What Americans Should Be Thinking About Britain’s Leaving the EU
The plummeting of the stock market following the Brexit vote yesterday should occasion us here in the U.S. to consider what would happen in November of this year if we elect a hateful crackpot with no credible economic plans as president. The 500-point drop in the DJIA we saw today will look like a non-event in comparison.
Probably, as the campaigns get underway, the “hateful crackpot” will be exposed as such to a degree that will make his election impossible; at least I hope so.
Assuming that the “hateful crackpot” loses, his having run could be beneficial. It could awaken politicians to the fact that the American people are unhappy and motivate the politicians to correct some of the serious problems with which we are dealing, including the widening gap between rich and poor, deferred maintenance of our infrastructure, failure to ban military-type weapons and super large magazines, etc.
If the “hateful crackpot” wins, it will be the problem of Congress to keep him reigned in to minimize the damage he causes. In theory, Congress could exercise practically complete control by enacting legislation over his veto. Whether they would do so is another matter.
However you want to define it, there are no sovereign nations in the old sense of the word. (If they ever did exist!)
All nations regardless of their associations and groupings to a greater or lesser extent subject to outside influence. For example, the US could not invade Mexico even if it wanted to without a severe backlash politically and economically from its friends and allies, not to mention chaos on its own streets!
China likewise is constrained by the enormous scale of its manufacturing infrastructure to behave more or less responsibly for fear of losing too many of its customers.
For the UK, I think Brexit will soon come to be seen as problematic.
The leave campaigners seem to think that the process of negotiating a new trade agreement with the EU will be simple and quick, and that the EU will bend over backwards to give us everything we ask for – because it is in their economic interests to do so.
I see two major difficulties with that.
1. The EU will be very keen to avoid contagion and the risk of the entire EU un-ravelling, and so some political grouping will drag out the negotiations and play hardball to show others that the UK can’t have all the “fun” of membership without being willing to be a member and pay your dues, and neither could they if they chose to leave.
2. Imagine you have just left your wife, and on the way out, you ask her if she will carry on preparing your meals because your mistress is a lousy cook. You then ask if you can come back for sex every Sunday when your mistress is at work! What do you think her answer would be? Even if there were sound practical reasons to keep you on side, the emotional reaction to your leaving will make such generosity virtually impossible.
In post Brexit negotiations, we may be forced to concede much of what the majority voted to get away from in order to get a reasonable trade deal with the EU, and that without a voice at the table!
Alternatively, we might have to accept a significantly poorer standard of living without a specific trade agreement with the EU – with escalating national debt, (or severe austerity with no guarantee this significantly reduce our debt burden).
It also looks to me likely that we will see will more onerous borrowing conditions, higher interest rates, the return of inflation, and an economy in a weaker position to afford new debt – with the possible risk of the economy going into a tailspin as the stock markets crash, the currency continues to weaken, debt burden increases, productivity falls, un-employment rises, and increasing levels of disorder are seen on our streets!
Gary,
I think we are neighbours, and yet we see the future so differently.
It’s true that uncertain times lay ahead, yet ‘Great Britain’ managed to survive, and even proper, before joining the common market. The UK can do so again. maybe this is just the incentive for people of these small islands to focus on the importance of working together for a better, more united future.
Maybe it time to reach out and rebuild our family relationship with the Scots, and the far flung Commonwealth whom we neglected during our ‘affair’ with Europe.
If we don’t retreat back to the bitter class warfare, destructive internecine warfare of the past, but concentrate of building a bright new future, we can once again desrrve the title “Great Britain”.
Thanks for this very insightful comment. This is pretty much what I thought, but it’s good to have it confirmed.
I just read my wife your analogy to the new mistress; we both thought that was wonderful.
Craig, the common thread I see with both of your points is seems to be that “Democracy” is in trouble as the institution is practiced.
Briton voted. How many of them knew they were voting for a trade policy, for an effect on inflation, for economic security? How many thought they were voting on immigration polity http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32793642 How many are so frustrated with government that they simply want to “vote” against something.
Trump for president is a natural extension of the direction our society has been going. There are large sections of our society that are essentially anti-intellectual. The mass of those who do further their education acquire more training to do a job than acquiring the skills of how to learn and how to reason and how to avoid being swayed by propaganda. Propaganda also has a new tool known as “social media” that not only adds pressure to a “deciding population” but counts the “votes” to let you know if you are part of “most people” or a “fringe element.”
But in the “double-speak” of today’s media Trump is labeled a “master brander” rather than a propagandist or a cult leader. I am curious at our widespread condemnation of the man without carefully examining and deploring his method. Sadly I am coming to believe it is because our “leaders” wish to keep using these methods on a population that has been groomed for decades and is now settling into complacency. Trump is simply better at manipulating the population than most.
It would be disconcerting if there was a widespread lack of moral leadership co-existing with a pervasive ignorance of what is significant in the general population. In honor of the upcoming independence day we can remember the words of the founding fathers. “A population usually gets the government it deserves.” has been credited to Thomas Jefferson but (surprise) it should be attributed to Joseph-Marie, comte de Maistre (all is not as it seems.)
While we prepare to celebrate our independence day we could also ponder the words of another writer of the “Declaration” document with similar thoughts: Benjamin Franklin while addressing a body charged with creating the constitution: gave an address containing these words:
“there is no form of Government but what may be a blessing to the people if well administered, and believe farther that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in Despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic Government, being incapable of any other.” Have we become “so corrupted?”
This huffpo article seems to discribe the disease. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/henry-mintzberg/getting-the-government-we_1_b_784781.html
Breath,
You wrote, “The mass of those who do further their education acquire more training to do a job than acquiring the skills of how to learn and how to reason and how to avoid being swayed by propaganda.”
That is something about which I have been concerned for many years. Education is pushed as being necessary to get a career or job which pays well and little is said about the necessity of education to enable people to think clearly and be responsible citizens. The idea that it is important to get a well-rounded liberal education seems to have disappeared. We have professional engineers who understand nothing except mathematics, science, and technology. On the other hand, we have liberal arts majors who understand nothing about physics and other sciences. Both often have no understanding of economics.
One of the problems is that no one can acquire all knowledge. There is a limit to what all of us can learn. The years required to get a high school diploma or a college degree cannot be extended enough for us to learn everything. However, it may be possible, at least to some degree, to teach people how to think rationally and recognize that there are some subjects for which they are not adequately informed to have valid opinions.
It’s shocking what some people espouse because of ignorance. Here are clear examples.
A few decades ago, it was discovered that the common refrigerants we use, such as R12 and R22, were depleting the ozone layer. Some ignorant environmentalists immediately asserted that we should stop using refrigeration and air conditioners at once. They were completely unaware that air conditioning and refrigeration existed before R12 and R22 existed and that there were alternative refrigeration gasses we could use that would not deplete the ozone layer.
I have met environmentalists who do not understand that electric heaters use far more power than electric can openers. The ignorance of some of these people is astounding, and they do not even understand that they are ignorant. Being ignorant may not be a sin, but they should recognize the need for more knowledge before stridently pushing their viewpoints. But most people will not study both sides of issues. Instead, they read only what supports what they already believe.
Re Marco Polo’s point, I don’t necessarily disagree. Britain can and will survive, and in pure economic terms, I think it is possible that the UK will after 5 to 10 years start to prosper outside the EU.
In time, we will mend fences with our European neighbours and so on. I just think that the next few years will be filled with a higher level of economic risk than would otherwise have been the case, and that we are in for volatile times until all this settles down.
Will our Universities and research institutes rank as highly? Maybe not.
Will the City of London be weakened – possibly, in the short time almost certainly.
Is a weakening of the City of London necessarily a bad thing? No – with a weaker financial sector, we may concentrate more on growing other areas of our economy, and in the process distribute economic activity more evenly around the country.
Whatever happens, I think I can safely say we are in for interesting times.
In the aftermath of the referendum, I’ve received a flood of congratulatory messages from investors and clients, grateful for my early forecasting in sufficient time to maximize substantial financial gains.
For an analyst and investment banker, Brexit was one of those ‘once in a decade’ opportunities to generate spectacular profits.
The turbulence of the next few months will provide golden opportunities for financial speculators to generate spectacular profits. (and equally spectacular losses).
I voted for the UK to leave the EU, but with a very heavy heart. For all the problems, EU membership had many advantages. Not just in terms of trade, but the advantage of membership in the world largest economic alliance.
Had the EU remained the EEC, with goals and objectives limited to economic, and even cultural aspects of a cooperative union, I believe the citizens of UK would still be enthusiastic members.
Over time the ambitions of the EU changed significantly. EU bureaucrats saw themselves as supplanting local sovereign authority. EU regulations began to usurp national laws. not just economically, but in aspects relating to way citizens of member states conducted their lives and cultures, that had never been previously countenanced or authorized through any democratic process.
The UK legal and governance system is historically incompatible with other member states. Over centuries the UK has evolved a very different attitude to law, government and culture than other EU nations. A lot of lives have been sacrificed to retain our unique cultural values and independence.
One of tragedies arising from the referendum, is the loss from British public life of a decent,able, and honest politician.
History will remember David Cameron as a sincere and honest politician who tried to wrestle with impossible forces to achieve the best result for his nation. To his credit, he trusted the people of Britain to manage their own destiny and agreed to abide by their decision.
Whatever the consequences, the people of Britain must accept responsibility. There can be no blame attached to government, no accusations of maneuvering by deceitful politicians, no backroom deals. Each citizen must accept the responsibility for this decision and accept responsibility for the outcome.
This is a good thing. It’s nation building. It’s a shame to lose David Cameron, but Boris Johnson is an experienced and intelligent politician. Like his hero, Winston Churchill, Boris may turn out to be the leader required for such turbulent challenges.
Already, there is a desperate effort by the leftist media to portray the “leave” vote as being solely motivated by racism and anti-immigrant hatred.
This explanation is also being promoted by the usual “intellectual elite” talking heads, as a justification for their own Euro-cringe and dismissal of the mood of the people as “ignorant” and morally reprehensible.
(an interestingly exercise in hypocrisy, since the objects of their patronizing contempt are the very people they have always claimed to represent !).
Nor are the overly publicized rantings from the odious Nigel Farage and his extreme UKIP, to be considered significant. The vast majority of the British people are tolerant, and even proud of migrants.
The people of the UK have become increasing alarmed by the concept that other countries should be allowed to control the affairs of Great Britain. Like Australia, the British people want the right to decide who comes to Britain. That’s not racist or xenophobic, just the right to decide whom you invite into your home.
The UK sees no advantage in abandoning centuries of struggle and sacrifice to develop it’s legal principles, only to be forced to adopt dubious and unstable practices from other nations, most of whom are former enemies.
There is no comparison with Donald Trump, except the importance for politicians not to take the electorate for granted.
Brexit has proved that the role of sovereign states may be diminished, but its still a powerful force. People want to belong to something they can understand, relate, and participate in the decision making.
The challenge ahead for England is to make the people of Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales feel valuable and essential fellow citizens of a united Great Britain.
Tony Blair “devolution” experiment has prove to be a disaster for British Unity.
The EU failed because it tried to become a “super power”, a “United States of Europe”. The politicians and EU bureaucrats arrogantly ignored the wishes of ordinary citizens in member states, who never expressed any desire to belong to a “USE”.
Just as Britain will survive and grow stronger, the US will not perish in the unlikely event that Donald trump becomes President, the checks and balances within the US system are far too powerful to allow an inexperienced US President to be any more than a temporary aberration.
But it should be a wake-up call for Hillary Clinton, and her fellow democrats. If she ignores the aspirations and concerns of Donald Trump supporters, she will pave the way for a far more cunning and experienced politician to exploit embittered, frustrated Trump supporters.
Just as the people of England must embrace and rekindle the bonds of kinship with the people of Scotland and Wales, so must Democrats avoid gloating at the downfall of Trump.
Rejoicing at his defeat and reviling him personally, will only embitter and further alienate a growing section of the American populace. Hillary Clinton must somehow persuade her own supporters to accommodate and reconcile with Trump supporters if her Presidency is to achieve anything more than an increase in bitter internecine conflict.
She must inspire, reassure and offer the nation confidence in strong and inclusive government. The sort of administration that was promised, but not delivered, by President Obama.
America needs a great, not perfect, not merely good, but great President. With greatness often comes may personal flaws, maybe the much battered, very flawed, HC possesses that unique vision, insight and courage to be a “great” President.
Great Presidents, also need a great people, mature enough to concentrate on issues of national importance, and reject the appetite for lurid scandal that seems to beset the American and British media.
Time will tell. Like Brexit, what ever the American people decide, they must accept the consequences of their decision and respect the result of the ballot box.
Probably the shock of Brexit will have an effect on the EU since it will now take into greater consideration the positions of the citizens of the various countries which remain in the EU. It will realize that other countries could follow the UK’s example and will take steps to reduce that risk.
Of course Brexit was the responsibility of the people of the UK and, although we Americans are perfectly free to make suggestions and recommendations, which Obama has done, that is all we can do. We cannot dictate.
The relationship between the UK and the EU reminds me of a slightly similar situation between the UN and the US. There are Americans who feel that the UN has too much power, or may acquire too much power, and override the authority of the American people to make their own decisions. I don’t feel competent to comment on the degree of validity of that fear. However, it may be that Brexit will have an influence on how the UN treats member nations.