The Solar Industry Could Have Gone in a Different Direction
A variety of events, including the looming tariffs, conspired to eliminate 9,800 jobs in the solar industry between 2016 and 2017; this represents first drop ever recorded in the National Solar Jobs Census since it started collecting data in 2010.
It didn’t have to go this way.
Consider an alternative universe in which humankind perceived the catastrophe it faced regarding the generation of greenhouse gases via the consumption of fossil fuels, and, instead of lying about it and pretending it didn’t exist, worked hard to do everything in its power to prevent it from happening.
Now, the obvious question is: How hard would that have been? The truth is that it would have been intensely difficult, which is why it didn’t happen in the actual universe in which we live. It would have required that we somehow disentangled money from politics, and made our decisions based on what’s right for humankind, rather that what’s the easiest way for billionaires to get even richer.
Apparently, that’s an impossibility.
Craig you are right and wrong.
Right: – man-made greenhouse gasses largely due to fossil fuels combustion in all of its forms has led to a global climate crisis unfolding – but not to a point yet beyond reversal to insignificant levels permanently through the development and wide spread deployment globally of new energy dense power generation technologies to replace fossil fuel generation technologies.
Wrong: – solar PV that you refer to is not now and never was intended to be the new energy dense power generation technology that would be able to replace fossil fuel or other energy dense generation technologies.
Solar PV although an inefficient generation technology, has particular attributes nonetheless that make it a critically important global energy generation technology for many specific for purpose applications, and will continue to play an essential and significant role in these boutique global applications for a very long time to come.
But solar PV generation technologies should not be misrepresented as an alternative to energy dense generation technology to fossil fuels or other energy dense atomic generation technologies for example, which of course are required by everyone on earth, to industrialise nations, rebuild and upgrade nations and their infrastructure, develop new are energy intensive enterprises in all subject areas, and modernise global social and well-being circumstances and structures for all people going forward.
To summarise: what you Craig are seeing now and lamenting as an aberration, was always going to be, only you didn’t identify that at the outset whilst many others did.
Lawrence Coomber
Lawrence,
Right on ! When you’re right, you’re right !
Craig,
You really must widen your reading beyond ‘Daily Kos’ and ‘Common Dreams’ .
A tariff on imported Solar Panels has nothing to do with “billionaires getting even richer”, nor should a modest tariff on imported solar panels affect sales of solar systems unduly.
There’s no ‘conspiracy’, the increase in the price of solar panels is relatively small and as unnoticeable as an increase in the total price of the product.
Like all ‘boom’ industries, the solar industry is experiencing the normal market constriction and adjustment occurring as the market matures and boom time conditions end.
The solar industry will still experience steady growth, just not the excitement of a boom driven by a flood of cheap (often inferior) imports and large subsidies. Like all new industries during boom conditions the attrition rate among start up and sales driven companies with limited capital and less technical experience becomes obvious as the market naturally settles.
There are many factors, mostly foreseeable contributing to the shakeout out in the residential solar panel industry. Most states had sunset clauses for subsides beginning to come into force 2017. 2016, was a peak year with many solar companies advertising unsustainable low prices in the hope of staying alive on cash flow alone.
Even Al Gore supports the tariff !
“It didn’t have to go this way ”
Yes, it did ! It was always obvious. Every boom time industry, especially those heavily reliant on consumer or taxpayer subsidies will eventually undergo a constriction. At least half of all the companies participating in the boom time sales conditions were unsustainable ventures, the natural attrition rate was always obvious once the shakeout began.
Blaming some vague ‘conspiracy’ for the natural consequences occurring during inevitable shakeouts of any industry experiencing boom time conditions, is absurd.
With or without the tariff, for the last three years it was always obvious the huge explosion in solar installations wasn’t sustainable. Sooner or later, an unprofitable industry must rationalize. Keeping an industry alive with artificial taxpayer or consumer subsidies only harms the good operators in the industry and decreases incentive to improve the product.
In the US new employment will be created in manufacturing solar panels as well as R&D to improve the technology. Employment will drop in sales and installation to about half the present level as unprofitable operators level the industry and the consumer market steadies.
On the bright side, solar installations for new, (and renovated homes) will slowly become a standard fixture included in the price of construction.
Craig, that’s the problem with too much idealistic passion and enthusiasm, it encourages tunnel vision. Making wild overly optimistic claims will inevitably bring disappointment. It’s only natural when those claims collapse to invent some ‘conspiracy’ to explain why your overly idealistic estimation was misplaced and inaccurate.
Cheer up ! The US solar industry will actually benefit from this constriction. US manufacturers will be able to produce a better quality product, spend money or R&D etc. Consumers will also benefit by dealing with companies with greater longevity, expertise and stability. Utilities will benefit from a more predictable industry.