Tariff on Imported Solar Panels
Insofar as the renewable energy universe is abuzz with the president’s slapping a 30% tariff on silicon-based solar panels coming into the U.S., I thought I’d offer a few comments vis-a-vis the effects this will have on the industry:
• The resulting increase in consumer prices will reduce the size and number of solar installations in the U.S.
• This will put approximately 23,000 people out of work, according to industry groups, as about 80% of U.S. jobs in solar are associated with installing/implementing (only 14% are in manufacturing). Keep in mind that the solar industry is already much larger than coal. Thus this is a move that will result in a net loss of jobs, i.e., putting solar employees out of work while protecting the jobs of coal workers, which, regardless of one’s standard, is indefensible.
• A 30% tariff that lasts only four years is not enough to stimulate manufacturing here in the U.S., as companies in China and South Korea have a huge head start that will not remotely be affected by this decision.
• Nor will China and South Korea be damaged economically, as they’ll immediately turn their sales focus elsewhere; markets are now growing rapidly in India, Pakistan, the Middle East, Latin America and Northern Africa, so there is no shortage of alternative customers. As frequent contributor Gary Tulie points out, “True, the USA remains significant but is in no way a dominant player in solar installation.” Gary continues, “My guess is China may substantially boost panel exports to Mexico – effectively entering the USA by the back door. The panels would be installed in Mexico, but displace electricity currently generated in the USA, or even export power to the southern states.”
• The reduction of solar installations will, of course, slow the migration away from fossil fuels in the direction of clean energy. Stemming the erosion of fossil fuels by attacking renewable energy is the only possible explanation for the decision.
• The tariff is likely to start a trade war whose effects cannot be determined at this time; neither China and South Korea are extremely likely to ignore this decision in their own policy-making. Thus even more Americans will suffer as a result, though it’s currently impossible to say who and how many they are.
• If you’re looking for a bright spot and you happen to own stock in First Solar (whose products are based on cadmium telluride rather than polysilicon), your boys will enjoy a short-term shot in the arm.
• Another bright spot–this one for those who don’t care about the environment and human health: the fossil fuel industry, which loves to see any delay in the development of renewables. There’s a meme circulating on Facebook that contains a less-than-uncharitable interpretation of the purpose of the tariff: “It sure must be nice for the oil companies to have the ex-chairman/CEO of ExxonMobil in the highest cabinet position.” I’m not sure this is completely fair, but it’s food for thought.
As usual, this directive is aimed at making ignorant people stand up and cheer their leader, in their unwavering belief in whatever Trump happens to be telling them at the time. In this case, it’s the absurd notion that the tariff will “make America great again” by stimulating domestic manufacturing. It couldn’t possibly do that, and team Trump knows this very well. Again, they’ve sold out their support base, in order to bring further advantage to huge corporate interests, and, as usual, they seem to have gotten away with it.
Craig,
Good grief, is your prejudice against the current administration so great you would harm your nations economy, increase the certainty of future environmental harm, assist in promoting current environmental damage and human rights abuse, while encouraging poorer quality imported consumer at the cost of US manufacturers, just to maintain your hatred toward the President and administration ?
Do you really believe all the American people will refuse to buy Solar if the price increases by 5%, or even 10% to purchase superior quality US made panels ?
Don’t you realize the US has been locked in a trade war for the last 30 years and losing?
Do you want to continue losing until US industry has all disappeared and meaningful employment disappeared ?
Are you so defeated you’re happy to cravenly surrender to the PRC all hope and witness the USA become a nation of people trying to sell hamburgers to each other on credit ?
How dare you call domestic American manufacturers and their employees “ignorant” !
Try doing that in in your beloved PRC ! The result would provide you with an excellent education in how China mines cadmium and cobalt. A Secret People Court provide you with the opportunity to a few years “volunteering” in a “re-eduction” work camp in Gansu or Inner Mongolia. There you can experience for yourself why PRC panels are so cheap !
Your bitterness at the President’s success in bringing back and restoring US manufacturing, while providing new hope for American workers is hardly something of which any American citizen should be proud. In fact you should be ashamed. It just proves why no American, especially any American worker, should never again trust the American left.
President Trump may have his faults, but in these policies he deserves support.
The U.S. lost the war associated with manufacturing solar panels eons ago. That, of course, doesn’t mean that we can’t participate in the industry. Ask the 23,000 families that used to be supported by solar sales, installation and integration; they are acutely aware of this.
support American made, Trump has made huge positive changes after only one year, all geared toward American workers and businesses, BRAVO
Roy,
Well said, it good to see at least on American proud of his nation and supportive of his fellow Americans!
mp – “the President’s success in bringing back and restoring US manufacturing” – got some numbers for us? Or just words?
Cameron,
Despite being in office only one year, President Trump can quite rightly point to the gain of 188,000 manufacturing jobs so far this year, far better than the 34,000 factory jobs lost over the same period last year. (US Bureau of Labour).
Manufacturing Companies such as Broadcom Limited are moving their Singapore facility back to the United States. Broadcom produces Digital and Analog Semiconductors with annual revenue exceeding $13.24 billion and employing over 16,000 workers.
Ford, Dow, Translux, GM, Sprint, Carrier, IBM, Foxconn,Apple, GE are just some the hundreds of US manufacturing corporations to reinvest in US manufacturing. All these corporations attribute the decision to stay or move back to the US to the election of President Trump and the policies of the new administration.
The administrations programs supporting re-training and apprenticeships etc is a positive step as will be a more tax friendly environment. Tax cuts and less regulation are major incentives along with a weaker dollar and the President’s trade policies are proving a major incentive to businesses such as manufacturing to invest in the US.
Manufacturing is still only 12% of the US economy, but a revitalized manufacturing sector will have a huge flow on affect to the national economy.
Not all the increases can be directly attribute to the President, but since he would be blamed for any decline, he’s entitled to benefit from any increase.
One thing business appreciates is the determination of a President to keep his election promises !
From CNBC:
US tariff on solar panels is ‘job destroyer,’ says Joseph Stiglitz
Stiglitz was speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
He criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff decision as counterproductive.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/24/us-tariff-on-solar-panels-is-job-destroyer-says-joseph-stiglitz.html?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_lw
Craig,
I was present when Joseph Stiglitz presented his views on tariffs, bitcoin etc.
Now don’t get me wrong, although I seldom agree with most of the economic policies, political policies or prediction promulgated by Dr Stiglitz, I have always found him entertaining, and his idea’s very well presented.
Dr Stiglitz is a very complex and often contradictory economic theorist and adviser. His political leanings are evident from the number of leftist governments and institutions he has served in one capacity or another over the decades of his remarkable career.
His predictions are often erroneous, especially when politically motivated. As is common among many aging leftist theorists, he’s becoming increasingly authoritarian and eager to use government controls to alleviate, disguise or hide the effect of bad, invariably leftist, government economic policies.
Dr Stiglitz vehemently opposes the crypto-currency BitCoin, not for any economic or risk reason, but because BitCoin may be “successful only because of its potential for circumvention, lack of oversight by centralized authorities.”
Stiglitz argues ” BitCoin ought to be outlawed, it serves no socially useful function.”
Dr Stiglitz views are subject to self contradiction on the one hand he often advocates authoritarian socialist style government programs yet opposes any conservative economic austerity restraints.
While his math is usually impeccable, the elements he selects for inclusion in his equations have become increasingly tainted with political bias. IMHO, Dr Stiglitz is an increasingly anachronistic figure, with his best days behind him.
Nevertheless, Dr Stiglitz remains an individual of great importance and I always enjoy his contributions to any debate or discussion.
Here’s what’s happening at Carrier: https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/1887249734639841/
Craig,
Let’s be completely fair, despite feeling sympathy for the 270 workers who will have to find other employment, the President dis manage to save 1,160 jobs by securing Carrier remaining manufacturing in Indianapolis.
Without the President’s intervention all 1400 jobs would have been lost as Carrier moved to Mexico. That move would have been devastating for local economic activity creating more closures in small business and snowballing flow on job losses.
It’s easy to understand how disappointed this individual must feel, but President’s aren’t kings. President’s can’t force companies by “Presidential decree”, to help every individual.
But as an American she can take comfort in her President saving over 80% of her fellow workers jobs, and take hope from the news that in 2017 more than 2.1 million new jobs were created, millions more ‘saved’ and as a result of a continuing fall in unemployment (4.1 percent) wages have started to rise.
Even so, Trump is toxic and incompetent and he deploys extremists to destroy the various federal agencies that form the backbone of American society. If he benefits from the economy that President Obama created and his tax cuts for the rich and for large corporations seem to create job increases in the short run, we still are facing an administration of chaos and destruction and a president with such profound shortcomings that I could not hire him to wash my car. Trump is a national disaster and the best we can do is work to turn Congress to the opposition in 2018 to stop his ruin of our government.
Tom,
That’s just your opinion, and an opinion you’re fully entitled to hold and express.
However, it does kinda fall into the “emotional rant’ category and doesn’t really contribute to the debate.
But thanks for sharing,I’m sure all the President’s many opponents will be gratified by your support.
I’m not sure you could afford to hire the President to wash your car, on the other hand I’m sure he can afford to pay you to wash his !
Tom there seems to be a rising Tide that is realizing that trumperian era is bad smoke and ghostly mirrors .
yes the voices of reason, resistance and far better policy are gathering across the land in ever growing numbers.
That Wall the trumpet promised to build and have mexico pay for well its price tag has risen to $ 25 Billion , if it even gets built as many a GOP serious Rep is now doubting the wisdom and Efficacy of building it so they may under mine it.
And the fact that the American Tax payer is now going to pay the $ 25 billion …is not setting well in the Heartland voters minds……major break in campaign posturing …as said earlier much Bloviating Nonsense by trumpet.
Cameron good point to press upon Marco Polo
So much of the current regime is Bloviated Nonsensical hype – most of the numbers on certain types of Union based manufacturing positions show a decrease around 97,000 jobs nation wide allowed to off shore.
over all there is a uptick above that number in manufacturing in US since the trumperian era began but direct credit for this growth to to the trump policies is a Big Stretch for those with curious minds and detailed analysis – more Hype than fact.
Many a blue collar wonder in Ohio, Mich, Indiana are now regretting their emotional driven mis vote for the trumpet – including the plants HVAC Carrier that the trumpet and his side kick pence provided money and promises to limit job losses.
Well the presidents of those two Unions have been on the news explaining the job losses and the losses of support for trumpets misguided policies. They cite the 97,000 job loss number on CNN, MSNBC and CBS and NPR. Its all a stunt Bait and switch operation. Alternative Reality with alternative sets of talking points.
Further bait and switch is buried in the recent tax scam bill cut – there is a provision for companies that have over $20 million in revenues to receive a $ 4 million tax break. This allows for further off shoring of jobs. A company doing the same revenue figure that does not off shore pays the $ 4 million talk about a baked in incentive to off shore !!!???
The opposite of the stump speeches – next year this nuance may become talking head chatter in the lame stream press.
In respect to the solar tariffs
Since trumpets tariff policy fades away after 4 years no manufacturing Investment in domestic solar will be made because no responsible group would risk their investment for 4 years of protection. Investors will shy away. But as they say the Truth or Devil in this case is in the fine print….Details!
Interesting Times we are in – double speak reigns supremo
More to come later on
Whilst this tariff will slow the rate of cost reduction in solar, I suspect that it will not result in 2018 installed costs higher than those of 2017.
The cost increase for imported panels will be up to around $0.10, and perhaps half that for US made panels using imported cells.
For residential, savings arising from the use of more efficient panels, less expensive inverters, and possibly more streamlined planning processes could more than offset the increase in panel cost (the wholesale panels price forms perhaps 12 to 15% of the cost of a residential install.
The bigger difference applies to utility scale where total installed cost may rise by a few percent as the panels form a much bigger chunk of the overall cost!
I don’t think China will be overly concerned as many markets are now growing rapidly in India, Pakistan, the Middle East, Latin America and North Africa so no shortage of alternative customers. True, the USA remains significant but is in no way a dominant player in solar installation.
My guess is China may substantially boost panel exports to Mexico – effectively entering the USA by the back door. The panels would be installed in Mexico, but displace electricity currently generated in the USA, or even export power to the Southern states.
People here say that prices *will* increase, though obviously you make some excellent points. That’s very interesting about Mexico.
Gary you are on it well thanks
Trumper and his carbgon supporters may think they are undermining the rapid adoption and growth of wind and solar in the US.
They may slow it for awhile as adjustments are made but the market place will over come the negative policy coming from Administration.
Both Shell Oil and BP Oil are re entering the solar sector. Together they are investing around $ 400 million into solar companies. These announcements are 3 weeks old now.
Both are expanding their Wind sector business as is Siemens and GE .
The solar side may lose a skirmish or two but we are in a long war of Attrition on carbon, and we are Winning ….we will Win Bigley before the Bloviators concede defeat if ever but we will WIN !
Craig,
Hmmm, so you agree that any increase in price will be relatively minuscule and insignificant, yet you still maintain 23,000 jobs will be lost if superior US made panels are sold in the US instead of inferior PRC products !
Who is going to sell, install and integrate the US made panels ? Are you really saying US consumers will only buy imported panels ? Are you also claiming those 23,000 will refuse to install US made panels ?
It’s evident in your urge to attack the President, you didn’t think your comment through with any degree of logic, did you ?
You say, “the U.S. lost the war associated with manufacturing solar panels eons ago”, as if that was a source of pride to America!
Why are you not at least acknowledging the effort of a President trying to win, not lose, trade wars ?
When will you apologize to the American workers you sneeringly dismiss as “ignorant” for wanting US manufacturing to prosper ? Will you apologies to both the American workers, Chinese workers and the environment for encouraging the production of PRC panels in appalling conditions over US products ?
As usual, you’re deliberately mischaracterizing my statements:
The 23K job losses are industry figures, not mine
I feel very bad for these people and their families
I wish the US could regain its hegemony in manufacturing, and be a leader in solar
This would take investment and encouragement from the US government
The only thing come from the government to the US solar industry is constant slaps in the face: calling climate change a hoax, pulling out of Paris, removing subsidies for solar and wind while perpetuating subsidies for fossil fuels, and now this
What the president of the U.S. is “trying” to do is anyone’s guess. Even his staff and cabinet have no idea what the man-child is going to do next, or why. He has the mental and emotional capabilities of a spoiled eight-year-old.
Craig,
By ” industry figures ” you mean ‘ estimates’ or ‘predictions’ by Solar panel importers and lobbyists don’t you ?
Did you even bother to analyze propaganda and PR issued from such an obviously biased source? Is your hatred for the present regime so great you’re willing to abandon any reasoning or objectivity just to join the hysterical abuse ?
It’s not the President or administration who don’t know the objectives of this policy, but those who can’t answer a simple question like, “why would US installers rather become unemployed than install US made panels ?”.
Marco, you assert that American solar products are superior, and Chinese inferior.
I would say this is a gross over simplification.
True, US solar panels tend to be at the upper end of quality, and there are SOME inferior Chinese products, especially from tier 3 manufacturers.
I would be very surprised if the top tier 1 manufacturers are selling crap!
Also to be considered are companies such as from Korea which has probably the strongest balance sheet of any major solar manufacturer, and US company Sunpower who’s products manufactured in Malaysia are widely regarded as the best in the world. Both these companies will be affected by the tariffs.
I love the look & warranties of Tesla’s solar panels
I meant to refer to LG from Korea
Gary,
I agree my claim US made panels are superior in quality was a generalization. LG and other manufactures do make high quality products.
However, companies like Sun Power (manufactured mainly in the Philippines and Mexico) have announced a return or partial return to the US as a result of the US government tariff and other business friendly policies..
It’s true the tariff is not a panacea for all Ills in the US economy, merely a signal the US government is prepared to support US manufacturing without direct taxpayer subsidies. Tariffs protection is not designed to eliminate high quality imports, merely level the playing field and announce to the PRC and other nations the US will no longer be subject to price dumping and other unfair trade competition.
Domestically, the administration is telling US (and other ) corporations the US is once again rewarding investment and job creating industries with a new supportive, but competitive trading environment.
Low taxes, simplified regulations and red tape, along with a fairer business environment should prove more effective and lasting than taxpayer subsides and corporate welfare.
Subsides and Corporate welfare can be effective as a short term measure, especially when used to promote innovation, but must be carefully monitored and contain sunset clauses.
Marco looking aat this situation from 50,000 ft above the Fray ( do find some agreement with some of what you are saying , you point out some of the flaws in policy and suggest that there could be room for all players given a fair even playing field or market place.
That would be good for competition and give domestic players a place but the China Governments Industrial Global domination is a policy in action.
In the US we have fragmented policy often contradicting policy. We are nder the false Illusions of so called free market rules so we dont do the things needed to level the playing field.
As Craig has said it would good to have some sort of viable domestic manufacturing of solar most folks would agree with that , good goal for the nation. But to get there requires major reforms in Washington policy makers rules of engagement.
I would not wait on that Trolley. But as I said the market forces will over come the short term negative impacts of trumpets tariffs on solar. Big picture we will WIN.
The week this was announced the city of Jacksonville awarded incentives of $24m to a solar panel mfg. who is bringing 800 new jobs to Duval County beginning this year.
AUustin van horn,
Thank you Austin for that contribution, it’s very good news ! Even better since the company is now tendering for US made panel components instead of the original plan which provided a percentage of imported basic units.
Hi Craig Shield
As usual
I enjoyed yr regular contributors comments.
I feel whatever US President do N does in the best interest of American pple
Any elected Govt runs into troubles N responsible for poll promises
I feel some wrong N some good
What hurts those who are all entered USA N contributed now feel hurts
Whatever the debates as usual apart
I wish there r more competitions over clean tech whether EVs,or Solar,or Windultimately the sooner we get grips over 2degree from or below 2degree is worrisome
We lost to greed of us all living needs can B simple where for lavish life more spending required
For this either use short cut or B unethical
Whatever
Recent @wef #fractured world yes it is
#shared future
I don’t think every leader attended w’ld agree or follow
Sad but thanks for yr info
I wishing everyone here
God bless share love share peace
C K SWAMY P J
More on @vcantogetherdo
Dear Craig.
– 30% tax increase on solar panels import , will not increase so much the cost . And will not harm the demand .
– The US industry will benefit strongly from this new tarif , beside the tax cut on revenue
Will create the an agreable atmosphere for investment , with better quality , more efficiency, with last technology , which we provide better service for the customers .
– as for the global US economy , it will reflects positively , and create a lot of occasions for new labors , , create more demand internally and for export . Specially when as usual US industry comes with better technology . And can be more competitive ,
Dear Friend,
I live in India and have seen what happens when love for nation is lost and love for money for certain families takes priority while taking decisions at national level , how huge funds are mismanaged when patriotism is forgotten and history is rewritten with selfish motives ignoring the larger interest of the country. U.S.A is probably the only country in the world where meritocracy is valued more than anything else.
Please be proud of your country and your president who has the courage to talk truth.
Tom,
That’s just your opinion, and an opinion you’re fully entitled to hold and express.
However, it does kinda fall into the “emotional rant’ category and doesn’t really contribute to the debate.
But thanks for sharing,I’m sure all the President’s many opponents will be gratified by your support.
I’m not sure you could afford to hire the President to wash your car, on the other hand I’m sure he can afford to pay you to wash his !
Pradip Vesvirar,
It’s good to see the US President is not completely unappreciated internationally !
Thank you for your comment
I’m still offering an opportunity to join with me in commercializing a new concept technology that is science based and is scalable from residential to village, neighborhood, town, city, county and those nations that still hold to the hope that through the Paris Climate Agreement humanity can avoid the worst of global warming and climate change. I’ve presented this opportunity in this space before but it went over the heads of Craig Shields, Marcopolo, Cameron etc. This totally new concept in advanced alternative energy fits very well with both the left wing (Democratic) objectives and the right wing (Republican) objectives with regard to every aspect of trade issues, environmental issues and economic issues but as I said it goes over just about everyone’s heads. Ask me any questions in this space or more privately by email to LBlevins@aaecorp.com.
What a riveting analysis.
And after all that expert bluff and bluster there really remains only three serious questions that ordinary American citizens with ‘inferior Chinese solar panels’ on their homes and factories; civic centers and utility scale solar farms etc. (and that amounts to quite a lot!) should now get very vocal about, by contacting their local:-
-Federal Consumer Law Regulator and other State Fair Trading Authorities
-Solar Industry Peak Bodies
-State Government Legislators
– Anyone else in power that has approved by omission this ‘inferior Chinese solar panel’ abomination on the American public knowingly
– And your friendly local legal practitioner of course
and put these three questions to them:-
1. As a consumer, how is it conscionable or lawful that none of the above listed expert authorities as well as individual solar installing companies and technicians, in full knowledge of the existence through widely published evidentiary material on the subject, supported, allowed, and encouraged ‘inferior Chinese solar panels’ to be installed at my premises without me being clearly and fully apprised of this fact at the commercial contract stage?
2. What now are the technical ramifications going forward that I will, or am likely to, or may possibly experience having ‘inferior Chinese solar panels’ at my premises instead of superior US manufactured solar panels?
3. Who should now be held responsible for this deliberate cover-up, who should be prosecuted, and how can I be adequately and fairly compensated for this abomination, and by whom?
Over to you Craig – one of the privileges we human beings enjoy is not being able to un-learn something we have been exposed to or made aware of; it also carries with it certain social responsibilities though that may become burdensome.
With that point in mind, how about you spell out your true convictions (or lack of) regarding “inferior Chinese solar panels” for us all to see please Craig. Or are you really a little bit confused about integrity in thinking and utterance – and practice?
PS: In Australia we have very precise and meaningful Consumer Legislation in place regarding “inferior products”, to refer to in matters like this, as does the USA.
What is definitely an opportunist cop-out is to all scurry off and redefine ‘inferior product’ to ‘varying standard product’. We all know there are varying standards in all things, but ‘inferior’ means ‘inferior’ at the outset and from a commercial offering perspective has a completely different interpretation in law, as it should have.
By logical extension and based on the US hysteria around all this (as usual) the only appropriate action for the President should be to entirely ban ‘inferior Chinese solar panels’ from entering the country!
Lawrence Coomber
Hey Mate Lawrence you make some very valid points concerning quality and standards.
These criteria should be included into any sort of trade policy or tariffs . Sadly they seem not to be per your comments.
Yes there are many a large low first cost solar farms ( corners were cut to get a loan and low LCOE with compromises in Inverters, strings , panels and site orientation mistakes because the Cowboy developers were acting like typical strip retail mall developers short term and low first cost….no life cycle costs or impacts considered. Some of these plants will not produce energy yields nor last as long as projected etc. Much of this has been lost in the solar gold rush …….policy makers have subsidized wealthy home owners in the pursuit of deployment as well.
While single mothers working two minimum wage jobs pay a portion of their taxes to subsidize 6 figure home owners so they can invest $50 k or so in a solar unit and then demand the utility pay full retail price for solar exported energy into the Grid.
Meanwhile the wholesale price of the various regional grids is going down ( the positive market impacts of solar and wind abundance the good part) But utilities were forced to pay the solar net metered customers full retail when the real value of the exported surplus energy was not equal to wholesale price at certain times. This area is complex and there are benefits to GRID of solar DG etc. but there is a lot of Convoluted misguided policies that work at Cross Purposes to the over all solar marketplace in the US.
First hand knowledge and awareness of these Inconvenient Truths and Under Explained or Explored Truths cause me to find common ground with much of what you stated.
In respect to quality – here is some relevant info for those who can Swim deep or Fly High with the Angels –
In Texas 2 months ago, I find it interesting that Han Wa solar is now selling, developing, building and signing a Long Term O & M agreement with the City of Austin Texas for a 260 megawatt solar tracking ( East to West in West Tex.)
The All in price per KWNR is going to be around $ .031 cents per KWNR. ( ALL In being construction, components, interconnection, Operational and maintenance and CAPEX). This $ 3.1 cents figure is Below the ERCOT GRID ( 90 % of Texas Grid) whole sale market price. This excellent competitive price is driving more Stakes into the bleeding hearts of coal lovers ( Texas is closing 3,000 megawatts of aging coal by end of the 2018. ) This in addition to the previous closures that are mounting.
It is also driving down the wholesale prices in Texas and other areas of the US.
But the inferred point that relates to your position on Quality is that
HAN Wa is not building and moving on, they are responsible for the life cycle of the plant. As owner and operator they must live with or die with quality! Profit or Lose – a good market solution. So they must know their Quality is there or they would not be tethered to the plant for its Life Cycle. So there must be some level of Quality that is baked in – so RISK is reduced or they would not do it. I see this as a market solution. Policy guided – good purchasing rules.
If one were to review many of the large solar and wind projects in the US they would see this builder Ownership partnership. It bodes well for a maturing industry and stable market grounded upon decent technology that can perform and Deliver.
So the Moral of this story is Good Public Policy decision makers like Austin who have figured some of these muances out and are writing RFP s with TEETH. We need our leadership to start leading and making sound policy. This low quality sausage is not good with my Pasta or Red Vino !
When you are fishin trust you land the big One! cheers Lawrence
@Silent Running
Nice to see you are still functioning old mate and very eloquently as always I detect SR.
But don’t discount coal my good friend. In fact without it burning beautifully and brightly in the boiler room today, powering a 1910 coal burner steamship (TSS Earnslaw) that I was travelling on in Queenstown New Zealand this morning (19/2); I would be stranded in a remote gorge without a paddle, or fishing tackle and bait, or beer. and that is not an enviable situation to find oneself in NZL SR.
So thank you prevailing local gods for that hard black coal today that safely got me back to the solar PV project I am working on in Queenstown for the next 2 weeks.
This seems to be the perfect example of coal and Solar PV working nicely together to keep the local ‘wheels of commerce revolving”.
LOL
Lawrence Coomber
@Les
Don’t be discouraged about your game changing idea being ignored by the likes of Craig Marcopolo and Cameron.
I on the other hand am a bit smarter and more visionary than that trifecta, so count me in mate.
Contact me at any time by email and if you don’t get a response within 3 months don’t fret – just leave a message, I am probably just out-back fishing somewhere.
Lawrence Coomber
Lawrence,
I wish you well with your investment in Les Beven’s “Project”. I fear after close examination, the attraction of a long fishing trip may prove irresistible 🙂
Sadly, the ethics of domestic and light commercial solar sales industry are regarded on a par with the cladding industry. This is largely a result of a lack of early government regulation and over hype about the ‘miracle’ of solar panels during the halcyon years between 2006 and 2016.
The PRC government saw an opportunity to massively undercut the market leader, BP Solar, who had developed the industry and the PRC set about gaining leadership by swamping the world with subsidized cheap solar panels, manufactured by cheap labour and raw materials produced in appalling conditions.
The strategy was quite simple and very effective. By the time Western consumers became sufficiently educated, the PRC gained dominance by effectively driving everyone else out of the market. As consumers became better educated and more aware PRC makers increased prices and quality while retaining a large share of the market.
Over the last few decades these trading tactics have proved hugely successful for the PRC against Western competition in nearly every industry. President Trump spoke of these tactics during his address to the WEF here in Davos only a few hours ago. His message was restrained, but the meaning was clear and candid.
The US President praised those leaders who have taken advantage of the naivety and complacency of the USA to advance the prosperity of their nations and peoples. He also warned the US has awoken and will prove a more vigorous trade competitor under his administration.
It was an interesting address from a tired President suffering from a bad cold. The President avoided his usual rhetoric and delivered his address with more gravitas. His speech was well received my most delegates.
@Marcopolo
Yours is a pretty fair analysis of the solar PV industry evolution 2006 – 2016 MP.
Whatever the unpleasant minutia detail surrounding that evolution though, the world should be thankful for the persistence and perseverance of the Chinese PV industry in globalising this important product. Of course you know my views, solar PV is an important ’boutique power source’ for the right circumstances (Craig will never come to terms with this aspect though).
Regarding Les – I’ve just thawed out the mullet for bait and am heading off to Byron Bay fishing!
Lawrence Coomber
Good luck with your fishing excursion Mr. Coomber. Be thinking about my proposal and if you like you can send me an email at LBlevins@aaecorp.com for more no obligation information. Putting the words position paper in the subject line will get you a position paper as an attachment.
Lawrence,
I hate to disagree. The PRC did not “globalize” the PV industry, BP Solar and lot’s of other manufacturers around the world “globalized ” solar power.
The PRC provided no technology, or innovation, simply flooded existing markets created by the pioneers at great expense, with cheap, and mostly inferior copies.
PRC manufactures enjoyed five principle advantages.
1) No environmental control on mining or manufacture
2) No health or human rights concern for low paid (even slave ) labour.
3) N0 royalty payments and a total disregard of patents.
4) Export subsidies
5) Misleading labeling, price dumping and other tactics.
I know you often work in the PRC and are fond of it’s people (me too) but the government hand hierarchy can be pretty ruthless.
@Marcopolo
The shining light head and shoulders above all other players in the development of the global PV technology as we currently know it over the last 40 years, was Australia.
In fact the Chinese PV technology industry was conceived and managed initially (in China) by Australian CFO’s which were essential to the international credibility of the new Chinese startups and an absolute must have to attract US investors to those startups on the NYSE.
The entire PV cell technology itself, manufacturing at scale processes and techniques and plant management and training for the first startups in China was developed by Australians in Sydney (UNSW) over many years.
Please take the time to listen to a recent video from the principal person (known globally by many – including Chinese academia and many at NREL) as the father of modern solar PV himself; Australian Professor Martin Green.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09CHkqQIA-A
So all of the points you have raised, if accurate, can be sheeted back to Australian originated directives and then implementation on the ground there by Australian senior execs directing proceedings on the ground with the first solar startups!
My personal involvement in the Chinese solar PV since 2006 has involved introducing over 50 Australian solar practitioners to the solar wind and hydro industries in China by running technology tours (often including the Australian Ambassador) in the first 2 years of tours. From this platform I went on to have a consultancy role with many manufacturers. I moved on from the tours and the consultant activities in 2012 and turned my attention back to design and manufacturing our own solar and battery storage integrated off grid systems and products.
I have never seen anything like you have described though about the Chinese solar manufacturing industry since I got involved in it in 2006.
I hope you take the time to listen to the Martin Green video Marcopolo.
Lawrence Coomber
Lawrence,
Thank you for the interesting video link. Australian scientists and engineers have indeed been prominent in the Solar industry.
In fact much early work was undertaken between BP solar and the CSIRO. However, when it comes to pioneering the development, sale, and distribution of distribution solar panels on a global basis every agrees BP Solar was the pioneer.
I can believe you are sincere when you say you have never witnessed any unpleasant working conditions in the PRC. PRC corporations and authorities are very careful to relieve foreigners of any burden such revelation may place upon the conscience of the folks helping develop or trade with the PRC.
The would be also true of many Chinese companies who wouldn’t dream of asking awkward questions about mining practices.
As you know lot’s of nasty stuff goes into making some types of solar panels, ie:
Metals & Mineral Products used to make a Solar Panels
Arsenic .
Bauxite (aluminum)
Boron Minerals
Cadmium
Copper (
Gallium
Indium
Iron ore (steel)
Molybdenum
Lead (batteries)
Phosphate rock (phosphorous)
Selenium
Silica
Tellurium
Titanium dioxide
Rare Earth
Cassiterite
Columbite-tantalite
Wolframite
I dare say you haven’t been invited to visit the folk who live in for Baotou or take a swim in it’s toxic lake ! V
Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_UdqZdFr-w
Or just google Video for Baotou China
Baotou, is only one of many such hell holes in the Ever Glorious Peoples Republic.
Mate Marco now you are speaking realities and the under handed market tactics of the PRC ….well stated .
That lends some credence for the trumpets tariff policy though the policy is incomplete and short term….
BP and SHell are both re investing into solar they see the economics of the emerging market and they need new sources of revenues to off set the coming decline in oil profits as the market dynamics are going to put limits on growth. Etc.
What is with Les s technology is it viable ?
Or should Lawrence expand into deep water fishing?
I missed previous discussions of his technology.
Thank you again for detailing the PRC tactics the Inconvenient Truths but please dont over look the ill deeds of one Ivanka Trump who employs the corrupt PRC manufacturing and human life standards in making her junk that she retails. Lets be consistent. Another dark hole in the trumperian lie.
Hi Les.
I certainly do value your passion for innovation and experimentation Les and I am not mocking your efforts or your self-belief.
From your own perspective Les you have a demonstrated commitment and belief in your innovative ideas, and that is what drives us all as individuals. So keep up that attitude.
You have no understanding though of global energy science and innovation, particularly as it applies to the future imperatives that need, must, and therefore will be, satisfied by appropriate new age generation technology in due course.
There are several key factors that feature in the innovative thinking and direction of the world’s best and brightest physicists,
scientists, researchers and academics working in this space, that guide them in their energy technology developmental journey, including:-
1/ The obvious and not yet so obvious industrialisation and re-industrialisation ‘massive’ energy imperatives of all nations going forward;
2/ The global population dynamics going forward (for example the projected doubling of the global population to >14 billion within 45 years;
3/ The new energy intensive technologies and industries coming on line to meet the rapidly escalating global population demands going forward, that provide for the ‘new era of plenty’ that the global population will want that can only be satisfied by new age technologies;
4/ And all of the above that moves us inexorably into a new ‘massive global energy production and consumption era’ whilst addressing the challenge of reducing global greenhouse gases to insignificant levels permanently.
Your focus is elsewhere Les, and outside of your own small space you have nothing to add to the serious global debate before us. Either has Craig for that matter; and nor do I or MP.
So follow your passion through to its limits Les and take pride and enjoyment in what you achieve, but please be mindful that your thoughts whilst interesting to many, are not at all relevant to serious energy debate for a global audience going forward.
And good luck to you mate.
Lawrence Coomber
Greetings Craig,
If you are concerned about jobs,the good news is that those 23,000 jobs to be lost will easily be replaced by the effects of illegal alien crackdown.
As a painter in Southern California for almost 40 years , I have witnessed an overwhelming invasion by illegal aliens in all segments of the trades that have clearly resulted in job losses and a stagnation of wages and nobody in some office can convince me otherwise. Nobody seemed to care about those jobs being lost except those affected, families and all.
It is a travesty and insult to be called a racist, ignorant and deplorable when you object to foreigners ignoring our laws to sneak into the country and then using our laws to stay. They have cost me money and created quite a resentment from a huge amount of Americans who have a common sense, basic understanding of justice. A civilized society cannot exist when people, citizens or not, can pick and choose which laws to ignore and obey! So if you are truly concerned about those 23,000 projected job losses, take heart, Trump is fixing that!
In regards to climate change, I now have a hard time believing data or conclusions after observing corruption and power seeking tactics and tendencies of the left leaning crowd of which I used to be one of. I simply find myself immediately questioning any contentions they or main stream media may present weather it is true or otherwise- I certainly question the non believers as well. I simply don’t trust information presented much any more.
Craig I believe your quote – “As usual, this directive is aimed at making ignorant people stand up and cheer their leader”- Well, No need to insult people who disagree with you.I am not ignorant (maybe not the smartest) or deplorable nor do I cheer the leader. The condescending, snobby, know it all attitude of the left towards Trump supporters probably turned off a lot of people. That along with the rampant illegal immigration is why we have the president we do. Easy- that is “What Happened”.
That being said, Trump certainly can be an idiot, unlikable and at times makes himself hard to defend but I don’t care about his personality – just his policies not all of which I believe in but most.
Thanks for providing this opportunity to comment.
Regards,
Wayne,
Project Acclimate
Wayne,
Brilliantly said Wayne ! Your honesty and clarity of thinking are very refreshing to read.
I like your style Wayne.
And yes great public policy initiatives are a rare beast globally. Mediocrity in all things is the norm and it’s probably always been this way.
Unfortunately the world is becoming increasingly dysfunctional and mediocre in all policy based matters quite quickly. Global dysfunction is the consequence of the averaging effect; a concept embraced it seems by most reasonable people everywhere supporting the concept of ‘a reasonable compromise of varying viewpoint’s’ is a fair outcome for all to take forward. Wrong.
And of course, this philosophical viewpoint cannot generate great policy initiatives in anything. Only average policy initiatives are possible at the very best.
Great policy is great policy and non-compromising.
And that’s why we find ourselves ‘averaging down’ important policy making opportunities everywhere in everything. Unintended consequences as a result spring to mind.
Lost opportunities all round, and no better exemplified in the farcical and cynical global energy generation debates doing the rounds for the last ten years now, with zero ‘great policy initiatives’ to show anywhere as a consequence. Plenty of ‘very very average’ policies abound though! And that is simply not good enough – and looking back will be regarded a waste of time and effort.
Stay optimistic Wayne is the takeaway.
Lawrence Coomber
Here in Alaska, alternative/renewable energy is not a “boutique” energy source. Even though we produce a fair share of the nation’s oil, fossil fuel derived diesel, gasoline, and heating oil are priced much higher than in the lower 48 states. Leave the road system, and the prices for energy skyrocket. Not unusual for price in remote villages for gasoline and heating oil prices to be $6-10/gallon, electricity rates from $.50 to $1.00/kwh. Solar becomes viable even if it only works 8 months out of the year. Same with wind.
Climate change isn’t debated about in Alaska, its here. Thawing permafrost causes our roads to undulate like a roller coaster. Our esteemed president today declared that the polar ice caps are doing just fine,(president knows more than people living here, not!) but the facts are that the Arctic Ocean is freezing later, having frozen at Pt. Barrow just 26 days ago. (Normal was mid-November) The ice is thinner. Cruise ships pass through the Northwest Passage, encountering no ice blocking their path. I’ll support Craig on this, we’d be better off moving as quick as possible away from fossil fuels to any and every form of renewable possible. Its interesting to me that the Chinese see the problems of pollution from fossil fuel, and are transitioning to solar as fast as possible, but our president wants to go back to dirty air, rolling back clean air standards just this week, and promoting coal. We’ve had a government policy favoring the fossil fuel industry rather than renewables. Our government could have promoted solar the same as the Chinese government has, but starting with Reagan, has been schizoid in its policy toward renewables. Our solar industry never got the boost from government it needed, (even if just to say this is where we need to go) for it to take off, so our country has been bested at capitalism by the pinko communists. Time will tell whether the tariffs help or hurt, but we do have an administration hostile to anything green.
@David
Yes correct: in Alaska, alternative/renewable energy is not a “boutique” energy source, it is an absolute must have “mainstream characteristics” essential power source.
From a global energy perspective it is and can never become anything more than a “boutique” power source though David. The worlds requirement for power is simply beyond what the “boutique” solar PV technology applications can provide – at the required (and massively growing) scale.
And until the focus and momentum and importantly the discussion moving to hard national energy policies recognise this fact and change dramatically, there is no change possible to global warming and the harmful effects of global green house gasses running riot to an inevitable and disastrous consequence.
Don’t rely on all of the misinformation out there on this subject David including from the often skewed stuff from 2GreenEnergy. Contact instead reliable top level sources in the US Govt Energy Agencies or those equivelants from some other countries, and ask them about the global percentage of PV technology now in place and how much that miniscule percentage has influenced the downturn in global GHG levels.
David it is all about understanding trend-lines. Global human demographics, and global human aspirations that we all share. Understanding these subjects clearly (globally) and you will have mastered understanding global energy imperatives moving forward.
These of course are the details that really matter to people, and not the nonsense and hysteria we have become used to (and are now blindly accepting of) via all and any forum globally this last 10 years.
Solar power is an excellent and important power source for “boutique” applications just about everywhere.
It is my profession by the way.
Lawrence Coomber
There are no good solutions, and we are 50 years behind the curve from where we should be. The revolution either needs to drastically cut energy use, or up efficiencies or down scale everything. Saying the only solution is to keep using fossil fuels and denying climate change is the same as stepping on the gas while driving toward a cliff. Can’t believe the only solution is to Thelma and Louise our civilization. Our president better like bequeathing his kids a big water hazard for Mar-a-lago is destined to get wet.
Excellent exchanges from many different perspectives – David you are correct sir we are behind the curve and it is going to take a much Higher and Wiser level of collaboration in the global community to get on a better track of sustainability.
Too often we hung up on just considering the impacts and limits of 1 technology like solar.
The challenge of Global Warming is beyond any one technology.
Since there is no 1 Silver Bullet to slay the Beast it will take a multi faceted approach , a consortium of technologies in many sectors. We can only impact the challenge of Global Warming w solar to a certain degree as Lawrence accurately details. However, I would not relegate solar to a boutique power status it is more than that.
We need energy policy that exercises better demand side management DSM
Supply and Demand side balancing that wring out the inefficiencies that have been characteristic of the energy grid globally and lead to over investment in huge and then under utilized projects.
Deployment at a more rapid scale new efficiency technologies like super foam insulation, HVAC , heat recovery more CHP in industrial and institutional sectors.
Sustainable Agricultural practices and harvesting of more Bio GAS , carbon reducing farming practices.
Urban planning and a end to short term market driven development that wastes energy in favor of more denser development that reduces transportation and input energy requirements.
Greater population control policies
Water re use and desalinization ( a good boutique application of solar in some cases).
There is no shortage of technical approaches or solutions and bright minds and dedicated spirits globally seem eager to bring more to bear in the market given proper acceptance levels.
There are other areas for improvement but a Laissez Faire short term market policy approach will no longer suffice – it will take more Governmental Policy structure but the policy must clearly demonstrate a positive payoff to the public to get buy in. perhaps that is the Achilles heel of trying to change the self limiting ARC of collision with reality that currently we are on….
Perhaps the flawed human condition is the real limiting factor in the end.
Regretfully some of the commenters take refuge and give acclaim to the flawed short term and counter productive policies of the trumperian era as they are technically, morally, and economically bankrupt ideas. To be blunt they are the ROOT Source of the Global Warming Challenge ….
that’s something any right minded informed reasonable person can rest their cards on – You can take it to the Bank – we must change or face the sad music.
Maybe those bright minds working on the ITER project in France Fusion Nukes will reach the needed milestone that has proven so elusive over the decades. Perhaps that will arrive in 2035 or so ….and fill the gaps that wind , solar and demand side mgmt. have…. perhaps on a lessor scale or challenge the SMR s nukes may arrive like Blucher at Waterloo and carry the Tide to victory …..
But as I write these thoughts I am haunted by the reality that our policy programs change directions every 4 years or 2 years w congress in the US. Other Nations also are slaves to their constant rearranging the chairs as they say on the decks of the Titanic thus undermining effective long term solutions to our Great Challenges.
Perhaps these Institutional barriers are too entrenched in our collective DNA. So maybe good public policy is the Elusive Butterfly and the Real Achilles heel to the Best thought out plans of Enlightened Scientists and Policy makers.
So David kudos for wanting real change . Wayne I share your disillusionment and I have lived it myself but I refrain from aligning with the conservative root causes of the problems we face I stated why earlier.
While Marco and Lawrence make good points in many areas they are over reaching in their criticism of Craigs positive support for a greener Future what ever form it may be. Craig gets it , he may not have all the answers but no one does either.
We should all be willing to accept the Hard Fact that the current Arc of Humanity is at risk – severe risk for future generations unless Real substantial Change is Implemented at record speed!
Its long past time to get working at resolution even if it means shedding our addictions to false positions and Silver Bullet solutions that are only partial solutions in the Aggregate.
Thanks to all for inspiring some good thoughts where ever you may be….