More from Tech Maven Fritz Maffry
Here’s another installment on the tech sector from my Kansas City-based colleague Fritz Maffry. – ed
What a difference two months makes, and some better information
The narrative of two months ago had the press parroting some shorts talking about the failure of Tesla, but now much better information is coming out on what Tesla has actually accomplished. Besides a market cap almost twice Ford’s, they are selling more electrics than all the competitors combined, and moving on to another level of technology and execution at scale. The $35K model is in sight, as is the crossover, and then electric trucks.
Larry Ellison, the richest man in California, has weighed in highlighting the accomplishments. No one will question the quality of results, accomplishments, and advantage Tesla is building. This will carry over into big new segments of business and growth, while taking the business landscape to ever more uncomfortable competitive postures for the traditional industry.
Tech starts to back their own
Mark Cuban and Larry Ellison pointed out how wrong minded it was to want disruption and then trash the very players who bring the entrepreneurial magic to the table. Elon is heading towards a network of space satellites providing broadband. Space X is outperforming the traditional military industrial complex. Demonstrating speed and laser focus,Tesla is again, with full force, doing things differently to outmaneuver the competitors. The greatest innovator of our time is now being recognized; see the latest edition of Popular Mechanics. It is time for the public to wake up and understand what is going on.
Who is to lead the autonomous efforts, and what is in the near-term plans?
Uber’s efforts were unproductive in autonomous. GM has shown problems. It looks like Google is the clear leader on actual practical movement on autonomous trials. That is why you can’t single-thread an initiative; you have to allow for a competitive leap frog disruptive game in terms of how you embrace and facilitate the advances coming along. Google is in small scale fully autonomous pilots now. The Streetcar is simply obsolete, and it is becoming ridiculous to not acknowledge that in policy. We are betting against the advancement engines of Tesla and Google, and that’s not smart.
The wave of electric transformation is going into many segments
Electric bikes are growing fantastically as a percentage of sales. Electric scooters just took root in most cities. Uber is going to all electric for rides in London. Google’s autonomous efforts are all electric. Tesla is turning the market upside down. Meanwhile we are stuck in neutral, working with coal utilities and their exclusive proxy, which is, again, not smart. Autonomous will produce further upheaval in the market and it will be almost all electric.
Then there is the large scale conversion of sub-segments to electrify: lawn mowers, garden tractors, construction equipment, farm equipment, it keeps on going. To underestimate the scope of all this is foolish. Bosch illustrated the trends at the Louisville outdoor power equipment show. The change is big already, and accelerating from here. Tesla market cap is closing on $60 billion, GM $45 billion, Ford $30 billion. Who does the smart money think is likely to win the future?
Big oil and dirty games, there will be elbows thrown
There are political initiatives underway from the Koch brothers to undermine solar and provide a boost for big oil; many parties are also intent on undermining the expansion of electric vehicle infrastructure. From Reuters: The U.S. oil industry has spent a record $30 million to fight a ballot measure in Washington state that would create the nation’s first carbon tax, double what an alliance of green groups and billionaire activists has spent to support it, according to state data reviewed by Reuters.
The fight is big, and the fight is dirty, but tech is moving too fast for its opponents, mostly in large scale campaigns are hidden behind the scenes. More soon.
Craig,
In your enthusiasm, you make some astonishing jumps in association. By combining a whole lot of vaguely related items from a wish list and using a “dogs eat meat, cats eat meat, therefore dogs are cats”, type logic, you’ve reached some astonishing conclusions.
The success of Tesla Inc, is not dependent on carbon tax or the coal industry.(although cheaper electric supply will be a factor).
Carbon taxes etc, are not only ineffective and damage economic growth in general, but don’t accomplish the purpose for which the were created.
Rising prices for Natural Gas and LPG, combined with new clean(er) coal technology is producing a global resurgence in coal production to meet increasing demand for electric generation.
I love ultra bullish investors like Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, and Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster who predict Tesla will be making 11 million vehicles per year by 2022, and while it’s true Tesla is in better shape going into 2019 than it ever has been, the company still faces many challenges.
Disagreeing with these Tesla ultra-bulls doesn’t mean I’m anti-Tesla, I remain a shareholder and Tesla owner, but it does mean I subscribe to a more reality-based scenario where Tesla is a participant in a more realistically expanding market for EVs.
The key to EV success is better ESD and fast charging. Both will take time to create the necessary technology and infrastructure certainly a longer time frame than 3 years.
Tesla’s achievements have been amazing, but a reality check is needed although the growth of the company has been remarkable, sales and production remain still small and occupy a niche market of affluent owners. (Toyota makes more cars per week than Tesla’s entire production)
Even in that niche market, Tesla is beginning to find a growing number of competitors and rivals. Tesla’s army of fanatically loyal supporters will remain devoted but eventually as the market, (and the fans) mature, the ultra-bulls fever will begin diminish and Tesla will be exposed to the same problems as as all large scale manufacturers.(even more so, if relying on sales in the Chinese domestic market).
But the real danger to the smooth adoption of all clean technology, comes not from reactionaries or imaginary enemies, but overly enthusiastic advocates and pundits raising impossible expectations and combining political-ideological agenda to developments in technology.
I was hoping it would be clear that I didn’t write this.
Craig,
Yes Craig, I realize your didn’t write the article, but you endorse the articles as if it were your own sentiments, also your ferocious (and gratuitous) defense of Fritz last time, created the impression of collaboration, or at least simpatico.
The good news is as the public slowly grow used to EV technology,(in a large part thanks to the vision and industrial commercial ability of Elon Musk,technical genius of J B Straubel, and phenomenal success of Tesla Inc) the ferocity of the debate of EV technology has moderated.
The naysayers are far less numerous and moderate, while the wild eyed extreme enthusiasts seem to have retreated back to small groups and ceased to be so obnoxiously vocal.
For EV technology commercialization of fast charging is occurring which will lead to greater acceptance, although the high percentage of cobalt in lithium batteries remains a concern.
Fast charging is not as simple as those promoting the technology would have the public believe. While it’s true great advances are being made, like all new technology often downsides are overlooked and claims should be carefully analyzed.
What has always puzzled me is the relatively small number of ardent EV fanatics and pundits, actually own and EV of any sort ! I hope this anomaly disappears as EV’s become more mainstream.