Respect for Science
Here’s a T-shirt that communicates an important message.
Of course, one might think that the message is so obvious and irrefutable to 99% of the world’s people that it does not need to be communicated. But those living outside the U.S. have no idea what it’s like to live here, in a country many of whose leaders openly despise science. One of our presidential candidates says that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese, and he has the support of almost 40% of our voters. Yowza.
Nice shirt but white will be cooler as the temperatures get hotter. Yellow is the most visible color and would help us to not be hit by car drivers as we bicycle to work.
Mark Twain probably said something like this that was humorous.
Point well taken.
Is the assumption that intermittent sources of power are capable of providing adequate and reliable power the result of demanding evidence and thinking critically? It seems to me that that assumption is based mostly on faith instead.
@ Frank
That is cute in its own way and get your Point. However here are a couple of facts re that troubled intermittent wind power that shed new perspective perhaps on the growing role of Off shore Wind in the UK.
The London Array on the Estuary of the Thames river the largest Wind Farm there is has hit a Capacity Factor of 78.9 % in Dec. 2015
That is over usual gas in line with coal and at lower end of nukes usual operating range.Nukes get 90% most of the time .
The averages are usually in the 50 to 55 % capacity factor which is Strong and can be integrated with other technologies for firming up. Off shore category.
Basically it is G…D …GOOD In the Money!
So much in the money that developers are now working on the 5,000 Meg Hornsea Wind Farm and others to follow. UK will be exporting to France soon.
Pricing is coming down from around $110 per Megwatt hr to $ 90 range
compared to the uncertain that it will be built Hinckley Point Nuke estimated at $93 per Megawatt hr. (and climbing)
The Large wind developers in UK are planning on bringing new wind online in 2025 at $ 70 per megwatt hr So progress is comfortable at this point.
Perhaps it is Fair to say in the UK that Faith is in Action ! Its Blowing in the Wind !
take care
@ Silent,
I don’t completely understand you post. You wrote, “The London Array on the Estuary of the Thames river the largest Wind Farm there is has hit a Capacity Factor of 78.9 % in Dec. 2015.”
Without clarification, there is more than one way to interpret that. It could mean that during the isolated month of December 2015 the capacity faster was 78.9%, or it could mean that in December 2015 the capacity factor up to that date, which would include many months, was 78.9%.
According to several different sources, there have been periods several months long during which the capacity factor of UK off shore wind farms was lower than 10%.
The price per megawatt is difficult to evaluate. Often it is based on the name-plate rating rather than the actual amount of power generated over time which would result in a price several times as great. Also, it generally excludes the cost of expanding the grid and adding transmission lines so that the power can be accepted by the grid in places where the grid was not previously designed to accept power. When those factors are taken into account, wind does not generally compare favorably with nuclear.
That’s a great T-shirt.
It turns everybody’s attention to a very important subject, and challenges the world’s best and brightest young physicists, scientists, engineers and researchers to get cracking on technological power generation solutions to reverse greenhouse gas emissions as well as moving forward into the “abundant cost effective clean power for all people” era.
Mortimer J. Adler wrote “How to Read a Book” By all accounts he was a very intelligent and well read man. The book was a great find that I unfortunately did not discover until a Senior in school. I read the earlier 1930 edition which was rather intense but straight forward. He substantially revised the book and in the forward to the 1960’s edition remarked that there was some reading that is not done “critically.” One clear example he used were religious texts.
So “Demanding Evidence and Think Critically” both presumes and sets a standard that is not always applied. Even those in the field of science are not immune to dogma, authority worship and trying to fit in.
While a catchy slogan “Demand evidence and Think Critically” is in itself a kind of dogma that may not be right for all (especially interpersonal) situations. It seems to demand that we “Think Critically” about everything except the admonition to think critically.
Wow. That’s quite an analysis!
Unfortunately, while buried in the generality, I missed what may to some seem an obvious point. The atomic energy symbol seems to suggest that the the call to “Demand Evidence and Think Critically” is specific to atomic energy.
If that is the case, then the design might have been improved by making the symbol larger with the words superimposed. As an image, it seems to disappear at the top and is over-shadowed by the words.
With respect to the book, it was a real eye opener for me that I have recommended to many people, but especially students who need to read non-fiction.
Frank
To reply to your question to what I said and what is reality is the following.
The Name of the wind Farm is called London Array – but it is slightly off shore where the Thames flows into the N Sea.
The high capacity factor 78.9 % for this site in DEC 2015 is outstanding Think of all the carbon CO2 that did not go into the sky! The prices are great.
That Hinckley Point 1,400 meg nuke may not get built due to COSTS Projections that are higher then wind, solar and gas and others so the plant project is on on the Bubble! The EDF Union workers are shaky on the project as they think it could take EDF down and their livelihood my be at risk. the price is around $ 28 Billion or so right now which is very high compared to other generations sources. The Nuclear Jenie is very consistent in that it likes Cost Over Runs and Project over runs – that is the Nuclear genie MO the record. A big decision will be made in Nov. of this year by UK government = so stay tuned.
A cancellation will be a Big Blow to France, EDF, and the China Nuke co as well.
UK is moving forward with close to 7,000 more Megs of wind, they have more than 5,000 Megs now. Scotland has its own numbers which are significant as on some days Scotland produces over 112 % of total demand needs and exports south to UK.
The Take Home Point is Clear- The People with the Money have faith and technical confidence that the wind capacity factors will not be averaging 10 % ( that figure is an anomaly) or they never would have built the existing generation let alone plan on building the planned 7,000 New Megs. And more is in the concept stage. UK is blessed that they have large areas off shore where the N Sea depth is only 35 to 50 meters reasonably close to shore. So construction costs for wind towers that can be mounted to the sea bed are not too high. that is why the price keeps coming down.
No way nuke w get to 7 cents no way with CAPEX . Only after depreciation of CAPEX and running costs at 90% can they put out 3 cent power like Palo Verde in AZ. But it took a while to get there.
The average capacity factor in UK is the 50 to 55 % level which is great and I compared it to the gas, coal , nukes as well.
Again the Bottom Line is the Bankers the Funders they are buying it.
More Investment
They have built special ships that are similar to the ones that are used in the off shore Oil / Gas industry – more Faith More Investment.
Yes there have been some times in Europe when the wind was low and that has happened in US – Texas wind was 12 % off a year or two ago.
So weather can change but the normal ranges must be statistically reliable to Pass all Financial Risk assessments by the Funders.
Here is something to think about. In the most recent years most US Nukes have had a less than 2 % unplanned outage in the Peak Seasons (the summer). When we need the power , etc.
Last year – EIA data – Nukes fall to 10 % off line during the Summer Peak Demand season. So Nukes have their issues as well, much more than the industry and its boosters like to admit.
The money funders know this and this is the primary reason the industry has been in the doldrums for so long.
The only way for revival for the nuclear Genie is if these SMR’s and or Thorium Units can deliver as touted! The next 10 years will tell the Tale . Though India just ordered around 6 Westinghouse AP 1000 units.
But there again they are doubling down on wind and solar so it must be a working asset included in Resource Plans.
In Central to Eastern NM the large Tres Amigas interconnection station is now completed. Wind energy from NM is being Exported East and soon West to Cal market. The developers are signing PPA’s with Electric Utilities for $ 25 to $ 37 per megawatt hr. That is In the Money, cheap Power or the utilities would not be buying it!
Due to these market facts and many others Massive deployment of Solar and Wind and soon Tidal Energy in Europe and the US with some mixing in of gas for balancing is the Order of the day. The power market is Going GREEN at an increasing rate. But overall we are behind the Warming curve and we need more solutions .
Those are the technologies where the action is who is getting the Paid for Orders for generation. The marketplace is speaking and determining.
Hope this clears up things.
Silent,
The fact is that wind and solar power are INTERMITTENT. Except in special circumstances, that makes it impossible for wind and solar to replace fossil fuels.
As quickly as possible, we must reduce the use of fossil fuels to little more than zero. There is no proof that that is possible with wind and / or solar power. There are European countries which have committed themselves to completely phasing out nuclear and fossil fuel power, but none have succeeded in doing so despite their commitment. In fact, they have not even come close except for very brief intervals. Considering their commitment, they would have succeeded by now if it were possible.
France has come closer to being green than any other country except for those which have huge amounts of hydro power available. And, France has come closer to being green by expanding nuclear power from 0% to 80% for electricity in only 15 years, although it has since dropped to about 75% nuclear. Again, France has increased its percentage of green power faster than any country which has committed itself to wind and / or solar power.
Lots of interesting and relevant perspectives on wind vs solar here. Is the information from general reading, experience, specific reading, the telly?
Frank I appreciate your thoughts on the ongoing debate and your position that only nuclear can meet all of a modern nations load as Renewable s cant make the firm power to run Major economy etc.
Only time will tell but the market place is trending R E and the Nuclear Genie is still in the doldrums for the most part. France as you state has really hooked its economy to the nuclear genie and they had a nice run with it.
Today they are re examining things and have already decided on more of a mix of solar and Wind as their nuclear fleet is aging now. So they will not replace all of it with Nuclear.
The reasons are economic competitiveness of RE versus new Nukes. Maintenance costs for the nukes as they age are trending higher than projected just like the older nukes in the US which is causing non competitiveness with gas and wind domestically.
The French Nuclear Engr firm Arreva once the Worlds largest etc well its most recent plants have struggled and they are in serious lawsuits in the Billions$$ over 2 unfinished plants w cost over runs in France and one in Finland.
As I posted the large planned nukes for UK the Hinckley Point C project has a really high project cost estimate and the French Government owned Engr firm EDF is worried the risk of this plant may take them down So a time of Indecision for sure.
The multi nation Fusion research consortium in France is only 10 years behind with no end in sight – sound familiar as that atom energy quest has gone on for decades now! No end of the Tunnel in sight yet.
I dont follow France that much in my research and readings and interactions with other professionals in the business. But what I am posting is all true and from recent publications or work experience.
Breath on the Wind – publications like Energy Collective – The EU Energy – American Wind Energy Assoc. and Renewable Energy World are excellent sites. The articles they have have links that take one to a long list of websites for the entire industry. Energy and the Environment is a great one as it has 5 sectors with different names and focus. Utility Dive and Green Tech Media feature multi part stories and topics. Most of their content is domestic US
I worked in energy in multiple sectors during my technical business career before I became a consultant. Did work on wind farms in 5 states. Still have associates in Wind and Uranium Mining etc.
I respect Frank’s concerns – but my position on this is that I am for all the R E we can make period and slow down climate change. If nuke can find a way to compete then great but I am not waiting or holding my breath let someone else do that. I am very glad inside that RE wind and solar have made such major cost reductions. I started out in energy in 1978 and did pioneering work in the real hard days. In the late 1980’s the first wind turbines in the US were egg beaters sorta like. They were 100 to 250 kw and limited. Now the British and Siemens Corp. and Dong Energy from Netherlands are installing 7 megawatts on 1 pole. The cost curve is really tilting steeply downwards.
As I have stated this is in stark contrast to the continued cost increases for oil / gas new wells and ongoing struggles of the nuclear genie sector to control rising costs.
And Warren Buffet Co is building its first concrete tower batch plant so that the towers can be built on site. Reduce mobilization and transportation costs. Also they are going up to 110 to 120 meters. At this height the wind volume gain and CONSISTENCY goes up by 30 % over 85 and 95 meters heights which is where they are at now. So capacity factors could reach 50 % or more and this is for Inland Wind. Awesome! lowers the LCOE to below 2 cents a Kwhr.
So while the nuclear Genie may have real energy density advantages over wind. I recognize the point.
But the real point is that we don’t need it the density as much as we are led to believe as the improved wind efficiency is getting the results the economy needs. Batteries and Hydrogen hybrid wind units are on the drawing boards for the future.
One last point to prove that these wind and solar deniers should re examine their views. In Texas Wind energy in 2015 reduced the wholesale electric rates in Texas by $ 750 million per Texas ERCOT Grid operator. Their records. Wind meets 24 % of peak load as it is mostly off peak but does help with late or early evening peak demands.
So Frank trust this is informative .
Facts like this support and validate the efficacy of RE
Thanks once again Silent, I was already subscribed to 2 of the 3 sources you mentioned. I appreciate them all.
Breath on the Wind
Re sources you are welcome. There is so much information abounding in the Energy and Environmental sector. Just like the socio political sector.
We have no shortage of good information that is for sure.
Breath you wrote some very good technical and economic points on E V and I was trying to re find that posting but believe I deleted some of the various topics and that one was a mistake to delete . You mentioned that you have done work in that sector something to that effect.
If you still have and could re post perhaps to this topic on Science I would appreciate it.
In one of my SEIA / SEPA sites ( National solar associations) there is a posting that in 1st Qtr of 2017 GOP is going to propose a carbon tax and dividend program but they are going to use their strong opposition to the Clean Power Plan by Obama hostage. Gut the Clean Power Plan and you Environmentalists etc get your desired Carbon Tax.
That is interesting and we w have to see if that comes down the pike.
Its a shame that money has corrupted our legislative process and getting good clean Policy is very Elusive and difficult. There is always some bad trade offs. We will have to wait and see
Have a good day and thanks for good articulation on things !
S R
Silence, there is no need to “re-post” as you should be able to find what interests you in Craig’s archives. But I am at a bit of a loss. Your description of the comments is not enough. Perhaps you could narrow down the date.
You might find additional comments under https://answers.yahoo.com/dir/index/answer?sid=2115500148 where I think of myself as “king of the ant-hill.” The forum has gone down as the latest CEO modified yahoo to make it more economical. (She has seemed to have failed miserably while destroying the service.) I tried to switch over to quora but they did not appreciate the moniker.
I have also published more than 80 sometimes detailed articles (many on EV) most of which have been reprinted but one copy of which you might find through https://cleantechnica.com/author/breathonthewind/ Most articles tend to be somewhat detailed and more complex than the average web selection which is why I appreciate Craig’s ability to briefly introduce a subject in a way that encourages a wealth of diverse opinions.
Re your info on the carbon tax deal sounds like good news. If the GOP is willing to capitulate on a carbon tax I read that as their seeing it as a losing cause so they might as well bargain something for what they will lose anyway. Sometimes I think the GOP plays the DEMS as fools. Sometimes I think that they are.
@ Breath On wind
I will try to go back thru the different topics as the title was not EV but you made some great points there I will look.
As far as your comments on GOP playing DEMs I agree to a degree. But closing down the Clean Power Plan is not a real good trade off. The Clean Power Plan is the Hammer on the Wall in the marketplace.
If the Clean Power Plan stands it makes all utility executives make some long term decisions as they know that the cost to keep running the coal plants is going to cost them Big Dollars.
So it makes it more likely that the electric industry will close the coal plants on a schedule and replace them w RE and GAS or lil nukers if they ever get it together.
Take away the clean power plan and it makes it easy for the Carbon heads to drag out the coal usage and do more damage to the world environment. The carbon tax yes takes some money from burning the coal but they can live with that they get to keep burning it they have their industry still in place.
Take away Gerrymandering and the GOP would not be very viable period and DEMS would Play Hardball. But then maybe they would still miss their Moment as they have done some Lame things themselves . take care
If we are going to have a shot at reducing green house gasses we need the Clean Power Plan it will reduce the carbon at a level we need. And most utilities can live with it too.