New Update from Tech Maven Fritz Maffry

Here’s the latest from Fritz. – Craig 

Tesla is about to do something remarkable in the transit space

Tesla is beginning to unveil parts of their transit (innovation in public transportation) disruption strategy. They are hinting at the transit shuttle format, based on current platform technology. Of course, they have the crossover, the $35K Model 3, the truck, and the transit disruptor all in the pipeline, relatively near-term. In partially calling the tune of change in the industry, Tesla has influenced a reorganization of the entire legacy US players, and German auto industry combined.

I am rating the likelihood of a successful go-forward on these next lines of business at 80%. The building blocks are mostly already sorted out. GM is making what seems like rational adjustments to the market directions. Unfortunately, creative destruction is the norm and setting expectations otherwise is not likely to be anything but a political sideshow; change comes how it comes.  More here.

Trump and China, awakening to the necessary future priority of competing focused on technology

China has no intention of codifying inferiority; rather, they have a bold plan to win the future with technology. Out of the negotiations on trade, it became obvious that settling on agricultural commodities for the present was not of what was important. Instead, the rules of the road forward on technology competition became central to the discussions.

Trump is getting an education on tech; it is notable that the CEOs of a great many tech communities are shuttling to DC to talk about competitive issues in tech and the future. Trump is realizing that you cannot stunt tech and win the future, despite his having relatively no natural instincts for technology. Still, the companies he is having advise him are overweighted in the traditional tech segments, though less in the disruptive tech orientations that are more likely to leapfrog current state.

I would pay more attention to Tesla and Amazon, and less to Oracle and IBM.  Speculation that an easy solution is at hand on these matters is not well considered, and the arrest of the Chinese networking firm executive  is unlikely to be an accidental tangent. China has targeted tech superiority, with a vital plan to win the future. We can pretend there is no rivalry, but that would be the position of a patsy. There could be a win-win structured, but it would have to be out of the box from anything we have heard to date.

VW and Porsche, some interesting recognition

Uncharacteristically, both companies came out with praise, and earnest praise at that, for the remarkable journey of Tesla in leading a new paradigm. Both acknowledged the skilled and effectual leadership in influencing the entire industry to change. As you know, I have been saying with the Tesla sales juggernaut, and VW all in prioritization of electric, that we had arrived at the tipping point. Now the VW CEO is more or less confirming that that is also the view of the company’s leadership. The industry is transforming in a big way, with change dynamics that will dwarf current common expectations. As we saw with the ramp-up of the Tesla Model 3 and huge sales growth, and the $50 billion investment by VW in electric, the industry model and futures have, indeed, tipped.

More here.

The Remarkable Underestimation, tech and the electric ecosystem

My how things have changed. The upcoming CES show will feature smart assistants, autonomous shuttles, care robotics, and AI systems. These things were negligible just a handful of years ago; now they are central and dominating themes. Still, people underestimate the further thrust of these key technologies, as we have mentioned care robotics, electric agriculture,  preventative digital healthcare led by direct user engagement (such as smart watches monitoring and also treating blood pressure and heart irregularities).

California is now at a 5% run rate for electrics.. Just wait until that is true of the entire US; things will have definitively changed for the future. It is funny how a core technology set in combination will impact so much of the economy. It is not Trump’s long suit to understand disruption and inflection points.  Bottling up creative destruction at the moment of sweeping change is not how you beat the competition.

There are other ways to take care of the people of Ohio. GM is making adjustments for good reason, based on all analyst perspectives we have seen. Note that the technology issues featured and tech and transportation were relatively non-factors just a few years ago; look how far they have come. Tesla and Amazon are “Fusion Disruptors”.

More here.

Apple, when was the last time they made you think “wow”

I would contend that the US needs to throw the ball deep on technology. China is doing exactly that, so do we meet a strong plan with a non plan?  With all these amazing technologies aligning for new possibilities, it is somewhat interesting that Apple has not shown a new “wow” to the public in sometime. Amazon and Tesla seem to have serial innovations that have been successful, with more on the front burner. The fertile seed of identifying a new possibility, great execution, and then commercialization seem to have weakened.

The Apple user experience is admired, but it seems important that they show the ability to generate less evolutionary iterations and show some major new capabilities to the market.  Of course Apple is working on many things, bit it does seem that getting too safe in forward plans is not generating confidence in future advantage and exploitation of new market opportunities.

I admire the Apple position on privacy and user considerations. At the same time, it seems they need to start showing more new things of potential, or the leadership momentum will go to others on a bolder and more creative track.  It is hard to see with the current trend lines that Apple is executing with the same adroit moves able to innovate at the pace of Tesla or Amazon to achieve future growth.

In closing

Though many hold contrary views, tech is the growth engine of the future. Tech supremacy cannot be taken for granted. A great competition is underway, with a smart and capable rival. There will be cooperation, though in the main there will be competition.  For firms to one-off level-set the game is simply not well supported by reality. Technology futures, not a current trade number in agricultural commodities is where the rub is.

The American fount of innovation can be directly viewed at the upcoming CES show. Changes will now be coming along faster and at larger scale than is commonly understood, as the innovation dynamics and ingredients for great new disruptive solutions are ready.  You can extrapolate the future somewhat by guesstimating the advancement of the best technologies you see at CES, with iterative improvements projected over a five year period.

Google will be showing their autonomous tech and featuring it in the keynote. Nissan will show their new electric car products. Electric bikes will be prevalent.  Smart assistants are growing ever more functional. Who puts the elements together in a superior fashion getting the tone just right?  We still believe Tesla and Amazon are doing that faster and better than anyone else.

Nvidia and Softbank have a hard game to play to straddle the US/China fence.  The best interpretation we can make of probable near-term innovation is that it is much larger in impact over the next five years than it has been in the past five years, and grows to great scale. There is much to criticize about current technology industry practices, though still it is the source of future advancement, and is largely underestimated in terms of futures over the next half decade.

Tesla is barely into their cycle of disruption, and already the status quo is transformed. What do you think happens when the rush to high tide is underway, expect large scale creative disruption? You can choose to believe what you want, but a hot rivalry is underway for tech supremacy and to win the future; to ignore this is to disadvantage your future.