Considerable Yet Finite: Gauging the Damage Trump’s Done to the World
Speaking about climate change mitigation and other efforts to achieve some level of environmental responsibility, senior energy analyst Glenn Doty writes, “I would guess that the election of Trump set the world back ~6 years, assuming we get rid of his administration in 2020. That will hurt our efforts, and will cause tremendous harm. But there are far more than 6 years in the future, and we haven’t lost them all.”
First, let’s note that this is an excellent point, and that recent spate of pessimism isn’t all that well-founded.
Re: Glenn’s “guess,” yes, all we can do is guess, though six years seems reasonable to me. Here are a few of the obvious wild cards:
• The steady increase in cost effectiveness of renewables, especially solar and wind, as well as the paralleled increase in cost effectiveness of the peripheral technologies: storage, efficiency solutions, electric transportation, smart grid, etc. As we covered in Bullish on Renewable Energy, once we hit a tipping point, it won’t matter how hostile the government is to clean energy and how supportive of fossil fuels. No one buys something that’s dirty if it’s more expensive than something that’s clean.
• The welling of support from within the U.S. for removing Trump, if only via the vote in 2020, and the concurrent rejoining the rest of the developed world, which is working hard on environmentally sustainable technologies and policies.
• The toughening of America. It’s possible that the insanity of the Trump administration has increased America’s resolve to re-establish itself as a leader, not only in technology, but in decency as well. How much support is there for putting kids in cages and coddling the world’s dictators? How many people like our environmental policies: climate change denial, environmental deregulation, encouraging the consumption of coal, opening up public lands for oil and gas exploration, and litigation against state and local governments that are trying desperately to protect what’s left of the environment? Not many, and fewer every day.
Glenn’s right; we’re behind, but we haven’t lost yet.
Craig,
Analysts (senior or other wise)shouldn’t just “guess” to make prediction to accommodate prejudices or ideological commitments.
President Trump’s policies may have set back, or even derailed items an agenda you believe is important, but so what? It would supremely arrogant for you to assume your agenda is the only viable path to environmental and economic progress.
There is no “welling of support from within the US for removing Trump”, which you now admit may be only expressed in the 2020 election (only a few months ago you were claiming he was facing immediate impeachment). The President’s support has stayed remarkably consistent
It will be astonishing if the GOP can hold the house in the mid-terms, historically voters tend to try and reverse the balance of power in mid tem elections with a protest vote.
The Mueller Inquiry appears to have, more or less, run out of further sensational allegations and the US people seemed to be becoming inured to media driven scandal. If the Mueller Inquiry terminates with a whimper and no really damaging conclusion, the voters will punish the Democrats in the 2020 elections.
You claim;
“re-establish itself (USA) as a (“World”) leader in decency” !
The capacity for Americans to indulge in delusion never ceases to astonish. No one, except a certain type of American, wouldn’t find that statement hilarious or ludicrous. The US has many virtues and strengths, but moral decency isn’t one.
Your claim;
“The steady increase in cost effectiveness of renewables, especially solar and wind, as well as the paralleled increase in cost effectiveness of the peripheral technologies: storage, efficiency solutions, electric transportation, smart grid, etc”
Rapid progress and cost reductions for any new technology are to be expected within the initial period when coming off a low base.
The problem with Wind and solar is the limits on the technology are now becoming better known.
The massive government subsidies and “rigged” markets required to promote these technologies are beginning to be objectively analyzed by more impartial and less ideologically driven analysts.
The indications aren’t good for these industries future expansion. In the important developing world conventional fuels are being developed at a much faster rate, and even in Europe renewable power sources are facing real problems.
The biggest gains for clean tech have been made as a result of deploying Hydraulic fracturing technology to create cheap and plentiful Natural Gas.
Initially slow to develop, but that to the support and impetus provided by the President personally, and the administration in general, Clean(er) Coal technology is making astonishing progress. Not only can this technology dramatically reduce harmful emission, but make coal economically viable and once again competitive.
Likewise, advanced nuclear power has also been neglected for ideological reasons except in India and China.
Any competent analyst investigates, reviews and objectively examines all available information before producing any conclusions or opinions.
Every honest analyst will experience the pain of discovering the facts simply don’t support their ideas, beliefs or preconceptions. The temptation to put a thumb on the scales is enormous, especially when deeply held beliefs are at stake.
Meanwhile the Russians are cutting down the largest forests in the world at the rate of about 10,000 sq miles per year. There are no rehabilitation or replacement programs in place, most the land becomes barren or toxic swamp.These are the most difficult of all forest habitats to rehabilitate.
President Trump has sought an embargo to be placed on the export of this timber ( the activity is actually illegal even in Russia) but is only supported by a hand full of small allies. Most of the timber is sold to China, Germany and Japan.
In comparison to this scale of destruction, everything else seems a bit minuscule.
I completely agree with Glenn. Even though Trump is setting us back 6 years, we still have extra time. Not too much though so we should try and get rid of him as soon as possible. I don’t mean by eradicating him, but rather educating people about his lies and what he is doing wrong so they won’t vote for him again. We only have two years to convince everyone that he is lying to himself and everyone.
Susan,
Which of Trump’s polices would you like to see reversed ?
1) Do you want a policy of open borders ?
2) Do you want a to see American working class folk driven into abject poverty and the despair of unemployment by increased globalization ?
3) Do you want weak and ineffectual foreign policy where the US taxpayer endlessly funds the national defense of other nations at the expense of US interests?
4) Do you really believe US unemployment can be helped by more welfare and social workers, or more real employment.
5) Do you really believe that environmental problems can be solve by more bureaucrats and national debt ?
If you do, then vote Democrat !
A Democrat administration will tell you what you want to hear. A Democrat administration will be polite, polished, nicely spin doctored and as reassuring as the captain of the Titanic just before hitting the iceberg.
What a Democrat administration won’t tell you is what you ‘need’ to hear. The Democrats will not fight with China, or tell Europe to get of its collective backside and look after itself.
The Democrats will politely and in highly seductive tones, weave the dream of ‘appeasement’ where America the great will solve all the world’s problems as an act of moral leadership.
What they won’t tell you, is the world is not clamoring for American “leadership”! China is determined to first steal, then eat your lunch, afterwards give you the bill!
The President isn’t wrong, he may have an odd sort of personality to be President, but it’s policies that count !
President Obama gained accolades for what he said, but was quietly laughed at by those nations who compete, rival or hate America for his weak and largely symbolic gestures.
President Trump was initially laughed at publicly, but his policies have wiped the smile off those nations who compete, rival or hate America. They now take him vary seriously indeed, and have learned the price of disregarding the old adage, “Crazy, like a Fox”, when dealing with President Trump !
All the things the anti-trump forces said couldn’t be done, the President has accomplished.
President Trump hasn’t set America back six years, in two years he’s dragged America into a new era.
But, as a citizen you are fully entitled to vote for a return to gentille decay, weak, ineffective but “symbolic” gestures. You may return to to the politics of appeasement and delusion where a globalized world becomes dominated by Chinese nationalism.
The NYT, CNN, WP and New Yorker will reassure you it deserves to be “China’s century”.
America’s “allies”, are only allies out of self interest, not because of American moral leadership !
If the US is perceived as weak most allies will change sides. (Very politely, and still praising American values) but self interest will determine the Geo-political shift.
China isn’t the old USSR. The Chinese learn quickly and with greater cohesion and efficiency.
As I’ve been saying for the last five years, the US has been fighting, and losing, a desperate trade war with a cunning, resourceful and very determined opponent. In recent years China has become wealthy enough to embark on a process of large scale military modernization and expansion.
I beg American to think hard about the future. Great Britain made the mistake in the 1930’s of appeasement. The voters place there faith in the high-minded, delusions of Baldwin and Chamberlain, the League of Nations, intentional conferences, consensus, etc.
Everything said about Trump was said of Churchill. Churchill was derided as a crass, boorish, treacherous lout, with very scandalous and peculiar personal habits, alcoholism, vanity, racism, causing outlandish offense, both at home and abroad.
The majority of the press loathed Churchill, but events vindicated Churchill.
America can be more fortunate. By electing President Trump, the US has begun the process of reform and rebuilding before it’s too late. The “war” or rivalry will last for decades at the geo-political balance remains in question.
Now is the time to lock in policies that future administrations can follow before it’s too late.
The policies must be pragmatic, affordable and based on objectivity, not vague ideology.
But, hey if you want America to lose, vote Democrat ! (everyone’s always so kind and sympathetic to those who come second, saying “well, at least they tried”).
Is that you vision for America, “at least we tried” ?