Will Renewable Energy Survive Trump?
A gentleman by the name of Washington Cray asks, “Will renewable energy survive Trump?”
I’m reminded of a story I heard years ago, and I believe it’s true, about a golf outing that (mid-20th Century U.S. golf pro “Slammin’ Sammy”) Sam Snead had with a neighbor, near his home in a rural part of western Virginia. The neighbor, whose name is lost to history, apparently asked Snead about a club choice as follows, “Do you think I can get home from here with a six iron?” Snead looked at his shoes, shrugged his shoulders, and softly replied, “Eventually.”
If we still have a civilization here in 100 years, it will be at least in part because we minimized the impact of the retrogressive energy policies of the Trump administration, and got back on track on the critical effort to decarbonize our energy. The corrupt practice of propping up the fossil fuel industry by providing it with huge and unfair advantages against renewables is both tragic and deeply immoral, but one has to think that this is going to be short-lived.
Make no mistake, the Trump administration is a disease, growing more virulent by the day. It forms an aggressive blockade against our efforts to protect our environment from the dangers that our scientists, with virtual unanimity, tell us that are extremely likely to run through our planet’s environment like a wrecking ball over the next century.
Yet I believe we will turn this around. We will get there. Eventually.
My guess is that solar PV deployment will barely slow down through 2018 and 2019 before accelerating through 2020-2021.
Residential solar deployment should be mostly unaffected by the 30% tariffs as the panels only form a small proportion of the installed cost, and even then, pre-tax panel cost continues to drop.
There may be an initial slowdown on commercial and utility scale as the panels form a larger part of the total cost.
It should also be remembered that large quantities of panels were imported ahead of the tariffs – so delaying their impact.
As for wind, concentrating solar power and geothermal, there should be no reason for those to slow down as learning curve continues to reduce costs.
Then there are state policies – which will in some cases continue to encourage further deployment.
Craig,
Simply because the present administration is unwilling or unable to fulfill your ” wish list” because neither the science, technology or economic realities exist (except in some utopian vision), is not a “disease” but responsible government.
Production of oil and Gas don’t need “propping up” ! Oil and gas( even to a lesser extent coal) are not only an essential part of the US economy, it could be realistically argued they constitute the most essential component of the US economy.
Fossil fuel energy fulfills more than than 80% of US energy requirements. In contrast, heavily subsidized, high priced wind and Solar production contributes under 3% !
The American economic renaissance has occurred thanks almost entirely due to technological advancements in exploration, drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology. As a result domestic (North American) growth in oil and gas has increased since 2010 by 368%.
The resultant energy boom allowed the US economy to continue servicing and even slow the rate of growth in the unprecedented national debt. The economic activity generated has allowed for the beginning of the long overdue task to invest in the restructure and reform of the US economy to once again compete with fast growing international competition.
US oil production has single-handedly restored the national economy to proserity. Since 2012 the sector has created an estimated 5.1 million new jobs, increasing the average household disposable income increasing by $2,200.
This sudden increase of easily taxed wealth revenue has produced a myriad of economic flow on benefits, including ironically, financing to expand renewable sources of energy now made possible by an increase in national investment income and economic confidence
The flow on benefits to the US economy provided by the energy boom are vast ( far too many to list in these few lines), but it’s safe to say every American citizen is benefiting from the revolution in oil and gas exploration, extraction and refinement technology.
Few great nations get an economic “second chance”. The US has been extraordinarily blessed to have been given a second chance thanks to the US oil and gas industry. Even more importantly this reprieve arrived at a time when the wolves were at the door and growing stronger as the US citadel decayed.
This is no time for the American left to perversely start bleating about mythical “huge and unfair advantages against renewables provided to the fossil fuel industry”.
This should be a time all Americans thank the US (North American) Oil And Gas industry for providing the wherewithal to rebuild the American economy and invest in long term planning and development for future generations when the economic advantage brought by the current boom no longer exists.
That’s the future of renewable energy. This is not a time to be advocating some bizarre and impossible crusade to impose a mythical utopia, producing only dissension, divisiveness and futile economic harm and stagnation.
Now is the time for unity of purpose. The task ahead is to prepare the US economy for the inevitable onslaught from the ‘Barbarians outside the gates’. It’s time to use the opportunity provided by the Oil and Gas (even coal)industries to produce and develop radical new energy the technologies able to keep the US economy strong in the strenuous times ahead when eventually the US Oil and Gas inmdustries once again fade in economic importance.
This scenario may not happen for 50 years or more, but America’s competitors and enemies are patient and committed to long term planning. They know time is their friend.
In the meantime, US policy makers while celebrating the good fortune and reprieve a renaissance in North American Oil and Gas has wrought, must also encourage development of environmental policies to assist with mitigating the downsides of fossil fuel usage.
Mitigation is the watchword, not a nihilistic and suicidal crusade against the economy with absurd, unrealistic expectations and wild claims. Creating confusion and disharmony, expending energy working against the common good, while waging bitter internecine political warfare, will achieve nothing but promote further decay and weaken US resolve.
Crusades against oil and gas will achieve achieve nothing except strengthen US competitors( and enemies), producing no tangible or practical benefit for the economy or the environment.
In previous comments I often urged you to consider expending less energy and talent in castigating the current administration, and instead concentrate on promoting real, practical technology, projects and campaigns to better the economy and the environment.
The opportunities abound. Instead of ranting about the guy in the White House, why not throw your energy and considerable talent to set an example by producing real economic and environmental benefits, without political disruption as a prerequisite.
Manufacturers contribute $2.09 trillion directly to the economy, an increase from $1.73 trillion in 2009. The sector accounts for 12% of the GDP and supports 17.6 million U.S. jobs.
The industry is expanding, meaning there is an increase in output. Though factory expansion slowed in December, The Institute for Supply Management – a trade group of purchasing managers – reported its manufacturing index was at a three-year high just two months before. The Institute also reported manufacturing employment measured a four-month high.
The energy sector’s growth has directly impacted that of manufacturing. Fracking has created a boom in manufacturing jobs and the cheaper gas prices has made manufacturing more competitive. It is estimated that 4.2% of all manufacturing jobs in 2025 will be linked to the United States’ current oil and natural gas surge.