U.S. History Is about To Take a Dramatic Turn
I think most of us in the Western world have played the game “Monopoly” and can vividly remember how these wonderful games end, i.e., with two great forces pushing against one another until some combination of luck and skill results in one’s triumphing over the other. That’s essentially what’s happening in the United States today.
With our president’s equating the evil of the Nazis with that of the counter-protesters in Charlottesville, and now pardoning Joe Arpaio, former Sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, Trump has told us that there are precisely two sides to this battle: that of hate, violence and lawlessness, fighting against that of the sense of decency and justice held by the majority of Americans–and he seems to be suggesting that this may not end peacefully.
Arpaio gained nationwide attention for defying court orders to cease his extrajudicial crackdown on illegal immigration, terrorizing entire towns, and shuffling people off to his tent city internment facility (pictured) in the blazing desert sun (which he fondly referred to as his “own concentration camp”). If it weren’t for the pardon, his criminal contempt conviction a few weeks ago would have cost him six months in jail, on the basis that he knowingly violated a federal judge’s order in 2011.
By pardoning Arpaio, Trump has signaled three important things:
• He’s willing to take any position, regardless of how morally bankrupt, that will appeal to his dwindling support base, in order to preserve his rapidly imploding presidency
• We no longer live in a land ruled by any law that doesn’t align with Trump’s personal preferences, and
• In the very likely event that Trump comes under legal fire stemming from the Mueller investigation, those who support him can expect to be pardoned for any crimes they commit on his behalf.
How far will this go? No one knows, but I introduced this post with a reference to the no-holds-barred end-game of Monopoly to draw the analogy that I see taking place here. Here’s what I predict will happen over the next few months:
Whatever happens with the Mueller investigation will be on the table shortly. Even in the improbable event that this is essentially good news for Trump, it’s only a matter of time before he crosses more lines with his astounding and ongoing torrent of stupid and hateful words and actions.
The chorus of public opinion, headlined by the CEOs of the nation’s largest companies, will grow over the coming weeks until it becomes deafening. Remember this: unlike our spineless elected officials, the top people in business didn’t get where they are without a great deal of integrity, hard word, and backbone–and they’re clearly aligning to put an end to the insanity and national embarrassment they see unfolding in front of them.
And speaking of backbone, you’re not going to find stronger people who stand behind their convictions with more intensity than the top people in the U.S. military. Regardless of your moral position on war, these people deserve the respect due to the toughest of people who live every moment of their lives knowing exactly what it means to be dedicated to a cause. I sit in my office in Santa Barbara writing blog posts and an occasional book supporting a movement; soldiers risk their lives to defend a country whose 317 million people count on their bravery every single day.
Though it’s hard to know why this hasn’t happened yet, Trump will eventually push the U.S. citizenry, its captains of industry, and the legislative branch of the federal government to the point at which they can no longer tolerate this onslaught against the American values of honesty and decency. There are still people alive who served in WWII, fighting the Nazis. One of them, 93 years old, who was featured on a radio show this week, will be pushing his wheelchair around this weekend in a protest against the present-day Nazi’s with their swastikas and leaden batons. In the raspy voice of a man who has lived so long and fought through so much, he said, “I lost my parents and eight siblings in the concentration camps. While I march, I will see their spirits marching in front of me.”
When it’s clear that the country won’t accept this any longer, the U.S. Congress will flip against Trump en masse in a very short period of time. Even those at the furthest right edge of the spectrum will distance themselves from this lunacy. Many of them have been planning since November 8, 2016 as to how they will address this moment should it come, and as soon as they see that their only politically viable option is supporting the impeachment proceedings that are already underway, Trump’s days in the White House will be measured in days, or weeks at the outside.
Here’s where it gets interesting. We all remember the smooth transition based on rule of law that we saw in 1974 when legal pressure against the sitting president caused Richard Nixon to resign in disgrace rather than face expulsion from office and criminal prosecution. What incendiary talk-show host and former Trump advisor Roger Stone said this week could very possibly be correct: the White Nationalists are heavily armed, and Trump will encourage them to do the only thing that they do well: beat people up. It’s very credible that we’ll see internecine violence on a scale that hasn’t happened here since 1865, since the only inference these people will be capable of drawing is that a duly-elected president of the U.S. who loves the white race as much as God does Himself is being deposed by those who hate the America they know.
The end-game will feature these people’s scaling up their incredible acts of hate and violence from the levels we have already seen. Two weeks ago it would have been hard to imagine one of them plowing his car into a crowd of people. Multiply that by a factor of a thousand or so.
But the player who entered the end-game with hotels on Boardwalk and Park Place will eventually win. That’s the U.S. military, who will flip against the U.S. president for the right reasons, just as quickly as the congress did for the wrong reasons, i.e., to protect the cushy jobs of trading political favors for cold hard cash. A few hundred thousand hateful morons with rifles won’t last too long against the U.S. armed forces, who will come in quickly to put a hard stop on those who stand against the rule of law that they’ve sworn to protect.
Sadly, that won’t truly end this horrific period in U.S. history. Those of us who’ve played more than a few games of Monopoly know that these encounters can end with some level of bad blood–even among friends sitting amiably around a simple board game. The aftermath of this military exercise can only be expected to be many orders of magnitude worse. Many millions of good people will work feverishly to diffuse what will have been an actual Civil War, albeit a short one, but all their attempts at detente will mean very little to the folks who lost their dirty little skirmish.
Nor will it do anything to redeem the 45th U.S. president, who will live in infamy as the very worst thing ever to befall this great nation.
@Craig
Correct. And what you have identified metaphorically might also apply directly to the energy technology industry Craig. Do you remember that industry? That’s the one where modern (or modernising) nations promote cutting edge energy science research and development studies and skill building in their academic and research institutions and corporations, like Westinghouse for example.
A recent excellent article doing the rounds, reminds us that both national industrialization and the reverse, de-industrialization are energy centric but with entirely different energy generation imperatives being the focus.
It is also evident that of the two scenarios; national industrialisation sets a more exciting and optimistic momentum in train from an emerging generation technologies research and development perspective than the alternative prospects of de-industrialization and future energy tech imperatives.
An example that illustrates this might be emerging African or Asian nations and their obvious energy imperatives, verses a shrinking North American economy and their resultant energy imperatives. They are necessarily and understandably different.
So what might this difference look like in practice?
Well foremost might be an entirely different (and necessary) perspective about the relevance of those bonds that bind us to the current renewable energy paradigm that has been embraced globally with near hysterical fervour at times, through the recognition and acceptance that future global clean energy generation imperatives for industrialising nations cannot be satisfied by renewable energy technologies.
Equally important might be that a future prosperous and “equal opportunity for all people” world (which is a critical global aspiration in modern thinking) is only possible by affordable access and availability by all peoples to ‘huge energy generation’ to power new age energy intensive industries; and industrial modernising technologies and opportunities.
An emerging global ‘push back’ counterbalancing renewable energy technologies seems to be quietly gathering momentum already; and a lesson we can take from the history of human technological endeavour over several centuries hitherto, is that in general terms there can ultimately only be one winner in any technology type.
A recent article published in the highly regarded South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) 19/08/2017 by US correspondent Robert Delaney headed, “Nuclear Renaissance – China is set to make an emphatic statement in clean power generation as it prepares to commission its revolutionary AP1000 reactor in Sanmen”, provides a compelling insight and analysis into the key ingredients of this subject, and in this we might see some important and irreversible signposts showing us the future routes to consider, and perhaps learn from.
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2107354/china-pips-us-race-start-worlds-most-advanced-nuclear-power-plant
Lawrence Coomber
Do I remember the energy technology industry? That’s a strange remark, even for you.
LOL.
Craig yes of course we all REMEMBER the US Energy Technology industry; but not all of us have totally FORGOTTEN thinking about its future.
Lawrence Coomber
Lawrence,
One of the many ticking time bombs for future generations, is how to dispose of all those obsolete solar panels ?
Solar Panels are very toxic and extremely difficult, if not impossible, to recycle or contain without considerable environmental hazard.
No one seems to be addressing this issue. Anyone who raises the problem of solar waste pollution is immediately attacked by RE enthusiasts.
But the issue is remains serious. Perhaps not to our generation, but certainly for our children and grand children. The explosion of cheap and toxic solar panels sourced primarily from the PRC and subsidized by Western taxpayers, will become an enormous economic and environmental nightmare starting in less than 20 years.
So far, no provision has been made for the disposal of these panels. Once again the taxpayer will be asked to pay for the disposal. (Cheap energy won’t seem so cheap or so clean).
A Thorium nuclear plant can efficiently produce more power than 1 million panels, operate for over 100 years, and produce less than 10 cubic metres of waste in that time.
Thorium nuclear waste has a life of 150 t0 250 years, whereas the waste from Solar panels has a projected life of infinitude !
Yet, even though this is a looming problem, you won’t hear RE advocates like Craig, and his posse of RE advocates, addressing the issue.
Craig,
Sheriff Joe Arpaio was always a disaster for his county, State and the USA. But he isn’t solely to blame. Arpario didn’t operate in secret, or in a vacuum. Those citizens who kept electing this vicious old bully must also accept a measure of guilt for his actions.
A Presidential Pardon for such a national disgrace, (even though at eighty five it’s unlikely he’d ever serve a day in goal), is a serious error by President Trump.
The use of Presidential pardons is constitutionally the sole prerogative of the President. Nothing in the constitution requires hum to justify or even explain the reason behind the pardon. In recent times, it’s been used more sparingly and only after careful consultation and scrutiny.
Why would the President undertake such a politically risky and provocative action ?
In my opinion, the President, the media and the Presidents opponent are locked in a never ending campaign cycle.
Political behaviour has reverted to the 19th or even 18th century.
Goading and relentless abuse against the President has become a national sport ! It’s reach a fever pitch. The situation has become so extreme that when sitting Democrat politicians advocate assassinating the President and his family, their views are applauded and excused by mainstream media.
President Trump’s feisty nature means he often takes the bait and responds by attacking his opponents in kind. His responses are often unwise and inept which only fuels even more distortions and hysterical abuse from his opponents.
US Outrage and hysteria has replaced normal political discourse.
A Major part of the problem is the President lacks wise advisors from an experienced political party. ( Trump is only nominally a Republican ). President Trump isn’t sufficient experienced in public life to understand the long term ramifications of his actions.
Even when he’s right, his awkward style of communicating leaves him open to attack,and when this occurs he continues attacking, unlike the carefully controlled part-machine spin-doctored politicians the media and the public have grown accustomed.
The present situation is the downside of all directly elected Executive Presidential systems of government. The President’s mandate is constitutionally guaranteed to be the prerogative of the electorate.
Congress can only impeach or remove a sitting President on very strict and narrowly defined grounds. Trump certainly hasn’t reached that stage.
In a Westminster system, (especially Constitutional Monarchies), these problems are far simpler. Once the leader loses the confidence of the majority of parliamentarians, or even a majority of his own party, he’s (or she) are immediately replaced.
The US will face four more years of internal conflict unless one of two things happens ;
1 ) The unlikely possibility of the liberal left toning down the rhetoric and the President and administration responding accordingly.
2) The President learning from mistakes, demonstrating his administration is effective and ignores being beleaguered by the media and opponents. It’s obvious neither the media, nor President has stopped being in campaign mode.
It’s true the attacks on the President have been unprecedentedly relentless. He wasn’t accorded the normal period of grace granted an incoming inexperience President.
Partly, this is his own fault. As a Corporate CEO he’s been used to having an idea, making a decision and working out the details during implementation. This doesn’t work in politics.
The political process is far more complicated. Even the most experienced politicians find the process of developing an idea, analyzing the complications of implementation, then selling the program to the voters,congress and the bureaucracy, very difficult. Which is why most politicians simply latch on to popular ideas and become their spokesman.
All the heavy lifting has been done by the skilled lobbyists representing special interest groups.
As a candidate Trump never really connected with any of those special interest groups. That’s the huge mistake made by traditional media and political observers. He really doesn’t fit in to any previous category. Like many populists, the very independence that made them effective campaigners, makes populists disastrous administrators and leaders.
Trump played media hype to become President. He’s now a prisoner of his own success. The media is addicted to the sensationalist news he generates, and he’s become addicted to media attention.
In the end, the next four years will be about his capacity to mature in the job, and become more thoughtful. At times he’s shown great promise.
Charlottesville was inept and bungled but the reaction was also over the top, and gained the President some sympathy.
Supporting and pardoning Joe Arpaio is a bad day. It’s an necessary taunt to his enemies and will only gain applause from the worst of his supporters.
Politically, with one unnecessary action, Trump has confirmed the worst fears among his opponents and even some moderate supporters, as to flaws in his character.
Donald Trump isn’t really a bigot, he’s certainly not racially prejudiced toward individuals. I believe he’s insensitive and lacks thoughtfulness of how hurtful his remarks are to those he hasn’t met.
Those who know him say he’s kind, generous and thoughtful when he meets people. In his personal circles he forms friendships with people from all backgrounds, races and religions.
His insensitivity is more typical of an older generation of American who are prejudiced against stereotypes, but not individuals.
This kind of mentality can be a asset in business, but in public life it’s a real handicap.
The President really needs better advisors. America needs a better advised President. Fortunately, this process seems to be occurring as the more radical personalities depart the White house inner circle.
This isn’t a good development.
Craig, in relation to your fear of armed insurrection. The US military are sworn to uphold the constitution and have no role in removing any politician or undertaking any covert or overt military involvement in politics.
Any fears you have of an ultra-right militia uprising would be swiftly dealt with by State and Federal law enforcement agencies, without any recourse to the military or even national guard.
I agree with most of this, a moment to be celebrated in and of itself. 🙂
I wouldn’t call Trump-bashing a national “sport,” because that implies something recreational, whose outcome has no real impact on human life. This is neither. Speaking for most of us, it’s no fun having a president behave so disgracefully and causing so much damage to so many people on a daily basis that the most of the country is desperate to remove him from office. We want him gone. Right now.
As I learned this morning, it appears that the Arpaio pardon actually is an impeachable offense, on grounds that I hadn’t previously understood: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/08/trump_s_pardon_of_joe_arpaio_is_an_impeachable_offense.html. Whether this will go anywhere in another matter, of course.
Craig,
Let me make one thing clear, Professor Frank Bowman is a far more learned lawyer than my comparative meager ability, and vastly better qualified to debate the academic nuances of US Constitutional Law.
However, with great trepidation, I would venture a contrary opinion. I think Professor Bowman has confused the founding father version of a Presidential Pardon with modern practice.
The form of Presidential pardons allowed in the Constitution followed a type of Royal Pardon which had previously existed in Colonial Constitutions.
This type of Pardon is not reversal of any discussion or sentence. It does not remove guilt. A Presidential pardon simply means ‘forgiveness’ of any offense and removes all penalties, prosecution civil or criminal.
It’s not the type of European Royal Pardon, which removed guilt and by the Monarch’s grace reversed all previous findings. That sort of Pardon fell of use in Britain with Henry the Eighth, and was well out of use in British Colonies by 1776. (Although still practiced in Europe).
Professor Bowman’s argument is therefore pretty shaky and I don’t think his view would be upheld by the US Supreme Court who would look at the very definite intention of the founding fathers to reserve the power of Presidential Pardon’s to the President alone and unfettered.
The Supreme Court would find the Constitution is silent concerning misuse, and that implies the President can’t ‘misuse’ the power of pardon, since his is the only valid authority.
I would argue, it would need a retrospective constitutional amendment, not just an act of Congress to limit this power, and make it grounds for impeachment.
But, that’s just my view, however it’s based on the writings of Thomas Jefferson who wrote the clause in the Constitution.
The real test is the 1915 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Burdick v. United States, which spelled out ” a pardon carries an imputation of guilt and acceptance of a pardon carries a confession of guilt”.
Craig,
I do agree with much of what you write here, obviously… but on a lighter note, you really need to sit down with a group and play some modern board games.
Monopoly is a terrible board game. It takes forever, the winner is almost exclusively determined by luck, and decisive advantage is gained early (again through luck) and never really lost.
I’d advise going to a local game shop and just sampling some of the games there, either with friends or just ask to join a group.
Try something like “Terra Mystica”, “Seven Wonders”, “Five Tribes”, “Tzolkin”, “Civilization, Through the Ages”, or last year’s best game: “Scythe”… You’ll have fun every second as your mind melts trying to keep pace with the shifting board dynamics and various goals and win possibilities, and you really won’t know who wins until the game is over and the scores are counted.
🙂
Or, if you really want to play a GAME, get “Pandemic Legacy”. It will take between 12 and 24 rounds with the same group to get through, so you’ll have to set a weekly or monthly appointment, but that is the most exciting game ever made. It’s a coop game, so you play as a team against the scenario, and you all win or you all lose.
Anyway, the board game renaissance began over a decade ago, with “Settlers of Catan”… We have tens of thousands of games today that are more fun than Monopoly.
😉
Looking at my reply above, I can’t believe that I left out “Caverna”, “Lord’s of Waterdeep”, “Castles of the Mad King Ludwick”, “Mysterium”, “Dominion”, “Carcasonne”…
I’ll have to really put together a prioritized list of my favorite 20-30 games. It’s hard to bring them to mind, especially if they are owned by friends and I haven’t played them in a while.
There are many things that keep me motivated to press on with my writings here at 2GE, one of which is to find a subject that you don’t know anything about. It hasn’t happened yet, but it could. 🙂
LOL!
Anything remotely related to non-olympic sports (other than figure skating and gymnastics) or gossip will stump me. There’s plenty of other subjects, but those two very broad subject fields are almost perfectly unknown to me.
Much of pop culture outside of nerd culture is a blank slate for me as well.
🙂
LOL. I feel a lot more optimistic about everything after digging a bit deeper into Glenn’s illuminating comments, which certainly have influenced the way I see all things now. Everyone can relax – we are definitely in good hands. LOL
Lawrence Coomber