From Gary Tulie: The Tesla Truck and Its Value Proposition in Europe
2GreenEnergy super-supporter Gary Tulie sent me this very interesting piece from his home office in Buckinghamshire, England, in which he analyzes the value that the Tesla electric truck offers its owner. I thought readers would find it interesting.
Interesting info – thanks to Gary!
Gary,
Thank you for posting your thoughts.
I also really appreciate the acknowledgement your analysis (like many similar) is based on a number of assumptions.
As companies like the UK based Tanfield Group plc, (of which I was a shareholder) discovered, just producing a relatively successful EV Truck isn’t enough to be commercially viable.
Tanfield was forced to close the venerable (est 1920) Smith Electric Vehicles UK Ltd and Smith Technologies Ltd (Europe) in 2012.
Smith Electric Vehicles USA is still operating out of Kansas City, although the business main income is derived from servicing diesel vehicles and raising money for EV development. To it’s credit it has sold a few hundred vehicles over 10 years.
Navistar, Volvo, Daimler, GM etc have all announced spectacular plans for Electric heavy vehicles, but although many advanced prototypes have appeared, non have been put into commercial production.
But that doesn’t stop and over excited media hype at each new announcement, or enthusiasts with optimistic predictions.
So, what’s wrong ? Why are all the expectations unfulfilled ?
The simple answer is the ESD technology remains inadequate. Just as ‘on paper’ back in 2003-2012, enthusiasts could ‘prove’ EV “commuter” vehicles would be a smash hit if manufactured, EV trucks find reality very different.
The EV low range commuter vehicle failed, while even the best commuter EV, supported by heavy government subsidies struggles to stay in existence. Nissan’s Leaf continues to lose money and only exists due to the courage and commitment of Carlos Ghosn.
In the real world, EV trucks experience problems not envisioned in any theoretical cost comparison.
Commercial diesel is available in the UK for £ 1.01 per litre, not £ 1.25 and the dearth of buyers willing to purchase much depleted batteries liable for expensive replacement affecting the used value.
In addition, real world performance is altered dramatically by issues such as gradients, weather, variable loads, speed, overloading, refueling logistics and a myriad of other problems. For vehicles with regular routes and predictable loads, some of these issues are lessened, but become a consideration in determining the used price.
Reliability and speed of delivery are very important factors are prime considerations in heavy transport. Price is less of a consideration than reliability.
‘On paper’, theoretical costings for EV commercials, (especially light, urban based commercials) should be irrefutable, but as any manufacturer will tell you, real world experience proves the opposite.
Without massive government subsidies, or a sudden, prolonged and dramatic increase in the price of diesel, EV commercials will struggle in the market. (at least until new advanced and dramatically improved ESD technology is developed).
But don’t let my pessimism lessen your enthusiasm for EV progress, it will happen, just not that quickly.