Most Important Movements in Human History Begin with a Seminal Event
Looking back in time from our current-day perspective, most “movements” along the way are deemed to have started on a certain day, if only as an aid to those who try to make sense of these important turns in the course of history.
I’m reminded of this as the petroleum age is said to have begun 116 years ago today when an oil gusher erupted at Spindletop, just outside Beaumont, Texas. Coincidentally, it’s also the day in history (49 BCE) when Caesar crossed the Rubicon.
Similarly, we have Marx/Engels’ Manifesto and the onset of communism, Rosa Parks’ bus ride and the Civil Rights movement, Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring and the environmental movement, the advent of the birth-control pill and the sexual revolution, and the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi and the Arab Spring.
Yet not all eras in history are demarcated with a single event, e.g. the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the Industrial Revolution, and so this raises a couple of worthwhile questions:
Will there be one specific day that marks the tipping point in the migration to renewable energy that historians will commemorate as the dawn of a new age in the energy industry? Probably not.
More interestingly, will there be a single moment that galvanizes humankind in a collective, arm-in-arm battle against environmental devastation? While this is anyone’s guess, all people of kindness hope to see precisely such an event; we simply hope it’s not caused by a catastrophe.
Craig,
Today might also be the day when New York State decides it’s economic future.
One of the lynch pins of New York energy supply, nearly one-third of New York City’s demand, is to be shut down within 4 years. Governor Cuomo announced he has signed off on the necessary authorization to close the Indian Point Nuclear Facility.
To the cheers of anti-nuke activists, the Governor’s explanation that any lost supply would be met from increased wind generation and “conservation” .
Although it may sound as if our old buddy, Silent Running was serving as his chief advisor, the Governor is in possession of a multi-million dollar report with projection as to how this will be accomplished.
The Governor has ignored the fact that the same experts and advocates advised Germany and the EU that alternate energy would be sufficient to met their needs by 2014. This winter, Europe is forced to go cap in hand to buy extra Gas from Russia, re-open old coal plants and purchase LPG by the ship load.
Governor Cuomo is adamant that New York won’t build a new nuke, new coal plants, or more pipelines to carry natural gas from the verdant Pennsylvania Marcellus natural gas fields. He certainly won’t allow exploitation of upstate shale.
Ruling out conservation, no one serious believes NYC will use 30 percent less energy !
So it comes down to Wind Power. Indian Point produces power 24×7 on demand. To replace that sort of power, the state will need to increase wind power by 500% ! In addition, NY will need massive new distribution infrastructure, and some form of storage.
Governor Cumo seems to be gambling on his experts advice that in four years time battery technology will be ready to provide adequate storage.
This means storing more than 50 million kWh in batteries ! The world’s total battery production is about 35 million kWh !
That’s about $50 billion in addition to $ 12 billion in turbines and around maybe $90 billion in new infrastructure.
Despite the cost, the idea is technically impractical.
The sensible option would be to spend Instead, $2 billion building natural gas turbines, simply provide a few hundred million dollars of incentives to keep Indian Point on line for a couple more decades.
But no, these governor and his advisors will wait until NYC has power shortages, then leave the next Governor to authorize the use of existing under-utilized emergency dual-fuel power plants designed to burn either natural gas or oil.
Since gas pipeline capacity is at maximum, that means burning oil! Burning oil to replace just half the Indian Point shortfall(allowing more for more wind power)means buying, and burning 20 million more barrels of oil a year.
( Hmmm… maybe Governor Cuomo has found a way to tap into all the Hot Air generated by his Attorney-general 🙂
This is the sort of monumental bad planning, and expensive blunders that occur when policy is dictates by the wishful thinking of ideologues.
@ Sir marco
well you seem to be quite concerned and perhaps you should travel to NY and make a presentation Mate.
1. First of all – I would not recommend the course of Action that the Gov and his policy team are pursuing.
But Marco I do appreciate you giving me recognition as a Policy Generator but not this course sir.
2. I see the same pit falls that you point out. so you made good points.
3. Marco they are using subsidy to keep the other 3 plants open – perhaps that energy flows south to NY city to replace Indian Point ??? don’t know.
4. Perhaps you should check that out first before Pontificating that the Sky is going to Fall!
5. It has been reported several times that there are some operational issues with Indian Point and being so close to major population center and we must consider our new president elects safety ( LOL AKA ) as hehas residence in harms way or close to harms way – we would not want our tweeter in chief to suffer from over exposure or something….as he seems to be doing a hell of a job in over exposure with out any other issues NOW!
Marco I agree that they should expand a few pipelines from Macellus fields. some were planned 2 in fact all the way to Boston and along coast to Maine. Most of this got cancelled 6 or 8 months ago by Various NY and New England regulators , mixed decisions too.
yes then the gas would allow them to install more modern Gas turbines to back up the Wind , Conservation etc.
Get them off burning oil. Between burning oil and dependency on foreign LNG which they do now as pipeline capacity all the way thru is limiting the expansion of CC Gas and Fast start Turbines needed to back up Wind and solar, etc. A better plan would be using nearby domestic gas .
Actually their flawed plan will increase GHG in short or mid term and does not make good policy sense. The Laws of Un Intended Consequences Looms Huge. They need a better approach.
so in this arena Sir Marco we are in alignment.
but recognize that your beloved nuclear genies continue their long history of over costs adn early failure and underperformance. there are people in the state who all 4 plants closed.
The up state NY nukes provide lots of jobs in a depressed rural area so politics of jobs are helping to keep the plants open ( 3 ) via $ 12 Billion last quote of subsidies. but court filings have been made to this deal the gov made.
who knows???
NY politics are thick and Marco your point is well taken – Misguided Policy may lead to poor results for the region? ! !
Advise you not to be so Quick to the Draw before you know who the real or what the Real target is!!!
Truth Teller Silent Running
A general comment The people of N E area have a long history of not understanding the short and long term issues involved in sound energy policy . Over the years they have compromised policy with political decorations that have appeal but under perform. Their legacy Lives on!
Marco file a Amicus to the court !
Carry on
@ Marco
I meant to say NY should buy gas from Marsellus States as their current ban on Fracking in a water resource area is probably a smart move.
The out put of the Marsellus is greater than demand so just buy it from PA, Ohio, West Virginia and preserve their region until the future and see how technologies sort out and maybe the Ban can go on and on. So I do support the current ban on fracking in NY. Too sensitive there.
that part is good policy.
Take care