Building-Integrated PV Coming Into Fashion
Here’s a good demonstration of the power of marketing. Building-integrated PV has been around for decades, and now there are hundreds of different variations on the theme on display at the large shows like Solar Power International and Intersolar. Yet, until now, the subject has remained arcane.
All of a sudden Elon Musk comes along, talks about it, and it’s all over Facebook. The dude has “success” written all over him, so much so that all he has to do is endorse a technology and it’s mainstream news overnight.
I learned the hard way not to mess with Musk; I wrote an article for another blog site years ago that prognosticated failure for a couple of his ventures, both of which are now household words. Anyone who bets against him at this point is an idiot.
@ Craig yes you make a good point about how he has made some Big Hits ….for sure..
But Craig I will be contrarian with some market reality His Tesla and now his Solar City combined companies are still in the RED. Its over $ 7 billion now and counting. 2016 numbers from Green Tech media and others.
The solar shingles which is his BIPV product is a great concept but the market place is littered with the ashes of some good players who got burned with roof shingles that burned roofs !! Wala!
Dow Corning and their failed POWER HOUSE CONCEPT AFTER 4 YEARS CLOSED IT DOWN LAST YEAR.
The BIPV is the Holy grail for solar beyond batteries to a certain degree. Personally I am all for it and a big cheer leader for trying but the pathways are steep due to the Physics and detail involved. Hopefully Musk can make it work.
Solar City sales curve has been flattening out as they have expanded into states where full retail net metering which subsidizes solar at the expense of lower income and renting and non solar customers is being reduced or is not in place. Market blow back has begun and PUC’s Utility commissions are scaling it back.
This changes the economics and value proposition for higher cost providers like Solar city. it is making sales slower and this is spreading . Retrofits are tough economics in certain markets. They did not make money at $ 4 per watt and now the average price is around $ 2.90 per watt f residential solar Dg. So the cost pressure is on.
So there is much real work to do for Musk and crew and it is in the market place and not at Self Affirmation Society’s TED talk like gatherings. Time for REAL Work not Razzle Dazzle Power Pt videos!! .
I am not challenging your words about betting against him but I
would not bet heavy right now.
Here is a tip Craig, 2016 saw a major shift from Residential solar DG to Utility Scale and Community Scale solar for a multitude of market based reasons. Latest SEIA sales data say close to 70 % of all solar is the larger scale and not solar dg.
This trend will continue in the near term per the market watchers. Utilities want to OWN Solar so they can earn a rate base rate of return before all the meters slow down!
Solar city is not a market leader in Utility scale and the leader just laid off 25 % of its work force???
So now we see if Musk is a Real Navigator of Real markets not distorted markets.
So it is Imperative for MUSK to overcome what DOW Corning could not overcome and get new home builders to incorporate his solar tiles into New Homes and reduce the cost of sales and customer acquisition by over 40 % to make it GO. The other soft costs have come down at a good rate but customer gaining – sales has not in fact it is going up due to most of the early adopters having bought and the new buyers are in states where the value proposition for retrofits is not as attractive as in Cal or NY, NV etc or other places with heavy subsidies and market distortions.
The economics of adding solar into a 30 year mortgage makes great economics for the home buyer. That is the Sweet Spot but getting that to happen…..??? so lets see Musk crack that target it would be a game changer as you say.
I like them too but thought I would share some market facts. Externals and Internals are changing.
Lets see where it goes Interesting Times we are in…. take care
Interesting times, to say the very least.
BTW, I know there is a huge increase in utility-scale solar, but as price/Watt continues to fall, the contemporaneous trend toward rooftop solar is not likely to abate.
If you are thinking of the solar roof offering as a type of solar panel with a cost equal to existing solar panels then this may not be very exciting.
But if you consider the prospective homeowner who has a worn out roof contemplating what kind of a covering they want to use as a replacement and the solar option will cost no more than a standard roof the economics appear favorable.
If you consider that many homeowners will need to first re-roof their homes before adding traditional solar panels this kind of option, if it can be installed with the promised pricing is a clearly preferable one step option.
To detract there may be some issue with weight. A roof support structure must be designed to handle the weight load of a slate roof. If these glass tiles are substantially heavier than a tar shingle roof this may limit the marketability.
While the tiles may be able to support the weight of a person, glass tends to be a slippery substance. Installers may advise against a product that increases the chance of an accident or they may tend to charge more.
I understand the weight is around half that of concrete pan tiles, or slate, so should not be a weight problem with replacing those.
Another consideration is that it was typical and code to install one tar roof over another. Life expectancy of tar roof shingles has been rising over time so that it is not unusual to see a 50 year warranty. The life of a slate roof depends upon the quality of the tile and the presence of acid rain. I would expect the life of this “glass roof” to be similar to slate eventually leaving someone with the prospect of replacing an intact roof due to end of the useful life for the PV aspect.
Before I installed a glass roof though I might want to also inquire how much hail it can resist.
Per Gary’s comment – the weight of these tiles will not be a issue in most cases.
The Pathway to success is getting the solar tile specified into the Master Design for major Home builders who want to offer built in solar in their new home product offering.
The level of success that they have in getting builders to do this and incorporate the necessary related wiring , etc. into their building plans will determine the viability of the entire market effort It is pretty cut and dry.
Weight may be a issue compared to what they are doing now but that depends on each builders current roof loading specs they use now? There may be a incremental cost to add into the roof cost stack.
The point could be Moot as the weight of the tiles may not be greater? Solar City has not published that spec and weight so let s see what they have.
The bigger issue is the increased heat levels that previous solar roof shingles generated. This added heat retention and lack of cooling off for the solar shingles created other issues and detracted from the solar shingles performance thus the many market failures over the past 8 years or so.
Dow Corning is a big player and they did not over come this ???So that is where the technical challenge lies.
It is pretty basic – it would be wonderful if they overcome the heat issue and these tiles work.
The economics of burying solar into a mortgage are real strong incentives for consumers and they should give them a 25 yr roof that reduces costs and pays for its replacement with reduced utility costs.
It over comes many of the issues faced by Solar co trying to retrofit existing roofs as the net market for such applications is fraught with hidden costs and many obstacles.
Thus high customer acquisition costs like 40 % of the total costs for a system sale. National published numbers folks.
That is why niche markets like ranches and farms that are served by higher KWHR cost Electric Cooperatives make the economics work better and shorten payback and improve ROI. Also one can design simple Terrace type structures and place the solar panels on them and avoid getting into all the existing roof issues. Like roof age, condition, weight loads, orientation issues etc. etc.
Wish solar City all the Best as they are attacking a potentially huge game changer market as Craig alluded to in his Posting.
take care