Is Trump a Wrecking Ball for Renewable Energy?
In response to my post of Will Renewable Energy Survive Trump? Gary Tulie writes:
My guess is that solar PV deployment will barely slow down through 2018 and 2019 before accelerating through 2020-2021.
Residential solar deployment should be mostly unaffected by the 30% tariffs as the panels only form a small proportion of the installed cost, and even then, pre-tax panel cost continues to drop.
There may be an initial slowdown on commercial and utility scale as the panels form a larger part of the total cost.
It should also be remembered that large quantities of panels were imported ahead of the tariffs – so delaying their impact.
As for wind, concentrating solar power and geothermal, there should be no reason for those to slow down as learning curve continues to reduce costs.
Then there are state policies – which will in some cases continue to encourage further deployment.
All this is true. I would add only two things:
1) Greenlighting the development of more fossil fuel infrastructure can only set renewables back. Extending the availability of cheap (albeit dirty) oil, and constructing pipelines whose costs can only be recovered over decades is a terrible idea, and
2) Our civilization will not survive a business-as-usual approach to energy that extends indefinitely into the future. We either make a concerted effort to decarbonize our energy, or we doom future generations to unprecedented levels of suffering.
Craig,
Publishing a wish list isn’t the same thing as solving a problem.
Governments must act in the real world with objectivity and practical policies or suffer economic consequences to the prosperity of the nation.
The US was a decaying economic train wreak, headed for destruction. Only the energy boom created by widespread deployment of radical oil (and gas) extraction technology transformed the US economy and saved the national prosperity and international competitiveness.
Wind and Solar technology are not magical panacea ! Both Wind and solar will play and increasing role in energy generation, but the value is limited and restricted by a number of inherent factors.
Oil and gas, including pipelines are also not ‘magical’ solutions, they too are subject to economic realities of supply and demand.
Those investing in pipelines risk losing the capital investment if the demand for the product ceases ( as one day it will) . The pipeline owners must gamble demand continues until the capital investment has returned sufficient reward to pay back the initial investment and return a profit to investors.
Both the nation and environment benefit from constructing safer, more efficient methods of transporting oil and gas than road and rail.
Without the current boom in US fossil fuel industry, the US couldn’t afford to import or build any renewable energy projects. The US national debt is only affordable due to Oil and Gas revenues underpinning the US economy.
Disengaging the US economy from Fossil Fuel energy dependence will not be easy and depends on improvements in technology which as yet don’t exist.
Advocating utopian concepts that don’t exist, while ignoring practical step to mitigate the detrimental aspects of existing energy technology is a recipe for economic and environmental disaster.