Is the Migration to Renewable Energy a Revolution or an Evolution?

In response to my piece “Heard It At the Low Carbon Investors Conference, frequent commenter “MarcoPolo” writes:

Nobody is saying that research and investment into alternate energy technologies, is dead. Nor would any reasonable person suggest that alternate energy technologies, especially solar, won’t improve and secure a significant role in the energy dynamic, over future decades, especially with better storage devices.  But what I’m saying, is that this will be a long process of ‘evolution’, not an apocalyptic ‘revolution.’

It’s also true that overly optimistic claims, and wildly exaggerated advocacy are counter-productive.

I think this is a matter of semantics. I would even say that you’re right: the concept that “we’re 40 years into a 100-year process” is, according to most people’s understanding of the words, more of an evolution. Having said that, while no one can see into the future, I would think that the people who are close to this industry, and are tasked with understanding how fast dollars are flowing into it, make a very good gauge. Here we have observers, even conservative ones like the fellow I quoted (the ex-president of Southern California Edison and current president of Edison International–pictured above) saying things like: “The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) radically underestimates everything. We’re experiencing exponential, not linear growth. The migration to renewables is happening far faster than people realize.”

Call it what you will. Evolution or revolution. PoTAYto, PoTAHto.