New Wind and Solar Will Be Cheaper than Existing Coal and Nuclear By the Early 2020s

Some of our frequent commenters like to take me to task for what they call my “idealistic” statements to the effect that our world is right around the corner from affordable, unsubsidized clean energy.  Their push-back is understandable, given that I’m simply a journalist in the field of energy and, I suppose, an advocate for renewables.  After all, bold affirmations of key trends tend to mean more when they come from the very pinnacle of the energy industry itself.

That’s what made these remarks by Jim Robo, CEO of NextEra Energy, so astounding.  NextEra is a giant energy company with subsidiaries that include Florida Power & Light (America’s third-largest utility, with 4.8 million customers) and NextEra Energy Resources, and boasts of being “the world’s largest generator of renewable energy from the wind and sun.”

From this article:

On a Q4 earnings conference call on Friday, Robo predicted that by the early 2020s, it will be cheaper to build new renewables than to continue running existing coal and nuclear plants. This wasn’t some aspirational post on the company blog, either; it was a call with investors, to whom Robo is legally beholden. And it comes on the heels of other mind-boggling news from the utility sector, like a solicitation for energy bids in Colorado that turned up renewables+storage projects that will come within striking distance of existing coal plants by the early 2020s.

• Unsubsidized new wind: 2.0-2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour
• Unsubsidized new solar: 3.0-4.0 cents per kilowatt-hour
• Variable operating costs of existing coal or nuclear plants: 3.5-5.0 cents per kilowatt-hour

Am I missing something, or is this pretty much the end of the road for coal in the U.S.?  Who on Earth is going to want to build another coal plant?  Moreover, who is going to want to continue to operate existing plants?

I don’t have to be reminded that not all my predictions come true. (Yes, Mom, Trump is still in office.) But it sure looks like we’re seeing the migration from fossil energy to renewables occurring far faster than most people forecast, and, as I reluctantly admitted when I made the prognostication, it has essentially nothing to do with environmentalism.

As I wrote in Bullish on Renewable Energy a few years ago, it’s all happening based squarely on the forces of pure market economics.  Whether we give a damn about the health and well-being of the world’s people and those to come after we’re gone may be an interesting discussion, but it’s certainly not the principal reason we’re ushering in wind and solar at such a fabulous rate.