A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Environmental Catastrophe
Even with all the ignorance and indifference to human suffering that are the hallmarks of the current administration here in the U.S., economics appears to be winning the day, ushering in massive amounts of wind energy at the expense of coal.
That’s the reason economics is sometimes referred to as “the mother discipline, ” i.e., nothing else really matters with regard to the proliferation or demise of a certain technology.
From the introduction to Bullish on Renewable Energy:
I’m reminded of the econ 101 class I took freshman year, where our professor lovingly referred to economics as the “mother discipline,” meaning, of course, that this is the arena in which all practical concerns are resolved. “In what field do you plan to major, Mr. Shields?” he called on me at random the first week of class, startling me slightly. “Ah, physics, sir,” I responded. “Splendid, Mr. Shields. I’m sure that, at some point in your life, you’ll contribute some excellent new ideas to that fascinating subject. But do you know what will determine whether those ideas ever see the light of day in the real world, outside your office walls?” I simply nodded and smiled. He had made his point without the need for either of us to verbalize the answer to his question.
Of course, if there are additional pressures in favor of a certain area of commerce, e.g., people’s interest in doing the right thing, so much the better. But ironically, clean energy is going to prosper regardless of our civilization’s regrettable lack of concern for saving itself from environmental ruin.
The problem is that wind and solar systems, and especially wind systems, will hit a wall beyond which it will be impossible to increase the percent of power which they can deliver at an acceptable cost. It has not been demonstrated possible for most prosperous countries to break through that wall unless they are fortunate to have considerable hydro power resources available.
Frank we love to speculate about limits. A few years ago the theoretical maximum efficiency of solar PV cells was around 22%. The next time I noticed the figure had crept up to about 27%. But now we have bench tests of cells at about that level with the theoretical maximum efficiency up to around 33%.
We can say the same thing about battery energy density, cost, recharge times and life expectancy. Together these things create an energy system with storage. We can substitute wind energy and stabilize that system. Tesla has now completed several grid level storage facilities and recently offered to build 100 MW of storage in Australia.
At a recent forum for grid level storage the biggest problem was the 50 state regulatory environment and the un-sustainable low price of natural gas, not technical solutions, not efficiency, not cost.
Beyond this to suggest anything is “impossible” seems to propose a world devoid of solutions. That seems like an un-sustainable harsh call.