’t envy their shareholders.