Predicting Our Civilization’s Future
David Benatar, a self-described “anti-natalist” philosopher, believes that life is so bad, so painful, that human beings should stop having children for reasons of compassion.
From this article: “While good people go to great lengths to spare their children from suffering, few of them seem to notice that the one (and only) guaranteed way to prevent all the suffering of their children is not to bring those children into existence in the first place,” he writes, in a 2006 book called “Better Never to Have Been: The Harm of Coming Into Existence.” In Benatar’s view, reproducing is intrinsically cruel and irresponsible—not just because a horrible fate can befall anyone, but because life itself is “permeated by badness.” In part for this reason, he thinks that the world would be a better place if sentient life disappeared altogether.
This viewpoint may be extreme, but weaker forms of it are quite common; many couples refrain from having children because they deem the world to be too cruel a place in which to live.
In my view, technology is the only redeeming part of life in the 21st Century. People in virtually all parts of the world are living longer, healthier and more convenient lives, a function of the progress in science, medical, information and communications technology.
This needs to be contrasted by what life on this planet will probably be like at the end of this century, if the future is simply an extrapolation of the present and recent past, i.e., one characterized by:
• endless and ferocious wars
• greed and selfishness
• ignorance, hate, and racism
• fascist/autocratic governments
• even larger disparity between rich and poor
• a planet ravaged by climate change: droughts, wildfires, water shortages, famines, land loss, ocean acidification, and loss of biodiversity
• stress and hopelessness
• extreme levels of toxicity and related disease
• intensified pressure to conform and consume
Note the interrelation between the points above, for example, greedy people don’t care about climate change, mega-consumers becomes stressed, hopeless people don’t care enough to vote, the scarcity of resources drives war, poor people can’t afford to educate themselves, ignorant people can’t perceive that they’re voting for fascists, consumerism drives toxicity, etc.
Wow, that’s some heavy-duty pessimism, isn’t it? Sure. But is this all a fait accompli? Not at all. For one, the power of love and kindness might defeat that of greed and selfishness. Personally, I don’t see this happening; in fact, I see a world becoming increasingly corrupt, tribal and cruel despite the efforts of tens of millions of people to make it otherwise. There are more than 200,000 groups on this planet whose missions are environmental and social justice, though they seem to be losing the battle.
The gating factor may be what’s making life worth living right here and now, and again, that’s technology. If we can harness our understanding of science and our skills in engineering to remove the stress of resource scarcity to the point that there’s really not to much to fight about, while focusing on our civilization’s capacity to conduct itself sustainably, things could be OK. That’s one big if.
Et tu, Craig?
I’m afraid that you’re just not looking at a long enough arc of history in this. 100 years ago, the average lifespan for an American was ~54 years for whites man and ~47 years for African Americans.
Now, that has increased to ~79 years on average. We’re healthier, we’re well fed, and our biggest threats are: too much high energy foods, recreational smoking, recreational drinking, recreational drug use, and idiots playing with guns.
Every aspect of life has improved immeasurably, despite the fact that we’ve warmed the planet by ~1 degree C and we’ve dumped billions of tons of toxins into the air and trillions of tons of trash into the land and sea.
Every single country on Earth – with the exceptions of Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and North Korea – have longer life expectancy and more luxury than what they had 100 years ago.
In virtually all cases, the chief cause of strife and the chief cause of suffering within society is when the population grows at a rate that outpaces the growth in resources and productivity. Technology continually improves to use resources more efficiently and produce/collect/harvest more resources, but if the population grows too quickly (say by doubling the expected longevity of the population and reducing infant and child mortality by ~90%), then there is excess labor for the available jobs, and combined with inequality there is extreme excess demand for the available resources.
But every nation has been working to reduce their fertility, in some cases to shocking degrees. A full 117 countries now have fertility rates that are below 2.1 children per woman (replacement rate), and 120 countries now have population growth rates below 1%/year – a rate that is relatively easy for technology to keep pace with. Thus the lifestyles of these countries are improving year-over-year as technology continues to develop, allowing more efficient use of more resources for greater production.
The number of people living in extreme poverty is dropping year-over-year. The rate may be slow (~2.4% reduction, year-over-year), but it is continual. The number of people dying in war may surge any given year, but decade-over-decade it has generally decreased. Certainly generation-over-generation it has decreased markedly… though we will see a rapid increase this generation with the fall of Pax Americana; soon Europe, Russia, China, and even India will quickly rise and fill in the void. While there is hesitance to accept the flood of refugees, the economies of every single industrialized nation desperately needs immigrants, and when the dumbest members of those nations pull their heads out of their asses and reform their immigration laws, then there will be even less strain on those communities, and more opportunities for growth.
I do see the Middle East suffering pretty badly, and Sub-Saharan Africa continuing to suffer, for the next half century… but overall humanity will see an improved life in the next half century compared to that seen in the previous one.
Trump is the worst thing that has happened to America since the 19th century… but he too shall pass, and we will recover. The arc of human history spirals upwards. We won’t fall to the depths that we fell to in the past, and when winds change we will fly higher than the heights that we attained under Obama.. though it may take a debt spiral – and a huge correction – for us to find our way again.
I acknowledge all the good stuff about the improving length and quality of life; in fact, I referred to it in my piece. As I like to say, “It hasn’t been a bad 800 years,” i.e., since the Magna Carta, yet I’m deeply disturbed by the recent past. It could be just a blip, like the Third Reich, after which civilization will return to its upward course.
Keep in mind that Trump isn’t the cause of the issues; he’s a result of the depravity of American culture. And the U.S. isn’t alone with far-right-wing nutjob leaders newly coming on the scene; look at Central Europe.
I honestly believe that we’re facing an existential crisis, and that we have a fairly short period of time, perhaps a few decades, in which to turn this around.
Craig,
Oh woe! The Great Doom is upon us ! The apocalypse is nigh ! We should all repent our hedonistic ways wear sack cloth and ashes and be fearful of the bogeyman in the big House at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue !
An exciting scenario, and one which has fascinated story tellers, philosophers and religious prophets since the beginning of human civilization.
Such pessimistic predictions are usually born from the frustration of pundits who discover themselves and their idea’s ignored or irrelevant.
The rest of us get along with the same optimistic response humans have always used to counteract the contents of Pandora’s box, Hope.
The tide of human affairs is never smooth or predictable. The very essence of human affairs involves conflict, rivalry and diversity. The paradox of human civilization is we are essentially social animals who evolved to rely on social development to survive.
Most of the misery and conflict among humans is created by a fear of insecurity. Fear is a powerful motivation and humans are attracted, from time to time, by individuals, ideologies and philosophies offering “certainty”.
Certainty, is comforting and requires a degree of loss of individual freedom to achieve greater cohesion and organization. Cohesion needs enforcement,adherence and conformity to a particular agenda or doctrine.
That’s where the paradox kicks in. Humans are also immensely curious, ingenious and diverse individuals. Human civilization has evolved to embrace conflict as a method of “Forrest clearing”. Thus stagnant or decaying social orders are constantly, often violently changed, overthrown or reformed.
The results aren’t always peaceful, or even beneficial, but given the imperfect nature of human conduct, inevitable. Every successful society is only and uneasy agreement to compromise the two sides of human nature, to sufficiently accommodate both passions.
So far, despite a wobbly path, human progress has proved astonishingly successful! There’s no reason to believe our species will not continue to progress and prosper (if some what erratically) forever!
The bogeyman in the White House is merely an essential, if discomforting instrument in the process of readjusting the US to a new place in the global dynamic, and a long overdue process of internal reform. His time will pass and with the passing of his era, most of the debris and hubris of the “American Century’ will also pass.
The USA will find the path of reform and restructure bumpy, but a bright new future beacons.
( Er,..and if it all ends tomorrow, well, it’s been fun 🙂 )
Craig,
Pondering the world’s moral short comings and ruminating pessimistically about the world going to hell in a hand cart may be fascinating, but not at the expense of ignoring events currently occurring.
This week a number of important events occurred affecting energy technologies and policies with far reaching ramifications.
A report by economist Dr Philip Verleger warns new regulations from the IMO, reducing sulfur emissions in shipping fuels, ( 3.5% down to 0,5 %) could lead to a shortage of low-sulfur diesel fuel by 2020.
The study ” Crude, The Economic Crisis of 2020, and Policies to Prevent Catastrophe” is available at;
https://www.realclearenergy.org/2018//26/the_regulation_that_could_push_oil_to_200_286337.html
President Trump has ordered a comprehensive revue of the report by US experts and suitable counter measures. A large part of his mission to Russia was to ensure low cost oil and energy prices for the US consumer for the period of his term, especially when dealing with Iran.
Another development has been the rise of illogical and desperate resistance to the Trump administration’s reversal of Obama’s ” War on Coal”.
Having spent the last 18 months declaring the President’s revival of the Coal industry a “total failure”, Democrats are now outraged by the success of coal, especially in export and new waste technology.
This week we’ve seen the absurd spectacle of democrat Governor Jay Inslee of Washington State attempting to prevent American coal being exported from Wyoming and Montana overseas.
Meanwhile his democrat comrade in Congress spent the week rallying opposition to licensing technology that turns Coal waste in valuable environmentally friendly by products (including 100 year old slag piles) on the basis that such technology might justify the President’s support of the Coal industry and that must be stopped at any cost.
On top of this activity, President Trump has brought the arrogant European Union to heel forcing President Jean-Claude Juncker, to make massive concessions on trade. The deal could be the start of a massive free trade deal between Europe and the U.S. involving zero tariffs in most areas (apart from the auto industry).
If the EU accepts even half of the Trump demands, the concessions by the EU will be massive, but so will the economic benefits for both parties.
This could be the most significant achievement by President Trump since tax law reform.
The President’s ace card is US energy, especially gas. This year has seen a steep decline in Wind Power generation in the EU (even CNBC reported on the decline). Attempts to bolster EU figures by including the UK, no longer part of the EU, reveal desperation.
Germany and other EU powers are reeling from unprecedented high energy prices resulting in slowing economic growth and forcing politically unpopular deals with Russia .
US natural gas is suddenly very attractive, especially as Putin has now decided to support US energy policies and less interested in cheap energy for the EU. The EU now finds itself squeezed between the two powers having put too many eggs in the renewable fuel basket.
EU President hates the USA, but loathes and detests President Trump even more! It must be galling for Jean-Claude Juncker to be forced to come, cap in hand, to Washington. Fortunately, for Jean-Claude, President Trump is magnanimous and accommodating in victory, even allowing opponents face saving publicity at his own expence to aid the appearance of success for EU politicians to sell the deal back home.
In other news the President has been quietly upgrading US relations with Taiwan, changing Obama slavish support for a ” One China ” policy, to a policy of it’s ” up to the people of the island of Taiwan to determine their future”.
This is part of the Trump administration’s policy of containment pf the People Republic of China’s expansionist intentions.
With all these events occurring, in a single week, isn’t worry about the future in 80 years just a little presumptuous ?