Small Wind Has No Future
I thought I would reproduce a conversation I’m having with an entrepreneur in small wind in the UK:
Entrepreneur: (My company is) based in the UK and UAE has designed an onshore wind turbine (15kW and 50kW) that has a wider wind envelope than all current turbines. With the patented technology, we’re looking for the investment to build two prototypes and to commercialize and market these turbines into the global market.
Craig: Thanks, Mark. What’s your take on the overall market demand for small wind?
Entrepreneur: The demand for small wind turbines will increase with increasing energy concerns. Small wind turbine usage has a large potential for growth, but is dependent on government incentives. The UK gov’t recently poisoned the ground somewhat with a fall in the tariffs paid to people but outside of the UK, demand appears to be increasing. The end-user cost is one of the most important factors affecting growth, while other factors that impact the development are rebate programmes, incentives and permit issues. Significant increases in China and Japan with several UK companies exporting to these countries.
Craig: I don’t see it, personally. Obviously, given enough subsidies, anything can work, but the unsubsidized end-user costs are absolutely terrible, and will never be competitive. My viewpoints are summed up here. You’ll note that I point to the non-scalability of small wind, and my colleague Glenn Doty (in a comment below the post) explains exactly why this is so.
I can only see these turbines proving attractive in windy remote areas off the grid where they are competing with small diesel generators e.g farms in places like the falkland islands.
They are also sometimes useful on sailing vessels for topping up the batteries.
Gary,
Currently sailing yachts generally have a generator which is driven by the same propeller which is used to power the boat via a Diesel engine when there is no wind or to improve maneuverability while docking. Just how useful a very small wind generator would be on a small sailing vessel I don’t know; probability it would depend on circumstances. When docked, they commonly are connected to shore power.
My late father had friends who owned sailing yachts and he often sailed with them, usually on the Great Lakes but sometimes in the Gulf of Mexico.
@ UK Entrepreneur:
Small Scale Wind (total generation solution) technology (25 – 100 KW) has a very bright commercial future globally but not in its current expensive ‘big wind’ design format, and only for use in new format (small scale wind – specific purpose) situations.
The key issue impacting many small scale wind technology designs that we see around us, is that they inherited all of the negative aspects, limitations, and high cost inefficiencies that exist in big wind through its design. High cost wind design technology has finally been recognised as commercially non-viable in the longer term and therefore unsustainable in the post FIT and heavily taxpayer subsidized era.
Traditional design small scale wind technology by extension therefore cannot reasonably be justified in the inventory of small generation plant project spreadsheets.
Purpose designed small scale (total generation solution) low cost wind technology though is a completely different commercial reality story though, and definitely has immediate appeal for end users globally.
Traditional small scale wind technology failed to establish its own research and development design pathway as a technology independent from those principles and concepts embodied in big wind. Understandably so perhaps, but nevertheless big wind was conceived and developed in an overly generous subsidy frenzy and was never destined to become commercially viable despite amazing sleight of hand and subterfuge by all and sundry involved in the global wind industry, including manufacturers, suppliers, and end users.
In my daily work in the RE industry though, I see practical specific purpose opportunities everywhere for new format small scale wind (total generation solution) technology (25 – 100 KW).
Although I have been involved in some traditional design 50 KW wind projects in Bangladesh and elsewhere throughout Asia with a partner inverter manufacturer, I don’t retreat from my observations over several years now that these projects always lacked experienced and skilful engineering analysis and due diligence by the systems purchasers.
Conclusion: Mr UK Entrepreneur, insulate yourself from an inevitable negative commercial reality heading your way – by focussing on three key points:
(1) A new format design for a small scale wind technology (25 – 100 KW) for specific purpose situations;
(2) The new format design advantage is that ‘low cost’ + ‘smart and fully featured TOTAL generation plant solutions’ thinking should underpin the design process from the outset and abandon adopting an ‘integrator’ mentality only during the system design process;
(3) Create your companies ‘point of difference’ in your technology design outcomes, and importantly ADD value to your total solution.
Good luck with your endeavours. There is a large customer base globally for new small scale wind (total generation solution) technology.
Lawrence Coomber