Evidence of Climate Change Is Getting Quite Intense
Two locations in the Middle East topped 129 degrees F today, setting a record, and reminding us of what’s in store for us if we don’t aggressively take action to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gasses.
My request: Look at the pic here and ask yourself: “Am I OK with this?”
Thanks Craig and you are absolutely correct.
Climate change due to increasing trends in greenhouse gases emissions is a very real phenomena and its permanent reversal requires all national governments to embrace the science and implement a range of visionary bold policies that will do just that.
But soft leadership always begets soft policies, and that’s where we are all cocooned at the moment.
Of course climate change reversal seems totally unfathomable to most people, yet crystal clear to another small group of people. One thing is certain though, that a dramatic shift away from fossil fuels use in power generation and the internal combustion engine (which account for over 60% of greenhouse gas emissions) would reverse the negative trends quite quickly and permanently. Further reductions in methane emissions through new technologies is a parallel path for new science to tackle along with fossil fuel emissions (CO2 mainly).
So there you have it – a permanent reversal strategy able to be tackled incrementally globally and mission accomplished within 50 years. Nice.
That’s an easy hypothesis to throw out there of course but the problem is that as people, we have not collectively acted boldly this last 15 years. Instead we have all dumbed down and found false comfort by tip toeing around this subject, preferring to take the dead end technologies route by investing extraordinary amounts of taxpayers funding globally on largely meaningless research and development into lightweight and soft energy-tech technologies that have in hindsight (and predictably so) delivered absolutely zero to the greenhouse gasses emissions situation globally.
Instead, we could have taken another route, one underpinned by visionary bold policies that are achievable that clearly map out a pathway in science to permanently resolving the climate change issues, whilst also satisfying the future global imperative of “low cost and abundant energy for all people” which of course is absolutely essential for the development of new age energy intensive industries and technologies to promote global development and economic and social prosperity.
And we are all responsible for choosing the directions taken this last decade. It is time for some bold leadership from those who claim to be leaders or else we will continue to be nations of people “running on the spot” and going nowhere, as the greenhouse gasses increase.
Lawrence Coomber
Craig,
“My request: Look at the pic here and ask yourself: “Am I OK with this?”
You’re right, I’m not ! But,I guess it’s time for the pitchforks and firebrands of the Church of Global Warming Alarmists to have me tried for heresy for pointing out that your picture, while emotive, is an obvious fake.
Apart from the obvious that a Polar bear and a penguin would have to have accumulate a lot of frequent flier points to actually meet, no sane seal would sit so close to a hungry Polar Bear.
Seals can remain in the water for eight months without once touching land, often swimming more than 6,000 miles !
Polar Bears can swim over 500 miles without stopping, and often use small summer ice flows as “pit stops”, increasing their range to 1000 to 1500 miles. Amazingly, bears can also catch and eat sea food, including kelp, on marathon swims.
Which brings us to your highly emotive, sensationalist article !
Hottest day ever ! Screams the Washington Post banner headline,:
” Two Middle East locations hit 129 degrees, hottest ever in Eastern Hemisphere, maybe the world ”
See ! Cry global Warming Alarmists, that’s proof of the need to panic and demand radical action !
Except it’s about as valid as the idea of a Penguin and a Polar Bear sharing an ice-berg. Not only have hotter temperatures been recorded, but even if all the other higher temperature readings are discounted, we’re still only talking about 0.3°F difference with other historical “record temperatures”.
This sort of news story is sensationalist, but unscientific. Selective measurements of temperatures over very short time spans, prove nothing. Nor does comparing data from the latest measuring technology, against data from older technology, prove anything except an improvement in technology.
Articles like this are irritating because while having scientific basis, they are presented in a style to suggest being a serious scientific report, when in reality the information is distorted and sensationalized.
Such articles are not helpful in educating people about environmental awareness. On the contrary, while the converted revel in sensationalism, the vast majority of people become increasing inured and lose interest the sensationalism begins to lose impact, and becomes counter-productive.
Yes, I guess you’re right about the photo; I probably should have thought about it before selecting it.
And I know you’re not one of the “global warming alarmists.” Of course, the term “alarmist” is a pejorative meaning people who are concerned about a certain subject without due cause. Here, considering what our scientists are telling us (and common sense/routine observation confirms), I think there is plenty of due cause for alarm.
Again, I know you don’t see it this way; that’s fine.
Hi Craig,
No, no, it’s a great photo,.. sorry, I just couldn’t help being mischievous !
No, I’m not an alarmist, but that doesn’t mean I’m not just as concerned as you. It’s just that I think there are two methods of addressing any crisis (or potential crisis).
1) Cry doom, despair, calamitous disaster ! rush out and fling yourself upon your horse and ride madly off in all directions at once. ..(apologies to Stephen Leacock).
Or ;
2) Careful analyze the exact nature and realistic potential of the crisis, determine a rational strategy and response, and set to work implementing a practical resolution, being careful to cultivate as much diverse support as possible.
I realize the second method might seem boring and conventional.
I think of our planet a ship in a tempest. We could panic at the probability of sinking, hold meetings, make fiery speeches about who’s to blame, who should survive, debate about why we need a better ship, and what sort, devise complicated technologies of replacing the ships stalled engines (sails, giant oars etc) and debating about the rising flooding,finally sink congratulating each other on how it wasn’t our fault.
Or,
We could just stop panicking, repair the engines, re-start the pumps, get the ship back under control, and ride out the storm. We might not succeed, but at least we tried.
The point I’m making, is this is the only ship we have. There are 7 billion passengers. True environmental progress needs less preaching, and more tangible results.
I use the term “global warming alarmists.” to describe people who are more concerned with politics and advocacy, and other agenda’s than any real environmental benefit.
(I don’t include you in that category).
The dubious but sensational claims contained in the article you cited, distract not attract support for real environmental progress. Confusing ‘weather events’ with GW/CC science only serves to lessen the impact and credibility of really important scientific information.
Craig, like you I’m personally acquainted with a number of reputable scientists (even some, not so reputable!) and I must confess to being a little bewildered by the wide variances of opinion among people who should agree with one another.
Nor am I myopic, I carefully listen to all opinions objectively.
I try hard not to stereotype or categories experts. History has taught us that the greatest of minds can get it wrong, while very flawed personalities can often see a truth obscured to all others. (apologies to G.K.Chesterton).
May I suggest that you have a look at some of the work by Matt Ridley author of The Rational Optimist. Like all advocates Matt isn’t an oracle of all truth, but does have some interesting and insightful observations.
Like his late father (who I also had the honour of knowing) Matt is an individual very much concerned with sorting wheat from chaFf.
His website is : http://www.mattridley.co.uk/
I’m sure you’d find some of his stuff interesting.
Please see my post on this: http://www.2greenenergy.com/2016/07/29/environmental-sustainability/
@ Lawrence
Agree with the spirit of your Posting but what is the technology or mix of technology that can get us where we need to be in 50 years?
I sense some broad paint brush swipes against first and second generation renewable energy sources that are still evolving and becoming even more cost effective and more productive with each passing year.
I would not causally dismiss the estimated $ 7 trillion in clean energy investments on the Global Market! that has been estimated by 2025 .
That level of investment can’t all be misplaced!
Even Shell Oil co says e will be 50 % Renewable energy by 2050 and close to 85 % or closer by 2100 so what is wrong with what is going on.
I do agree that most policy is Too Soft and Feeble and much better can be done. Like Brother Marco I’d Love to learn the details of your plan and Visions ?
Silent Running despite what Shell says its all nonsense talk. And unfotunately that is the the dilema that the average concerned person like you and me cant quite reconcile.
It is simply to large a subject to challenge head on it seems and is now consigned to the self destruct over time phenomena.
It brings a lump to my throat to think that in a few short years we will all have to reflect on the 7 trillion you have cited Silent Running as having not made any measurable or meaningful impact whatsoever on green house gas negative trends. This is a horrible truth to contemplate.
So what happens then?
Well human nature is very predictable and the rhetoric and discussion will then have to be reinvented with even more urgency attached and collectively the imperatives will be spelled out and the next generation of technology research and development of new age technologies to reverse greenhouse gases permanently will be mobilised.
Of course its better late than never which is not an option.
The key point is that the 7 trillion dollars poured into the boutique and lightweight technologies we see around us over the last 15 years are disproportionate to the miniscule global public benefits realised and have overwhelmed other energy dense technologies research funding sources.
Lack of open and honest discourse by our political, scientific and corporate leaders has steered us deftly down this rocky road unfortunately and set us back about 20 years in my estimation.
@ Lawrence
Appreciate your time and effort in trying to respond to my response to your statements.
I appreciate the limits of the current formats ffffor the very Renewable Energy which myself have promoted and installed over the course of working.
I also am aware and quite hopeful that improvements and capabilities will continue to flow thru the pipeline. Price and cost continue to decline.
Too many Utilities and Governments and Private Sector players have all participated in spending this 7 Trillion. While I acknowledge some gaps and lets call them intermittent pauses these investments have been made.
I doubt seriously that all of these investments are totally useless and in Vain! No One is holding a gun to their head !!!
So I return to my question , is there a technology that needs greater support and promotion.
I would like to learn of what the better Path Forward could or should be ?? Because Time and Opportunity are slipping away on that we can agree and Consequences are awaiting us in a collective Impact too..
Thanks for responding
@ Silent Running
Silent Running seemed a little perplexed by my commentary last week. That’s not unusual, as I occasionally contribute to various discussions and be found generally to be perplexing to most at the very least. That’s not a reflection on Silent Running of course, he is an astute technocrat and I have a sneaky suspicion he is on the threshold of a major rethink regarding the future of current renewable energy technologies that we all enjoy and see around us at the moment. How about we revisit his thinking in one year’s time and evaluate that.
But Craig as you have been fair minded enough to allow me to use your forum to rattle on without summarily ejecting me, it seems fitting that I respond appropriately and introduce myself (briefly) and put a little bit of meat on the bone so to speak.
You are wrong about me firstly. You think of me as an ill-informed shoot from the hip critic of current renewable energy technologies therefore I must be a supporter of unfashionable technologies like coal and oil. This couldn’t be further away from the truth.
There are many around the world who know me well from my very visible involvement in the global renewable energy industry at just about every level. Although I am a very insignificant fish in a big pond, I have been around a long time and actually achieving things in many sectors of the industry encompassing lecturing in renewable energy science subjects at tertiary level in Australia, India and China; I am a circuit lecturer to middle school students in China on “Global Artificial Food Production and other New Age Energy Intensive Technologies”; I have created substantial academic awards for renewable energy graduates; also innovative product and systems design and manufacturing and recognised research and development with new technology outcomes. I own a few patents for new renewables technologies in both Solar PV and Run of River Micro Hydro Generation technology.
I founded a company in 1985 after I left the Royal Australian Navy after 20 years’ service and started designing water and energy related new technology. We operate in Australia and Asia, and are the industry leaders in one form of smart metering and I expect we will become the same in Off Grid Micro Grid technology over the next 3 years or so, we are well on the way there already.
My lively hood therefore comes directly from Off Grid Systems design supply and install. Predominately, Solar PV, Battery Storage (our own design and manufactured VRLA battery) and Micro Hydro as power sources, all into our own design and manufactured Inverter.
I know the industry inside out, the good the bad and the ugly on three continents and to a lesser extent the USA. I am sometimes involved in ministerial agendas involving Gov to Gov deliberations on energy technology strategies, and have had the ear of a few global heads of state over the last 5 years in one on one energy technology discussions at international Governmental meetings.
What I am particularly proud of this year is I constructed and presented a project plan to the Jinan Government in January 2016 to create the “world’s first” International Renewable Energy Center of Excellence and Technology Training Academy. This has been agreed to and work has commenced on the facility due to open in Q3 2017. You are most welcome to come over at any time and have a look at how it’s forming up.
So I consider that I am as ensconced in the industry as one could be, and importantly as a self-funded independent operator. No conflict of interest. No vested interests. No under the counter deals being offered. Professionally detached with a critical eye when need be, and definitely not looking to bend over backwards to make friends in the industry either.
But herein lays the key point Craig, there is no contradiction simply because I am a beneficiary of being in the industry, this is simply the objective truth; the renewable energy industry is now a global out of control goliath without brakes. Worse, it has no useful purpose whatsoever on a global scale as a viable energy contributor to the worlds energy needs now or in the future. Current technologies have not, and cannot make any impact whatsoever on greenhouse gas emissions and this grave point is an unchallengeable one in science.
Further, and unfortunately the technologies themselves are not extensible, they are not on a path where they can naturally morph to more energy dense and meaningful useful technologies suited for the future global energy imperatives of “abundant low cost clean technology power for all people and the new age industries”.
Current renewable energy technologies are therefore rapidly becoming stranded assets that will need considerable funding in the near future to disassemble and dispose of safely. Think I am making that up; I have been to places where this is already happening! Now that comment will raise your eyebrows for sure.
But enough of all this for now Craig. The right and proper thing to do is agree to disagree but let’s make a date to revisit all this stuff in one year and have another look at the state of play then.
So let me finish where I started, Silent Running. He put a question to me to answer; twice he says, and got nothing back in response. Silent Running, the answer is simply this, it is in the hands of the world’s best and brightest young physicists, scientists, engineers and researchers, mobilised as an urgent unilateral global political initiative. Mission accomplished (and for well under $7 trillion I might add). As mere individuals we don’t have to know everything to be bold, astute and meaningful commentators, we just have to know some things.
I have included a few URL’s that flesh out some of the points above.
Lawrence Coomber
1. http://www.98xtxy.com/html/2013/xydt_0905/3720.html
2. http://www.aquilapower.com
3. http://www.renewableenergyacademy.com/mission.html
4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-28/trouble-in-renewable-energy-spotted-in-china-s-idled-wind-farms
@ Lawrence C
Good evening and trust you had a good day in Aussie Land. Send a note to Marco and see if the Great White shark was in his sights !
Appreciate your thorough communication and overview of your many roles and engagements in the energy sector. I can relate to the many charlatans and bad players that have done both RE and other forms of energy an Injustice , etc.
All sectors are like that its not unique to energy and the technical and level of investment needed tend to Cull Out the bad players sooner than in some consumer type sectors.
From what you said I trust that you have striven to Raise the Bar. Thanks for sharing your Vision on some large collaborative venture you have in play and I will go check out the URL’s you shared.
RE like other forms of energy supply is Evolving and it has not reached its operating limits. EG the solar panel efficiency’s are now hitting the 23 to 24.5 % range and this is from a base line of 8 % to 13 % perhaps 10 or 12 years ago. And the price fell over 70 % again in a bit over a decade.
Economic return is already in the 8 to 10 yr range for residential applications across a wide range of grid prices and incentives or no incentives. Where I live with only Federal incentives they pay off in 8 years. Early adopters will get a 2 to 2.5 Saving to Investment Return or more with utility inflation? So it is very hard to accept that all of this $ 7 trillion has been wasted!
Things in energy must be put into perspective so I leave that eg. at that and move on.
My Journey has been with the Supply side and the Demand side and if you want to have a read on me , I am coming from trying to find the right balance point in the complicated and yes at times convoluted energy equation. Factor in years spent cleaning up the environmental consequences of poor operating standards in multiple sectors of energy and industry , mining, etc., and it provides insight into these matters perhaps.
So Hopefully my Johari’s window is a balanced approach to the Demand, Supply and Environmental side along with the Human input interaction. All of course impacted by either good political or bad political influence.
Lawrence your comment to me was appreciated and taken well. My positions are flexible and I am open to new Technologies and Formats if they can do a better job of meeting the world’s needs etc. However because of my Utility supply and demand side work and in other roles; I think that energy supply options must Incorporate the Evolving Human demand factor and we should not be designing from what the Historical pattern was as the dynamics are changing. Just because the emerging countries are rising demand etc this does not mean that the mature Western economies are going to do the same.
So a 1 size fits all approach is not the right approach. Demand is diverse so Supply may need to be diverse and integrated properly to optimize the balance point!
In the US the average Load Factor for Electric Utilities with all their Expert talent and computers and all the other Bells and Whistles and Big Power Plants is declining. Has been for years now , growth is gone except for limited regions . The load factor is at 50 % so the economy and the public pay alot of money for investment and plant that is used on average for 50 % of the year.
So demand management is deficient for Openers! America can’t remain competitive with the current utility demand/supply model, needs major restructuring.
This has happened when the rest of the economy has gone deep into Just In time Mode of Operation. So it is not efficient or wise to do what we used to do as it is not working. Its the right Technology mix that is needed.
Not a healthy situation so we must factor that into our concepts of what is the optimal supply option etc. That is my baseline position
Here is some info on SMR’s which I shared with
@ Breath on the Wind as he asked some questions about deployment , etc.
Perhaps you are aware of these developments based on your postings and background.
Greetings, First of all I was sharing some recent press release info on the leading company in the Small Modular sector so called Advanced Reactor. Some of the comm-enters have a Yearning for more nuclear etc. So I try to converse along and see if there is new info to learn. As I have communicated in other Postings I am not a Big Rah Rah supporter of the nuclear sector for many reasons. Cost , risk and concentration of capital and power supply are issues. Also the changing nature of base load power demand nationally is reducing the need for large assets.
So I use the term Nuclear Genie as a mild form of Sarcasm etc.
However as a energy supply practitioner I try to keep an open mind and I do foresee some scenarios where just maybe if the Genie can finally really learn how to Perform in a cost effective manner perhaps it will fill the gaps w the current formats of Renewable Energy, Emerging Tidal Power, and End use Efficiency , Batteries etc. Only time will tell if SMR’s can . Around 8 co’s are in various phases of R & D in this area.
The leading company is Nu Scale. They are an out growth of Oregon St University and they have been at it for 13 years and are in serious negotiations with the US DOE and the NRC for installing a unit back East at a Federal Nuclear site – Savannah GA. They have been bought by the Global Engr firm Fluor so now they have Deep pockets.
Their big play is to install a 40 megawatt prototype at the Idaho Nat Lab in Idaho.
They filed a 10,000 page application to the NRC to get them to issue a Siting approval permit for construction etc. A NRC license.
The Lab wants the prototype and Nu Scale has the entire Utah Elec Cooperatives signed up to be their utility customer. The cooperatives are phasing out from Coal as are so many users now. So Nu Scale is well positioned to move this ball forward if things work out at the Idaho lab .
Added note – The NRC usually takes 40 months to review etc. Perhaps this is analysis paralysis I don’t know but it drags things out so its a deep pocket game for sure.
Their Executive says it will be in the 24th or 25 th year that they start getting multiple orders and shipping out the modular reactors to the various sites etc. their Goal is Global as many Nations are having second positions on the larger traditional nuke format. Falling out of favor to be blunt.
The take homes are many but the one that stands out is that it takes 25 years or so to get this done and by that time America will have 150 GW of solar or more and well over a 100 GW’s of Wind so the Small Modular Reactors will have lots of catching Up to Do! That Genie is going to have to Ramp into Over Drive to catch Up.
Most likely the Small Modular crowd will focus on the aging big nuke plant sites as its easier to get a NRC permit there as the site has one etc. The existing Nukes that are retiring per their end of life cycle in the 2030 time frame going forward so that may be the window of opportunity that works for the Genie , we shall see.
Breath on The Wind , these modular nukes if they can be commercialized along the lines the promoters say and claim they could Fill a energy void and reduce global warming etc. The deployment time is supposed to be 2 yrs or so and cost around $2,500 to $ 3,000 per KW over nite costs. With a high capacity factor of 80 to 93 % their LCOE will be real good. They will provide firming power to augment Renewable’s but they will be added in modular increments to a utility co’s generation mix. This is so that they are Not Saddled with over generation costs and we consumers are not saddled with high power prices.
Perhaps this will all work out or Other better Options may preclude their progress ?? For now it is in the Nuclear Genie’s hands its on him or her.!
Your comment of 70 years for Fusion research and all its false starts and stops and hollow promises rings music to my ears. Its the Historical Record and the truth.
That work continues in France with a multi nation consortium pouring Billions into that Holy Grail Quest ???!!!??? so the years are still adding to the 70 ….
As for Investment in RE being bad , not my position.
The detractors of RE make many claims but they tend to over look that the prices for a solar KWHr has come down from $1.00 per kwhr to $ 3.5 cents now and dropping. Wind from Mid 40 cents per Kwhr to $ .03 cents so real price progress and real increased productivity Capacity Factors have been attained. Most of this has been done in the past 12 years which speaks for itself. The Nations, Firms and utilities keep buying it so someone must be Happy and Pleased. I see Great Investments made and wish the detractors well! Challenge them to produce other viable solutions not just talk about them in some Mythical Omnipotent manner etc.
Back to this Post
Yes Laurence I am sure there have been over selling of shoddy solar and other technologies. China has dumped a lot of junk on market .
Many a wind farm over in China was built with out the needed transmission to get it to market. Because of America’s developed Regulatory system FERC prevented and minimized those issues here.
The Closed Texas Grid ERCOT realizes that Texas could be exporting more Wind Power and also solar power East into Louisiana, and the South if they agree to expanded wholesale exchanges. The Power producers could make more money and it would make the generating economics work better for the Grid System, etc. Also a new source of needed State tax revenues. So Texas is beginning to see it must expand beyond its Legacy Oil & Gas base. The money players are having these types of discussions now and before they would have been looked at as Heresy. The times are a changing!
So problems come not just from technology but lack of governance , the corruption factor in developing world is also at play.
Hells Bells I have watched solar sold to the US Army for $ 5.50 or more a watt when the market price was $3.50 for smaller systems? Go figure , but when a country spends over half its National budget on guns, military etc., Insider trading , etc., it becomes a license to steal by certain folks.
Its not always the technology it is also the greed and dishonesty factor!
The first generation of wind machines in US were not real winners and they are now being replaced and sites UP Rated in capacity and capacity factor and the positive Beat goes on. I refuse to accept that people like Warren Buffet whose Utility is going for another 2,800 megawatts Wind in Iowa and the other private utility is going for 800 more Wind megawatts in Iowa also.
These co’s are publicly traded and the Board of Directors are held accountable. They can’t afford to make this level of totally bad investments. It defies common sense.
So lets see where the Journey leads us going forward , there will be some new developments and the deck of cards may get re shuffled.
Look forward to future exchanges , I don’t Envision a Either / Or World. A dynamic Mix appeals to me.
Thanks again Lawrence and best wishes
@ Laurence Coomber
Good evening , you look like you are having a Wonderful educating young Chinese Youth – International Collaboration
Wish you well with you Academy – the Re industry as well as any power sector needs properly trained and quality first oriented individuals.
Boom markets attract bottom feeders in every sector so lets hope the academy makes a contribution
As for China’s Wind issues what can you expect from a country where the government feeds all of its various cronies a piece of the action and the end result the central plans get under mined.
At least in the US we have a better process in place for transmission regualtions. Do we need more Transmission of course and there still are gaps in the process but developemnt is moving forward.
We have had some right wing Senators and congressmen impede approvals for transmission lines bringing clean good wind power from the Plains East into Tennessee and the South as the elected leaders were trying to protect their native dirty old coal interests. But the private sector developers are being persistent and now the Southern utilities are asking for the wind so the Coal Barons will have to back down their un economic positions as they are hurting their own.
china w figure it out one day.
What do you think about Nu Scale SMR co over here.?
later