Sustainability: Young People Actually Care About This Stuff
When I speak in public about the macro trends associated with sustainability and the environment, I always mention the importance of the huge generational differences that exist regarding this topic. In general, young people are far more interested in environmental justice and social responsibility than their parents. As suggested in the article linked above, young peoples’ sensibilities affect not only the products they buy and the brands to which they’re loyal, but also the type of companies for which they work and the way they live their lives more generally.
Of course, this effect becomes even more pronounced with each passing year, as a) older people (literally) die off, and b) our understanding of the imminent environmental catastrophe becomes even more precise.
That’s all good. But is there enough time left to make this transition? No one knows.
There isn’t enough time to make the transition away from fossil fuels, regardless of which technologies are used to make the transition, i.e., it is too late to prevent serious global warming. At this point, all we can do is limit it to a certain extent and prepare to deal with it.
Dealing with global warming will greatly increase our need for power and practically all of our power must be obtained from sources which are totally CO2-free. 50%, 60%, or 80% CO2 free is insufficient. That means that we cannot even use fossil fuels for back up power. And, that includes power for cooking, lighting, heating, cooling, transportation, sea water desalination, manufacturing, etc.
Regarding manufacturing, suitable means must be found to reduce iron ore to iron without emitting CO2. Probably that will require some form of electrolysis, just as reducing aluminum ore to aluminum uses electrolysis. Unfortunately, electrolysis requires a lot of electrical power which is why aluminum is much more expensive than steel.
Mass migrations of people from areas that are no longer livable because of flooding or climate will require building massive amounts of new housing. That will further strain power sources.
From the theoretical standpoint I think that the necessary transitions could be adequately made. However, current attitudes and political systems could not adequately deal with such massive transitions. Therefore, it is likely that there will be massive armed conflicts which could destroy civilization as we know it. And, delays in moving away from fossil fuels will exacerbate the problems.
Frank, you assume present conditions and add global warming. It is a common mental approach to simplify a problem to arrive at a solution. Unfortunately natural systems are not always so simple.
For years there were arguments about whether global warming or a massive metorite killed off the dinosaurs. The latest perspective is that it was global warming (volcanic origin) with a touch of meteorite that would finish them off.
We could contemplate a more complex scenario for our present situation. Global Warming will initiate through any number of agencies an massive cull in the the human population resulting in a substantially reduced demand for power. Finding sufficient power may not be our biggest problem after a tipping point.
Also, although I dislike the thought, at some point ego-engineering is likely to be seriously considered as a crisis response to increased greenhouse gases.
Frank,
Or then again, such dire doomsday predictions may never occur !
One of the most common errors made by doomsday projections is modeling the most pessimistic, even dubious, factors as a base, and extrapolating until a preconceived conclusion is reached.
Less than a decade ago a consensus existed that human civilization would break down due to imminent and irreversible “peak oil”. Naturally, when this didn’t occur and not only did technology ensure that oil consumption fell (or at least failed to rise) along with a massive increase in production and discovery of new reserves, the doomsayers were dismayed.
There has never been a time in human history when some group of soothsayers weren’t predicting the doom of mankind as the result of human wickedness. From the invention of the bow and arrow to nuclear weapons there has always been a group of earnest doomsayers predicting the end of the world as we know it.
Alarming Global Warming and Climate change predictions are just the latest in a long tradition of doomsday prophesies.
That’s not to say that the science isn’t valid, or that human industry and activity isn’t creating an adverse effect on the planets bio-sphere. It’s just increasingly difficult sorting out actual “science” from a barrage of sensational misinformation.
Unfortunately, for some Climate Change has become a sort of religion, or crusade, while objective analysis has been drowned or distorted by name calling and the desire to burn heretics at the stake.
Technology, economic and social attitudes are moving very quickly to mitigate many of the most urgent priorities.Not fast enough for those alarmists calling for a disruptive “revolution” but probably adequate to meet the challenges of “evolution” to a more environmentally friendly planet.
Crying, “alarm, alarm, Woe betide our fate, doom is upon us” and rushing out to leap upon our horses and flee in all directions at once, can only prove counter-productive (although dramatic).
Humans are a very adaptive species. Adaptive, creative, resilient, and innovative. Of all our skills and talents, it must be observed of our species, we are great survivors !
Have faith, and trust to the ingenuity of your fellow man.
Marco, I appreciate your optimism, as it is. Some of my time has been spent solving problems and more importantly looking for anticipated problems. It is quite easy to wreck an optimistic outlook when trying to be cautious. Perhaps at some point we have to find the motivation to remain hopeful while we continue to solve the issues that are presented to us and anticipate the problems we forsee along our selected path.